Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hallador Energy Company $17.63, price $14.51, upside +21.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.01 – $23.81 · fair‑value band $9.10 – $26.34 · the $14.51 price screens below the $17.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Operations and Coal Operations.
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Hallador Energy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent power producer and fuel company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Electric Operations and Coal Operations. The company owns and operates the Meron power plant, a 1,080 megawatts coal-fired power generating station that consists of two steam turbine generators and sells accredited capacity to utilities and other energy market participants. It also sells wholesale energy to utilities, generation and transmission cooperatives, and other energy market participants. In addition, the company operates the Oaktown mining complex, a coal mining and processing operation located in Knox and Sullivan counties, Indiana, and Crawford and Lawrence counties, Illinois. Hallador Energy Company was founded in 1949 and is based in Terre Haute, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) currently trades at $14.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.63, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $23.43 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $14.51 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.27, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.10 (bear) to $26.34 (bull), the price of $14.51 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hallador Energy Company reported revenue of $469M in FY2025 versus $248M in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was $41.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $766M · P/E ratio 725.5 · P/S ratio 64.7 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity −0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.2% · Operating margin −12.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 22%, HNRG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.10Fair Value $17.63Bull $26.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0146 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 13%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.7% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Hallador Energy Company with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+22% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−12% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hallador Energy Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNRG
Frequently asked questions
Is Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.63 versus a price of $14.51, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HNRG?
Our model-based fair value for Hallador Energy Company is $17.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.51.
What is the quality score of HNRG?
Hallador Energy Company has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.10, optimistic scenario $26.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hallador Energy Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.63, about +22% upside versus a price of $14.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.10, optimistic scenario $26.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Hallador Energy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $455M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hallador Energy Company would have to grow free cash flow by +30.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNRG use?
Our models discount Hallador Energy Company at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hallador Energy Company that is +30.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hallador Energy Company grew +14.0 % a year. The price currently implies +30.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hallador Energy Company (+30.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.74 %: that much free cash flow Hallador Energy Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hallador Energy Company it is $17.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.51. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hallador Energy Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HNRG trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.51, fair value $17.63, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.63). For Hallador Energy Company the two are $3.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hallador Energy Company worth?
The market values Hallador Energy Company at about $766M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.51; our models calculate a fair value of $17.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNRG?
Our models span a range for Hallador Energy Company: cautious scenario $9.10, base $17.63, optimistic $26.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HNRG?
The PEG ratio of Hallador Energy Company is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hallador Energy Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNRG from its 52-week high?
Hallador Energy Company trades at $14.51, about 39% below its 52-week high of $23.81 and 6% above the low of $13.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hallador Energy Company?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hallador Energy Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.51, calculated fair value $17.63 (+22%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNRG calculated?
We run Hallador Energy Company through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hallador Energy Company currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.51. Our model-based fair value is $17.63, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hallador Energy Company right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.10 to $26.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) come from?
Earnings per share at Hallador Energy Company grew +9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hallador Energy Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The market capitalisation of Hallador Energy Company is $766M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Hallador Energy Company is 725.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hallador Energy Company is 64.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Earnings per share at Hallador Energy Company are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 725.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The net margin of Hallador Energy Company is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hallador Energy Company is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hallador Energy Company is −6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
The operating margin of Hallador Energy Company is −12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Revenue at Hallador Energy Company is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?
Earnings per share at Hallador Energy Company are growing +14.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) carry?
The net debt of Hallador Energy Company is $29.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026