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HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of HMS Bergbau AG €23.80, price €39.60, upside -39.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · DE · ISIN DE0006061104

HB Some data Sep 23, 2026

HMS Bergbau AG

HMU · XETRA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €23.80 · Strongly overvalued (−40%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +35.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
·2.78% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range €9.32 to €50.68
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€74.12 €17.29 Fair Value €23.80 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €17.29 – €74.12 · fair‑value band €9.32 – €50.68 · the €39.60 price screens above the €23.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

HMS Bergbau AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in trading and distributing coal and other energy raw materials to energy producers, cement manufacturers, and industrial consumers worldwide.

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HMS Bergbau AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in trading and distributing coal and other energy raw materials to energy producers, cement manufacturers, and industrial consumers worldwide. The company provides energy resources, including coking coal, anthracite, PCI coal, thermal coal, and petcoke, oil and gas products, comprising marine fuels, alternative and renewable fuels, marine lubricants and other related products and services; metals and minerals, such as iron ores, manganese ores, copper, niobium, tantalum, beryllium, and lithium; and renewable and other products comprising wood pellets, biomass, hydrogen, cementitious and cement products, and fertilizers. It also offers port management, chartering, operational processing, technical monitoring, storage management, beneficiation, quality assessment, and loading; and inland transportation through barges, trucks, and rail, as well as just-in-time delivery services. Additionally, the company engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties. The company serves steel and cement producers; and industrial companies, such as glassworks, paper mills, and waste processing plants, as well as power plant companies. HMS Bergbau AG was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.

Stock analysis

HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) currently trades at €39.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.80, implying the stock looks roughly 66.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €187.31 per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the €39.60 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €7.76, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €9.32 (bear) to €50.68 (bull), the price of €39.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

HMS Bergbau AG reported revenue of €1.2B in FY2025 versus €428M in FY2021, a compound +30.1%/yr. Reported net income was €54.8M in FY2025, compounding +102.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap €181M · P/E ratio 3.3 · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) €12.15 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 61.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −40%, HMU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €9.32 Fair Value €23.80 Bull €50.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€8.05 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €5.65 €7.76 €9.48 74
Owner Earnings €89.49 €187.31 €358.05 72
ROIC Compounder €5.65 €7.76 €9.48 72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €89.49 €187.31 €358.05 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €82.02 €571.96 €802.66 63
Lynch FV €193.00 €275.72 €358.43 61
PEG = 1.0 €193.00 €275.72 €358.43 57
EPV €5.65 €7.76 €9.48 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €7.31 €12.25 €15.90 68
DDM Multi-Stage €7.31 €11.62 €13.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €126.64 €168.86 €211.07 63
P/S Multiple €153.78 €205.04 €256.30 58
P/B Multiple €25.27 €33.70 €42.12 55
EV/EBIT €12.29 €20.37 €28.45 64
EV/EBITDA €3.13 €8.16 €13.19 62
EV/Revenue €17.46 €30.06 €42.67 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €9.36 €12.54 €18.72 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €97.59 €201.82 €6,317 64
ROIC Compounder €5.65 €7.76 €9.48 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €219.44 €313.48 €407.53 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +38.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.80% vs 69%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 340% above its own trend.

HMU screens 66% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −40% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 61% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.08× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 3.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.17× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)46 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)56 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥19.77 ¥12.45 −37%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 12,300 IDR 4,674 IDR −62%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹424.55 ₹464.01 +9%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥14.23 ¥14.62 +3%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥28.24 ¥20.48 −27%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.38 ¥9.97 −35%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,070 IDR 355.01 IDR −67%

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HMS Bergbau AG · Fair Value
€23.80 −66%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HMS Bergbau AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMU

Frequently asked questions

Is HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €23.80 versus a price of €39.60, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMU?
Our model-based fair value for HMS Bergbau AG is €23.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €39.60.
What is the quality score of HMU?
HMS Bergbau AG has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €23.80 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.32, optimistic scenario €50.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HMS Bergbau AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €23.80, about −40% upside versus a price of €39.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.32, optimistic scenario €50.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
HMS Bergbau AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does HMS Bergbau AG pay a dividend?
HMS Bergbau AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HMS Bergbau AG it is €23.80 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €39.60. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HMS Bergbau AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HMU trades above its calculated fair value: price €39.60, fair value €23.80, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€39.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€23.80). For HMS Bergbau AG the two are €15.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HMS Bergbau AG worth?
The market values HMS Bergbau AG at about €181M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €39.60; our models calculate a fair value of €23.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMU?
Our models span a range for HMS Bergbau AG: cautious scenario €9.32, base €23.80, optimistic €50.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €39.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMU?
HMS Bergbau AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €23.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Balance-sheet figures for HMS Bergbau AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 61.3%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMU from its 52-week high?
HMS Bergbau AG trades at €39.60, about 25% below its 52-week high of €53.00 and 5% above the low of €37.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €23.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HMS Bergbau AG?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HMS Bergbau AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €39.60, calculated fair value €23.80 (−40%), Quality Score 47/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMU calculated?
We run HMS Bergbau AG through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €23.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. HMS Bergbau AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €39.60. Our model-based fair value is €23.80, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HMS Bergbau AG right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€9.32 to €50.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) come from?
Earnings per share at HMS Bergbau AG grew +55.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +26.8 %, EBIT margin +8.3 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of HMS Bergbau AG

How large is the market capitalisation of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The market capitalisation of HMS Bergbau AG is €181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HMS Bergbau AG is 0.15 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Earnings per share at HMS Bergbau AG are €12.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The dividend yield of HMS Bergbau AG is 2.8% (payout 9.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The net margin of HMS Bergbau AG is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HMS Bergbau AG is 61.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HMS Bergbau AG is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
The operating margin of HMS Bergbau AG is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Revenue at HMS Bergbau AG is growing −8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HMS Bergbau AG (HMU)?
Earnings per share at HMS Bergbau AG are growing +540% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) generate?
The free cash flow of HMS Bergbau AG is −€49.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HMS Bergbau AG (HMU) carry?
The net debt of HMS Bergbau AG is €55.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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