Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Hikari Tsushin Inc $258, price $250, upside +3.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Hikari Tsushin Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $95.75 – $286.11 · fair‑value band $143.79 – $413.92 · the $250.00 price screens below the $257.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Hikari Tsushin in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hikari Tsushin is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Hikari Tsushin, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision and sale of gas and electricity in Japan and internationally. It operates through Electricity and Gas, Telecommunication, Beverage, Insurance, Finance, Solution, and Commission-based Sales segments.
Show more
Hikari Tsushin, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision and sale of gas and electricity in Japan and internationally. It operates through Electricity and Gas, Telecommunication, Beverage, Insurance, Finance, Solution, and Commission-based Sales segments. The company also offers communication line and supplementary services; life and non-life insurance products, and warranty services; and microfinance. In addition, it manufactures, sells, and delivers natural mineral water; provides industry-specific solutions, such as customer and payment management systems; and operates as a sales agency for various telecommunication products. The company serves individual and corporate customers. Hikari Tsushin, Inc. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Toshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) currently trades at $250.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $257.71, implying the stock looks roughly 3.0% fairly valued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $143.79 (bear) to $413.92 (bull), the price of $250.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hikari Tsushin Inc reported revenue of ¥687B in FY2025 versus ¥559B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥118B in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) $21.49 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 17.1% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 3%, HKTGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $143.79Fair Value $257.71Bull $413.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 15%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.9% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $257.71 versus a price of $250.00, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HKTGF?
Our model-based fair value for Hikari Tsushin Inc is $257.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $250.00.
What is the quality score of HKTGF?
Hikari Tsushin Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $257.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $143.79, optimistic scenario $413.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hikari Tsushin Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $257.71, about +3% upside versus a price of $250.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $143.79, optimistic scenario $413.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Hikari Tsushin Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥735B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hikari Tsushin Inc pay a dividend?
Hikari Tsushin Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hikari Tsushin Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKTGF use?
Our models discount Hikari Tsushin Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hikari Tsushin Inc that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Hikari Tsushin Inc grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hikari Tsushin Inc (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.64 %: that much free cash flow Hikari Tsushin Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hikari Tsushin Inc it is $257.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $250.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hikari Tsushin Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HKTGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $250.00, fair value $257.71, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKTGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($250.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($257.71). For Hikari Tsushin Inc the two are $7.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hikari Tsushin Inc worth?
The market values Hikari Tsushin Inc at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $250.00; our models calculate a fair value of $257.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKTGF?
Our models span a range for Hikari Tsushin Inc: cautious scenario $143.79, base $257.71, optimistic $413.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $250.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKTGF?
Hikari Tsushin Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $257.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hikari Tsushin Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKTGF from its 52-week high?
Hikari Tsushin Inc trades at $250.00, about 13% below its 52-week high of $286.11 and 19% above the low of $210.00 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $257.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hikari Tsushin Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hikari Tsushin Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $250.00, calculated fair value $257.71 (+3%), Quality Score 51/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKTGF calculated?
We run Hikari Tsushin Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $257.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hikari Tsushin Inc currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $250.00. Our model-based fair value is $257.71, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hikari Tsushin Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($143.79 to $413.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Hikari Tsushin Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The market capitalisation of Hikari Tsushin Inc is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Earnings per share at Hikari Tsushin Inc are $21.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The dividend yield of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 2.2% (payout 25.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The net margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
The operating margin of Hikari Tsushin Inc is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Revenue at Hikari Tsushin Inc is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF)?
Earnings per share at Hikari Tsushin Inc are growing +160% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hikari Tsushin Inc (HKTGF) carry?
The net debt of Hikari Tsushin Inc is ¥464B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hikari Tsushin Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Hikari Tsushin Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026