Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock $6.83, price $7.14, that is 4.3% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.89 – $36.33 · fair‑value band $4.78 – $8.87 · the $7.14 price screens above the $6.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico.
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The company was formerly known as HPK Energy, LP and changed its name to HighPeak Energy, Inc. in August 2020. The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock analysis
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) currently trades at $7.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.83, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.42 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $7.14 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.84, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.78 (bear) to $8.87 (bull), the price of $7.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp reported revenue of $863M in FY2025 versus $220M in FY2021, a compound +40.7%/yr. Reported net income was $19.0M in FY2025, compounding −23.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $937M Small · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7000 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −10.3% · Return on equity −5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 29.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −4%, HPK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.78Fair Value $6.83Bull$8.87
Price $7.14 · Downside -4.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$7.72$8.00$8.5176
EPV$1.75$3.19$4.4271
ROIC Compounder$1.75$3.19$4.4270
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.02$7.11$9.9863
Lynch FV$2.47$3.53$4.5961
PEG = 1.0$2.47$3.53$4.5957
EPV$1.75$3.19$4.4271
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$1.55$3.02$4.4667
DDM Multi-Stage$1.55$2.65$3.2067
Multiples
P/E Multiple$1.57$2.10$2.6263
P/S Multiple$1.91$2.55$3.1958
P/B Multiple$16.98$22.63$28.2955
EV/EBIT$0.7400$3.70$6.6759
EV/EBITDA$12.23$19.02$25.8266
EV/Revenuen/a$0.0300>$0.120050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$6.29$8.42$12.5754
Economic Profit
Residual Income$7.72$8.00$8.5176
ROIC Compounder$1.75$3.19$4.4270
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$2.79$3.99$5.1867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+103.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.7%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−119% → 17%
Compare Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−4.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPK
Frequently asked questions
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.83 versus a price of $7.14, about 4% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HPK?
Our model-based fair value for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $6.83 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.14.
What is the quality score of HPK?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.83 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.78, optimistic scenario $8.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.83, about 4% lower versus a price of $7.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $4.78, optimistic scenario $8.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $863M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp pay a dividend?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp pays a dividend of $0.08 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Dec 1, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2021. The payout ratio is 53.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp it is $6.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $7.14. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HPK trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.14, fair value $6.83, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.83). For Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp the two are $0.3104 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp worth?
The market values Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp at about $937M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $7.14; our models calculate a fair value of $6.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPK?
Our models span a range for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp: cautious scenario $4.78, base $6.83, optimistic $8.87 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $7.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −5.5%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPK from its 52-week high?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp trades at $7.14, about 38% below its 52-week high of $11.57 and 84% above the low of $3.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $7.14, calculated fair value $6.83 (−4%), Quality Score 32/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPK calculated?
We run Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $7.14. Our model-based fair value is $6.83, about 4% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($4.78 to $8.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The market capitalisation of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $937M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Earnings per share at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp are $−0.7000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The dividend yield of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The net margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is −10.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is −5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The operating margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Revenue at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Earnings per share at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp are growing +215% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) generate?
The free cash flow of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is −$10.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) carry?
The net debt of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $1.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026