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Data-driven stock valuation

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Defensive · VN · Market cap 7.2T VND · ISIN VN000000HNG9

At a glance

HA Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC HNG · VN
Price6,500 VND
Fair Value1,358 VND
Upside−79.1%
Quality37/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 379% above our fair value of 1,358 VND.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC is 1,358 VND per share against a price of 6,500 VND, so the fair value sits 79% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −36.6 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range 1,013 VND to 2,027 VND

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 1 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −3.0% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2,027 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (1,013 VND to 2,027 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

13,650 VND 3,350 VND Fair Value 1,358 VND May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 3,350 VND – 13,650 VND · fair‑value band 1,013 VND – 2,027 VND · the 6,500 VND price screens above the 1,358 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG) currently trades at 6,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,358 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 378.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 474B VND. Revenue declined 48.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −47.2%. Net debt stands at 8.2T VND. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Scenario range: 1,013 VND (bear) to 2,027 VND (bull), the price of 6,500 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −79%, HNG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) best evidence 1,017 VND 1,363 VND 2,035 VND 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) best evidence 1,017 VND 1,363 VND 2,035 VND 54

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Key figures & financial health

EPS (TTM) −1,102 VND
Net margin −257% TTM
Return on equity −47.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −5.0% avg 4y
Operating margin −356% TTM
Revenue (TTM) 474B VND TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY) −48.0% 3y avg −36.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −13.0B VND FY2023
Net debt 8.2T VND FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the cultivation and trading of fruit, rubber, oil palm, and other crops in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The company operates through Agriculture, and Trading and Services segments.

Full company description

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the cultivation and trading of fruit, rubber, oil palm, and other crops in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The company operates through Agriculture, and Trading and Services segments. It is also engaged in production and sale of coffee and tea, as well as seedlings; providing planting services, and crop related materials; and industrial construction and civil works. The company was formerly known as Hoang Anh Gia Lai Rubber Joint Stock Company. Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Pleiku, Vietnam.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC reported revenue of 606B VND in FY2023 versus 2.4T VND in FY2020, a compound −36.6%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1T VND in FY2023.

Growth Quality 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2023)
606B VND
Latest YoY
−18.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−36.6%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.0% (2020) → −130.1% (2023)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 2 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Revenue −36.6%/yr
FY20 2.4T VND
FY21 1.2T VND
FY22 742B VND
FY23 606B VND
Net income
FY20 20.9B VND
FY21 −1.1T VND
FY22 −3.6T VND
FY23 −1.1T VND

HNG screens 379% overvalued. Compare with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNG

Peer Group

Farm Products · 286 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −79% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −48% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.90× · Highest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 28
FUTURE0 · sector 20
PAST0 · sector 19
HEALTH55 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $84.61 $38.02 −55%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.15 ¥47.42 +18%
Bunge Global SA BG $118.71 $56.19 −53%
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $51.42 $28.60 −44%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥13.80 ¥11.18 −19%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 201.80 kr 256.14 +27%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥201.06 ¥143.09 −29%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 32.60 MYR 23.34 MYR −28%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 23.40 THB 43.24 THB +85%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 2,960 IDR 6,818 IDR +130%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,358 VND versus a price of 6,500 VND, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HNG?
Our model-based fair value for Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC is 1,358 VND (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6,500 VND.
What is the quality score of HNG?
Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,358 VND (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,013 VND, optimistic scenario 2,027 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,358 VND, about −79% upside versus a price of 6,500 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1,013 VND, optimistic scenario 2,027 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG)?
Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 474B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC it is 1,358 VND per share (as of Sep 6, 2026), against a price of 6,500 VND. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 6, 2026, HNG trades above its calculated fair value: price 6,500 VND, fair value 1,358 VND, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6,500 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,358 VND). For Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC the two are 5,142 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC worth?
The market values Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC at about 7.2T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 6, 2026). Per share that is 6,500 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 1,358 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNG?
Our models span a range for Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC: cautious scenario 1,013 VND, base 1,358 VND, optimistic 2,027 VND per share (as of Sep 6, 2026, price 6,500 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (HNG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC (as of Sep 6, 2026): return on equity −47.2%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNG from its 52-week high?
Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC trades at 6,500 VND, about 24% below its 52-week high of 8,500 VND and 30% above the low of 5,000 VND (as of Sep 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,358 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 6, 2026: price 6,500 VND, calculated fair value 1,358 VND (−79%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNG calculated?
We run Hoang Anh Gia Lai Agricultural JSC through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,358 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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