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Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Hemlo Mining Corp $1.05, price $4.58, upside -77.0%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US

HM Hemlo Mining Corp logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Hemlo Mining Corp

HMMCF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.05 · Strongly overvalued (−77.0%)
!Quality 20/100
!Loss-making · -7.9% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$13.50 $0.1500 Fair Value $1.05 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1500 – $13.50 · fair‑value band $0.7820 – $1.56 · the $4.58 price screens above the $1.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Hemlo Mining Corp. engages in the production and operation of gold mining assets in Canada. Its flagship asset is the 100% owned Hemlo gold mine covering approximately 45,000 hectares located at Marathon in northwestern Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as Carcetti Capital Corp. and changed its name to Hemlo Mining Corp. in November 2025.

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Hemlo Mining Corp. engages in the production and operation of gold mining assets in Canada. Its flagship asset is the 100% owned Hemlo gold mine covering approximately 45,000 hectares located at Marathon in northwestern Ontario, Canada. The company was formerly known as Carcetti Capital Corp. and changed its name to Hemlo Mining Corp. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 2025 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF) currently trades at $4.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.05, 77.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.7820 (bear) to $1.56 (bull), the price of $4.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Hemlo Mining Corp reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$36.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B · P/S ratio 7.27 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9400 · Net margin −7.9% · Return on equity −5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −38.7% · Operating margin 30.6% · Revenue (TTM) $186M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 452% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, HMMCF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.7820 Fair Value $1.05 Bull $1.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.24 $1.84 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9200 $1.24 $1.84 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

HMMCF screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

Compare Hemlo Mining Corp with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 233 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 22 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −77.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 3.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −7.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 8.47× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEM $121.43 $133.57 +10%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥30.01 ¥44.45 +48%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $194.48 $219.71 +13%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $142.92 $87.78 −39%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $245.81 $270.39 +10%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $99.03 $88.60 −11%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $25.05 $51.30 +105%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.49 $277.74 +10%
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥29.07 ¥23.61 −19%
Pan American Silver Corp PAAS $48.04 $59.13 +23%

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Hemlo Mining Corp · Fair Value
$1.05 −77%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hemlo Mining Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMMCF

Frequently asked questions

Is Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.05 versus a price of $4.58, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMMCF?
Our model-based fair value for Hemlo Mining Corp is $1.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.58.
What is the quality score of HMMCF?
Hemlo Mining Corp has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7820, optimistic scenario $1.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hemlo Mining Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.05, about −77% upside versus a price of $4.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7820, optimistic scenario $1.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
Hemlo Mining Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $186M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hemlo Mining Corp it is $1.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.58. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hemlo Mining Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMMCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.58, fair value $1.05, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMMCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.05). For Hemlo Mining Corp the two are $3.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hemlo Mining Corp worth?
The market values Hemlo Mining Corp at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.58; our models calculate a fair value of $1.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMMCF?
Our models span a range for Hemlo Mining Corp: cautious scenario $0.7820, base $1.05, optimistic $1.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hemlo Mining Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −5.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMMCF from its 52-week high?
Hemlo Mining Corp trades at $4.58, about 30% below its 52-week high of $6.54 and 452% above the low of $0.8293 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hemlo Mining Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hemlo Mining Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.58, calculated fair value $1.05 (−77%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMMCF calculated?
We run Hemlo Mining Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hemlo Mining Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $4.58. Our model-based fair value is $1.05, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hemlo Mining Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.7820 to $1.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Hemlo Mining Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The market capitalisation of Hemlo Mining Corp is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hemlo Mining Corp is 7.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
Earnings per share at Hemlo Mining Corp are $−0.9400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The net margin of Hemlo Mining Corp is −7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hemlo Mining Corp is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hemlo Mining Corp is −38.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF)?
The operating margin of Hemlo Mining Corp is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does Hemlo Mining Corp (HMMCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Hemlo Mining Corp is −$31.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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