Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Horizon Oil Ltd A$0.35, price A$0.22, upside +59.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0314 – A$0.2689 · fair‑value band A$0.2000 – A$0.5200 · the A$0.2200 price screens below the A$0.3500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Horizon Oil Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in China, New Zealand, Australia, and Thailand. It also involved in the exploration and evaluation of hydrocarbons. Horizon Oil Limited was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) currently trades at A$0.2200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3500, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.4100 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$0.2200 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2000 (bear) to A$0.5200 (bull), the price of A$0.2200 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Horizon Oil Ltd reported revenue of $104M in FY2025 versus $70.6M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was $12.2M in FY2025, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap A$358M (≈ $251M) · P/E ratio 22.0 · P/S ratio 2.59 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Dividend yield 13.6% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 59%, HZN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2000Fair Value A$0.3500Bull A$0.5200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.7% vs −2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+59.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)13.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3500 versus a price of A$0.2200, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HZN?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Oil Ltd is A$0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2200.
What is the quality score of HZN?
Horizon Oil Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2000, optimistic scenario A$0.5200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Oil Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3500, about +59% upside versus a price of A$0.2200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2000, optimistic scenario A$0.5200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Horizon Oil Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $94.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Horizon Oil Ltd pay a dividend?
Horizon Oil Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horizon Oil Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HZN use?
Our models discount Horizon Oil Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horizon Oil Ltd that is +5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horizon Oil Ltd grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horizon Oil Ltd (+5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.30 %: that much free cash flow Horizon Oil Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Oil Ltd it is A$0.3500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.2200. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Oil Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HZN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.2200, fair value A$0.3500, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3500). For Horizon Oil Ltd the two are A$0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Oil Ltd worth?
The market values Horizon Oil Ltd at about A$358M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HZN?
Our models span a range for Horizon Oil Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2000, base A$0.3500, optimistic A$0.5200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.2200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HZN?
Horizon Oil Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 3.9, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HZN?
The PEG ratio of Horizon Oil Ltd is 0.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Oil Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HZN from its 52-week high?
Horizon Oil Ltd trades at A$0.2200, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$0.2689 and 20% above the low of A$0.1840 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Oil Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Oil Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.2200, calculated fair value A$0.3500 (+59%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HZN calculated?
We run Horizon Oil Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Oil Ltd currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$0.2200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3500, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Oil Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.2000 to A$0.5200). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) come from?
Earnings per share at Horizon Oil Ltd grew +5.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Horizon Oil Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Oil Ltd is A$358M (≈ $251M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Oil Ltd is 2.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Oil Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The dividend yield of Horizon Oil Ltd is 13.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The net margin of Horizon Oil Ltd is 11.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Oil Ltd is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Oil Ltd is 20.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
The operating margin of Horizon Oil Ltd is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Revenue at Horizon Oil Ltd is growing −20.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Oil Ltd are growing −65.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) hold?
Horizon Oil Ltd holds more cash than debt, $14.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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