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Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Italgas S.p.A $10.93, price $9.31, upside +17.4%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Italgas S.p.A
ITGGF · USSpeculativeQuality growthUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $10.93 · Undervalued (+17.4%)
!Quality 35/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 72/100
!The models disagree: range $5.74 to $24.55
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.14 – $12.82 · fair‑value band $5.74 – $24.55 · the $9.31 price screens below the $10.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc.
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Italgas S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy, Greece, and Other European Union countries. It operates through Gas distribution, Water Service, and Energy Efficiency segments. The company involved in metering activities and the transportation of gas to households, enterprises, etc. It also engages in collection, adduction, and distribution of water for civil use, drains, and the purification of wastewater. The company operated a distribution network of 156,655 kilometers and water distribution network of 6,300 kilometers. Italgas S.p.A. was founded in 1837 and is based in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) currently trades at $9.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.93, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $16.78 per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the $9.31 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.48, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.74 (bear) to $24.55 (bull), the price of $9.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Italgas S.p.A reported revenue of €3.5B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was €672M in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.7B · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.8200 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 19.2% · Return on equity 19.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 17%, ITGGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.74
Fair Value $10.93
Bull $24.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2934 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings
n/a
$5.80
$22.60
73
Residual Income
$4.90
$6.52
$11.09
73
FCF DCF
$1.00
$10.95
$36.34
69
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.00
$10.95
$36.34
69
Owner Earnings
n/a
$5.80
$22.60
73
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$4.44
$14.23
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.45
$17.74
$36.92
68
5Y P/E Exit
n/a
$8.59
$19.84
68
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$5.57
$17.72
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.61
$15.80
$38.32
60
10Y P/E Exit
n/a
$8.77
$22.82
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.06
$30.35
$42.30
63
Lynch FV
$8.65
$12.35
$16.06
61
PEG = 1.0
$8.65
$12.35
$16.06
57
EPV
$0.5600
$2.48
$4.15
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$10.05
$13.40
$16.76
63
P/S Multiple
$7.29
$9.71
$12.14
58
P/B Multiple
$5.71
$7.61
$9.52
55
EV/EBIT
$4.41
$9.53
$14.65
62
EV/EBITDA
$5.21
$10.60
$15.98
64
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$1.69
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.12
$2.83
$4.23
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.6500
$12.84
$32.33
67
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$4.20
$13.63
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.90
$6.52
$11.09
73
ROIC Compounder
$0.5600
$2.48
$4.15
66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$11.74
$16.78
$21.81
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
35/100
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Profitability
42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
18
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
6
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 35%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.3% a year for the price and −2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−20.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.3%
Watch ITGGF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (11 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Italgas SpA (ITGGF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- Italgas Finds Gas Distribution’s Boring Superpower
- Is Italgas (BIT:IG) Still Attractive After A 63.5% One-Year Surge?
- Italgas SpA (MIL:IG) Q1 2026 Earnings Report Preview: What to Expect
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.10 | €32.79 | +13% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $156.38 | $77.00 | −51% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €45.25 | €45.97 | +2% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $39.50 | $19.90 | −50% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.08 | HK$4.79 | −32% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹172.70 | ₹132.97 | −23% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥18.54 | ¥36.99 | +100% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $36.24 | $32.74 | −10% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$48.76 | HK$107.85 | +121% |
| Southwest Gas Holdings SWX | $81.87 | $57.47 | −30% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.93 versus a price of $9.31, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITGGF?
Our model-based fair value for Italgas S.p.A is $10.93 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.31.
What is the quality score of ITGGF?
Italgas S.p.A has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.93 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.74, optimistic scenario $24.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Italgas S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.93, about +17% upside versus a price of $9.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.74, optimistic scenario $24.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Italgas S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Italgas S.p.A pay a dividend?
Italgas S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Italgas S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +16.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITGGF use?
Our models discount Italgas S.p.A at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Italgas S.p.A that is +16.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Italgas S.p.A grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +16.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Italgas S.p.A (+16.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.40 %: that much free cash flow Italgas S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Italgas S.p.A it is $10.93 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $9.31. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Italgas S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ITGGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.31, fair value $10.93, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITGGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.93). For Italgas S.p.A the two are $1.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Italgas S.p.A worth?
The market values Italgas S.p.A at about $12.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $9.31; our models calculate a fair value of $10.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITGGF?
Our models span a range for Italgas S.p.A: cautious scenario $5.74, base $10.93, optimistic $24.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $9.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ITGGF from its 52-week high?
Italgas S.p.A trades at $9.31, about 27% below its 52-week high of $12.82 and 8% above the low of $8.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Italgas S.p.A?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Italgas S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $9.31, calculated fair value $10.93 (+17%), Quality Score 35/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITGGF calculated?
We run Italgas S.p.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Italgas S.p.A currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.31. Our model-based fair value is $10.93, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Italgas S.p.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.74 to $24.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Italgas S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The market capitalisation of Italgas S.p.A is $12.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Italgas S.p.A is 11.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Italgas S.p.A is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Earnings per share at Italgas S.p.A are $0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The dividend yield of Italgas S.p.A is 4.6% (payout 52.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The net margin of Italgas S.p.A is 19.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Italgas S.p.A is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Italgas S.p.A is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
The operating margin of Italgas S.p.A is 51.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Revenue at Italgas S.p.A is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF)?
Earnings per share at Italgas S.p.A are growing −15.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Italgas S.p.A (ITGGF) carry?
The net debt of Italgas S.p.A is €10.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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