HighPeak Energy, Inc (HPK) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $917M
HighPeak Energy, Inc
HPK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $6.16 to $10.54 (+71.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 46% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.89 – $36.33 · fair‑value band $7.38 – $10.54 · the $7.20 price screens below the $10.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
HighPeak Energy, Inc (HPK) currently trades at $7.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.54, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HighPeak Energy, Inc generated revenue of $807M at a net margin of -18.0%. Revenue declined 20.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.3%. Net debt stands at $1.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.38 (bear case) to $10.54 (bull case); at $7.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 46%, HPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($8.46) versus Economic Profit ($2.03). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico.
Full company description
HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The company was formerly known as HPK Energy, LP and changed its name to HighPeak Energy, Inc. in August 2020. The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HighPeak Energy, Inc reported revenue of $863M in FY2025 versus $220M in FY2021, a compound +40.7%/yr. Reported net income was $19.0M in FY2025, compounding −23.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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