HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · DE · Market cap €190M
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from €41.02 to €48.12 (+17.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 19% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (€25.27 to €105.81). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from €25.27 (bear) to €105.81 (bull), base €48.12. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.29 – €74.12 · fair‑value band €25.27 – €105.81 · the €40.60 price screens below the €48.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) currently trades at €40.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €48.12, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HMS Bergbau AG generated revenue of €1.3B at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.9%. Net debt stands at €55.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €25.27 (bear case) to €105.81 (bull case); at €40.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 19%, HMU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€313.48) versus Economic Profit (€7.76). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HMS Bergbau AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in trading and distributing coal and other energy raw materials to energy producers, cement manufacturers, and industrial consumers worldwide.
Full company description
HMS Bergbau AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in trading and distributing coal and other energy raw materials to energy producers, cement manufacturers, and industrial consumers worldwide. The company provides energy resources, including coking coal, anthracite, PCI coal, thermal coal, and petcoke, oil and gas products, comprising marine fuels, alternative and renewable fuels, marine lubricants and other related products and services; metals and minerals, such as iron ores, manganese ores, copper, niobium, tantalum, beryllium, and lithium; and renewable and other products comprising wood pellets, biomass, hydrogen, cementitious and cement products, and fertilizers. It also offers port management, chartering, operational processing, technical monitoring, storage management, beneficiation, quality assessment, and loading; and inland transportation through barges, trucks, and rail, as well as just-in-time delivery services. Additionally, the company engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties. The company serves steel and cement producers; and industrial companies, such as glassworks, paper mills, and waste processing plants, as well as power plant companies. HMS Bergbau AG was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HMS Bergbau AG reported revenue of €1.2B in FY2025 versus €428M in FY2021, a compound +30.1%/yr. Reported net income was €54.8M in FY2025, compounding +102.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +28.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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