Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp $10.54, price $7.89, upside +33.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.89 – $36.33 · fair‑value band $7.38 – $10.54 · the $7.89 price screens below the $10.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico.
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HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. It engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. The company was formerly known as HPK Energy, LP and changed its name to HighPeak Energy, Inc. in August 2020. The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock analysis
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) currently trades at $7.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.54, implying the stock looks roughly 25.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.46 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $7.89 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.03, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.38 (bear) to $10.54 (bull), the price of $7.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp reported revenue of $863M in FY2025 versus $220M in FY2021, a compound +40.7%/yr. Reported net income was $19.0M in FY2025, compounding −23.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $988M · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) $−1.15 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity −9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1% · Operating margin 16.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 103% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 34%, HPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.38Fair Value $10.54Bull $10.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+103.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.7%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−119% → 17%
Compare Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 307 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+34% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−18% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPK
Frequently asked questions
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.54 versus a price of $7.89, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HPK?
Our model-based fair value for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $10.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.89.
What is the quality score of HPK?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.38, optimistic scenario $10.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.54, about +34% upside versus a price of $7.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.38, optimistic scenario $10.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $807M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp pay a dividend?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp it is $10.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.89. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HPK trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.89, fair value $10.54, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.54). For Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp the two are $2.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp worth?
The market values Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp at about $988M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.89; our models calculate a fair value of $10.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPK?
Our models span a range for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp: cautious scenario $7.38, base $10.54, optimistic $10.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.3%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPK from its 52-week high?
Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp trades at $7.89, about 9% below its 52-week high of $8.64 and 103% above the low of $3.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.89, calculated fair value $10.54 (+34%), Quality Score 31/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPK calculated?
We run Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.89. Our model-based fair value is $10.54, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The market capitalisation of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $988M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 1.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Earnings per share at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp are $−1.15. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The dividend yield of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 1.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The net margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is −9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
The operating margin of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Revenue at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is growing −20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK)?
Earnings per share at Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp are growing −9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) generate?
The free cash flow of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is −$10.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp (HPK) carry?
The net debt of Highpeak Energy Acquisition Corp is $1.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026