Intercos Spa (ICOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Intercos Spa €11.15, price €13.30, upside -16.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range €9.29 – €16.31 · fair‑value band €5.30 – €16.21 · the €13.30 price screens above the €11.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Intercos S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, creates, produces, and markets cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company operates through Make Up, Skincare, and Hair & Body segments. It offers powders, foundation, lipsticks, mascara, nail polish, delivery systems, creams, serums, dermo cosmetic lotions, and hair care products.
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Intercos S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, creates, produces, and markets cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company operates through Make Up, Skincare, and Hair & Body segments. It offers powders, foundation, lipsticks, mascara, nail polish, delivery systems, creams, serums, dermo cosmetic lotions, and hair care products. The company sells its products to multinational brands, emerging brands, and retailers. Intercos S.p.A. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Agrate Brianza, Italy.
Stock analysis
Intercos Spa (ICOS) currently trades at €13.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.15, implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €24.31 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the €13.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.59, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.30 (bear) to €16.21 (bull), the price of €13.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Intercos Spa reported revenue of €1.0B in FY2025 versus €43.2M in FY2021, a compound +121.9%/yr. Reported net income was €49.8M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.3B · P/E ratio 26.1 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) €0.5100 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −16%, ICOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.30Fair Value €11.15Bull €16.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2290 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+159.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Intercos Spa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ICOS
Frequently asked questions
Is Intercos Spa (ICOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.15 versus a price of €13.30, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ICOS?
Our model-based fair value for Intercos Spa is €11.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.30.
What is the quality score of ICOS?
Intercos Spa has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €11.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.30, optimistic scenario €16.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Intercos Spa stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €11.15, about −16% upside versus a price of €13.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.30, optimistic scenario €16.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Intercos Spa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Intercos Spa pay a dividend?
Intercos Spa currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Intercos Spa would have to grow free cash flow by +22.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ICOS use?
Our models discount Intercos Spa at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Intercos Spa that is +22.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Intercos Spa (ICOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Intercos Spa grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +22.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Intercos Spa (ICOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Intercos Spa (+22.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.85 %: that much free cash flow Intercos Spa produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Intercos Spa it is €11.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €13.30. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Intercos Spa stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ICOS trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.30, fair value €11.15, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ICOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€11.15). For Intercos Spa the two are €2.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Intercos Spa worth?
The market values Intercos Spa at about €1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €13.30; our models calculate a fair value of €11.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ICOS?
Our models span a range for Intercos Spa: cautious scenario €5.30, base €11.15, optimistic €16.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €13.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ICOS?
Intercos Spa trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €11.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Intercos Spa (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ICOS from its 52-week high?
Intercos Spa trades at €13.30, about 7% below its 52-week high of €14.28 and 28% above the low of €10.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €11.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Intercos Spa?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Intercos Spa stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €13.30, calculated fair value €11.15 (−16%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ICOS calculated?
We run Intercos Spa through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €11.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Intercos Spa itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €13.30. Our model-based fair value is €11.15, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Intercos Spa right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€5.30 to €16.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Intercos Spa
How large is the market capitalisation of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The market capitalisation of Intercos Spa is €1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Intercos Spa is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Earnings per share at Intercos Spa are €0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The dividend yield of Intercos Spa is 1.5% (payout 38.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The net margin of Intercos Spa is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Intercos Spa is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Intercos Spa is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
The operating margin of Intercos Spa is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Revenue at Intercos Spa is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +160%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Intercos Spa (ICOS)?
Earnings per share at Intercos Spa are growing +44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Intercos Spa (ICOS) carry?
The net debt of Intercos Spa is €57.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026