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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings $7.04, price $14.84, upside -52.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · US · ISIN GRS298343005

HE HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings

HLPMF · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $7.04 · Strongly overvalued (−52.6%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +15.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!4.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 40/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$14.84 $3.47 Fair Value $7.04 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.47 – $14.84 · fair‑value band $4.93 – $9.79 · the $14.84 price screens above the $7.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments.

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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates in the energy sector in Greece, the Southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean. It operates through Refining, Supply and Trading; Marketing; Production and Trading of Petrochemicals; Power; Exploration and Production of Hydrocarbons; and Electromobility segments. The company engages in the refining, supply, and trading of crude oil and petroleum products; marketing of fuels; wholesale trading of oil products; production and marketing of polypropylene, BOPP/cast films, and solvents; trading of imported plastics and chemicals; and production, trading, and supply of power. It is also involved in the wholesale trading and distribution of natural gas; production and trading of energy produced by renewable energy sources; exploration and production of hydrocarbons; and provision of treasury, consulting, and engineering services, as well as IT services. In addition, the company engages in the owning and marketing of vessels; leasing of other commercial properties, such as highway service stations; operation and leasing of petrol stations; production and packaging of lubricants; logistics and distribution of LPG; real estate activities; and operation of fuel storage facilities and various underground crude oil pipelines. The company was formerly known as Hellenic Petroleum Holdings Societe Anonyme and changed its name to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. in September 2022. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings S.A. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Marousi, Greece.

Stock analysis

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) currently trades at $14.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.04, 52.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $9.73 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $14.84 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.14, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $4.93 (bear) to $9.79 (bull), the price of $14.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported revenue of €11.6B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was €173M in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) $1.71 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −53%, HLPMF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.93 Fair Value $7.04 Bull $9.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8393 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $7.84 $8.19 $8.85 74
EPV $3.47 $5.14 $6.58 73
ROIC Compounder $3.47 $5.14 $6.58 69
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $4.34 $7.95 $9.84 64
EPV $3.47 $5.14 $6.58 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.43 $9.73 $12.00 67
DDM Multi-Stage $7.43 $10.04 $13.05 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.70 $8.94 $11.17 63
P/S Multiple $8.14 $10.85 $13.56 58
P/B Multiple $8.14 $10.85 $13.56 55
EV/EBIT $3.78 $7.40 $11.01 63
EV/EBITDA $5.09 $9.15 $13.20 65
EV/Revenue $6.09 $11.74 $17.38 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.92 $6.59 $9.84 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.84 $8.19 $8.85 74
ROIC Compounder $3.47 $5.14 $6.58 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.85 $6.93 $9.00 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 92

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.0% vs −0.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

HLPMF screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (48 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

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Oil & gas

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HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings · Fair Value
$7.04 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLPMF

Frequently asked questions

Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.04 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.84, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLPMF?
Our model-based fair value for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is $7.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $14.84.
What is the quality score of HLPMF?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.93, optimistic scenario $9.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.04, about −53% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.93, optimistic scenario $9.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings pay a dividend?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings it is $7.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.84. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HLPMF trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.84, fair value $7.04, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLPMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.04). For HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings the two are $7.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings worth?
The market values HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.84; our models calculate a fair value of $7.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLPMF?
Our models span a range for HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings: cautious scenario $4.93, base $7.04, optimistic $9.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HLPMF from its 52-week high?
HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings trades at $14.84, at its 52-week high of $14.84 and 69% above the low of $8.79 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.84, calculated fair value $7.04 (−53%), Quality Score 53/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLPMF calculated?
We run HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $14.84. Our model-based fair value is $7.04, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.93 to $9.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) come from?
Earnings per share at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings grew +2.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The market capitalisation of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 8.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
Earnings per share at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings are $1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The dividend yield of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 4.0% (payout 35.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The net margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
The operating margin of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
Revenue at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF)?
Earnings per share at HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) generate?
The free cash flow of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is −€9.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (HLPMF) carry?
The net debt of HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings is €2.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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