Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Helloworld Travel Ltd stock A$1.73, price A$1.36, upside +27.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.05 – A$2.61 · fair‑value band A$1.28 – A$2.17 · the A$1.36 price screens below the A$1.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Helloworld Travel Limited operates as a travel distribution company in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. The company provides international and domestic travel products and services, as well as operates retail distribution networks of travel agents and coaches.
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It also operates retail travel brands, including Helloworld Travel"the Travel Professionals, Helloworld Business Travel, Magellan Travel, Express Travel Group, Alatus, Independent Travel Group, Select Travel Group, First Travel Group, Mobile Travel Agents, My Travel Group, The Travel Brokers, and iTalktravel and Cruise; and distributes travel products and solutions under the Viva Holidays, Sunlover Holidays, Territory Discoveries, Asia Escape Holidays, Ready Rooms, Ultimate Journeys, and GO Holidays names.
In addition, the company provides Inbound and destination management services; air consolidation services under the AirTickets, Express Tickets, and SmartTickets brands; technological ticketing solutions to travel agents and networks; and transport operation and ground handling services.
Further, it offers access to a database of various ocean and river cruise products, including itineraries, cruise lines, ocean and river cruise vessels, and information on various ports, as well as cruise packaging and services.
The company was formerly known as Helloworld Limited and changed its name to Helloworld Travel Limited in April 2017. Helloworld Travel Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Southbank, Australia.
Stock analysis
Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) currently trades at A$1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.73, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$3.25 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.36 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.2600, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$1.28 (bear) to A$2.17 (bull), the price of A$1.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Helloworld Travel Ltd reported revenue of A$202M in FY2026 versus A$63.5M in FY2022, a compound +33.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.0M in FY2026, compounding −67.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$222M (≈ $154M) Micro · P/E ratio 135.5 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 28%, HLO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.28Fair Value A$1.73BullA$2.17
Price A$1.36 · Upside +27.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−52.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−59.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−59.6% vs −24.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−148% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price and +6.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+27.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)135.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.73 versus a price of A$1.36, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HLO?
Our model-based fair value for Helloworld Travel Ltd is A$1.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.36.
What is the quality score of HLO?
Helloworld Travel Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.28, optimistic scenario A$2.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Helloworld Travel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.73, about +28% upside versus a price of A$1.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.28, optimistic scenario A$2.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Helloworld Travel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$202M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Helloworld Travel Ltd pay a dividend?
Helloworld Travel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Helloworld Travel Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.1 per share a year, a dividend yield of 7.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.63 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Helloworld Travel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLO use?
Our models discount Helloworld Travel Ltd at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Helloworld Travel Ltd that is -5.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Helloworld Travel Ltd grew +38.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Helloworld Travel Ltd (-5.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.01 %: that much free cash flow Helloworld Travel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Helloworld Travel Ltd it is A$1.73 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$1.36. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Helloworld Travel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HLO trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.36, fair value A$1.73, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.73). For Helloworld Travel Ltd the two are A$0.3750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Helloworld Travel Ltd worth?
The market values Helloworld Travel Ltd at about A$222M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$1.36; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLO?
Our models span a range for Helloworld Travel Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.28, base A$1.73, optimistic A$2.17 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$1.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLO?
Helloworld Travel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 135.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.73 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 17.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of HLO?
The PEG ratio of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Helloworld Travel Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLO from its 52-week high?
Helloworld Travel Ltd trades at A$1.36, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$1.95 and 3% above the low of A$1.31 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Helloworld Travel Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Helloworld Travel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$1.36, calculated fair value A$1.73 (+28%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLO calculated?
We run Helloworld Travel Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$1.73 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Helloworld Travel Ltd currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was A$1.36. Our model-based fair value is A$1.73, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Helloworld Travel Ltd right now?
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) come from?
Earnings per share at Helloworld Travel Ltd grew −0.5 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −8.5 %, EBIT margin +10.9 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Helloworld Travel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The market capitalisation of Helloworld Travel Ltd is A$222M (≈ $154M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 0.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Earnings per share at Helloworld Travel Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 135.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The dividend yield of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 7.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The net margin of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Helloworld Travel Ltd is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
The operating margin of Helloworld Travel Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Revenue at Helloworld Travel Ltd is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO)?
Earnings per share at Helloworld Travel Ltd are growing +149% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Helloworld Travel Ltd (HLO) hold?
Helloworld Travel Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$40.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026