Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Indika Energy Tbk stock IDR 528, price IDR 2,190, upside -75.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 890.10 IDR – 4,221 IDR · fair‑value band 407.36 IDR – 670.38 IDR · the 2,190 IDR price screens above the 528.45 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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PT. Indika Energy Tbk operates as an integrated energy company in Indonesia. The company operates through Energy Resources, Energy Services, Energy Infrastructure, and Other Portfolio segments.
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It provides procurement of electricity, gas, steam, hot water, and air; consultation services related to solar power installation projects; operation and maintenance of electricity installation; leasing of solar power plant or electricity installation; IPP solar power plant related activities; owns and operates coal-fired power plant in Cirebon, West Java; and produces coal.
The company also involved in the mining, logistic, engineering, procurement, construction, and services in the coal, and oil and gas sectors; bauxite mining; manufacturing business of wheels vehicles, batteries, medical equipment, pharmaceutical drug, and other healthcare supporting service; and retail trading business for two-wheeler motor vehicle and its spare parts or accessories.
In addition, it provides transportation, port operation, and related services; and management, logistics, maintenance, and management consultancy service.
Further, the company is involved in the investment, general trading, marketing, financing, coal and mineral trading, agriculture, plantation and farming, printing, and workshop activities; and development, construction, and trading of real estate, as well as consultancy services for construction, industry, and infrastructure.
Additionally, it provides stevedoring, business and management consultancy, gold mining, information and communication, manpower, travelling agency, insurance, vehicle repair maintenance, transportation and selling of metal mineral commodities, rental and leasing, waste management, and digital technology services, as well as professional, scientific, and technical services.
The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) currently trades at 2,190 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 528.45 IDR, 75.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 2,731 IDR per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the 2,190 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 115.66 IDR, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 407.36 IDR (bear) to 670.38 IDR (bull), the price of 2,190 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Indika Energy Tbk reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $3.1B in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $6.0M in FY2025, compounding −43.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.5T IDR (≈ $642M) Small · P/E ratio 43.5 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) 50.37 IDR · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.0% · Operating margin 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −76%, INDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (115.66 IDR to 3,171 IDR). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear407.36 IDRFair Value 528.45 IDRBull670.38 IDR
Price 2,190 IDR · Upside -75.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (40.99 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−75.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets0.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)39.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.29× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow28.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG3.93× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Indika Energy Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INDY
Frequently asked questions
Is Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 528.45 IDR versus a price of 2,190 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INDY?
Our model-based fair value for Indika Energy Tbk is 528.45 IDR (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,190 IDR.
What is the quality score of INDY?
Indika Energy Tbk has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 528.45 IDR (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 407.36 IDR, optimistic scenario 670.38 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indika Energy Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 528.45 IDR, about −76% upside versus a price of 2,190 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 407.36 IDR, optimistic scenario 670.38 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Indika Energy Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indika Energy Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +23.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of INDY use?
Our models discount Indika Energy Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indika Energy Tbk that is +23.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indika Energy Tbk grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +23.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indika Energy Tbk (+23.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.75 %: that much free cash flow Indika Energy Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indika Energy Tbk it is 528.45 IDR per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of 2,190 IDR. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indika Energy Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, INDY trades above its calculated fair value: price 2,190 IDR, fair value 528.45 IDR, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,190 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (528.45 IDR). For Indika Energy Tbk the two are 1,662 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indika Energy Tbk worth?
The market values Indika Energy Tbk at about 11.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is 2,190 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 528.45 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INDY?
Our models span a range for Indika Energy Tbk: cautious scenario 407.36 IDR, base 528.45 IDR, optimistic 670.38 IDR per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price 2,190 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of INDY?
Indika Energy Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 528.45 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.9, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.1.
What is the PEG ratio of INDY?
The PEG ratio of Indika Energy Tbk is 3.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indika Energy Tbk (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INDY from its 52-week high?
Indika Energy Tbk trades at 2,190 IDR, about 48% below its 52-week high of 4,221 IDR and 26% above the low of 1,737 IDR (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 528.45 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indika Energy Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indika Energy Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price 2,190 IDR, calculated fair value 528.45 IDR (−76%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INDY calculated?
We run Indika Energy Tbk through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 528.45 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Indika Energy Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was 2,190 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 528.45 IDR, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indika Energy Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (670.38 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Indika Energy Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The market capitalisation of Indika Energy Tbk is 11.5T IDR (≈ $642M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indika Energy Tbk is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Earnings per share at Indika Energy Tbk are 50.37 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The net margin of Indika Energy Tbk is 0.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indika Energy Tbk is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indika Energy Tbk is 13.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
The operating margin of Indika Energy Tbk is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Revenue at Indika Energy Tbk is growing +39.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indika Energy Tbk (INDY)?
Earnings per share at Indika Energy Tbk are growing +142% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) carry?
The net debt of Indika Energy Tbk is $548M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 24.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 22, 2026