Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk IDR 43,640, price IDR 25,200, upside +73.2%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5,140 IDR – 28,903 IDR · fair‑value band 35,563 IDR – 52,688 IDR · the 25,200 IDR price screens below the 43,640 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining and energy activities. It produces thermal coal for used in coal-fired power plants; and is involved in coal trading, fuel trading, energy marketing, and electricity generation. The company also offers mining contractor services; and solar rooftop installations.
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PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal mining and energy activities. It produces thermal coal for used in coal-fired power plants; and is involved in coal trading, fuel trading, energy marketing, and electricity generation. The company also offers mining contractor services; and solar rooftop installations. It provides its products in China, Japan, India, Philippines, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand, Europe, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in South Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is a subsidiary of Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) currently trades at 25,200 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 43,640 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 49,725 IDR per share, and 21 of the 22 models we run sit above the 25,200 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 19,820 IDR, and 1 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 35,563 IDR (bear) to 52,688 IDR (bull), the price of 25,200 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $189M in FY2025, compounding −20.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 28.5T IDR (≈ $2.8B) · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) 2,882 IDR · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 34.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 73%, ITMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 35,563 IDRFair Value 43,640 IDRBull 52,688 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,108 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.5% a year for the price and −3.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 43,640 IDR versus a price of 25,200 IDR, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITMG?
Our model-based fair value for Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 43,640 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25,200 IDR.
What is the quality score of ITMG?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 43,640 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 35,563 IDR, optimistic scenario 52,688 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 43,640 IDR, about +73% upside versus a price of 25,200 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 35,563 IDR, optimistic scenario 52,688 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk pay a dividend?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITMG use?
Our models discount Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.16 %: that much free cash flow Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk it is 43,640 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 25,200 IDR. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ITMG trades below its calculated fair value: price 25,200 IDR, fair value 43,640 IDR, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25,200 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (43,640 IDR). For Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk the two are 18,440 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk worth?
The market values Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk at about 28.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 25,200 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 43,640 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITMG?
Our models span a range for Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk: cautious scenario 35,563 IDR, base 43,640 IDR, optimistic 52,688 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 25,200 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITMG?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 43,640 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ITMG?
The PEG ratio of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 0.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITMG from its 52-week high?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk trades at 25,200 IDR, about 13% below its 52-week high of 28,903 IDR and 24% above the low of 20,326 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 43,640 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 25,200 IDR, calculated fair value 43,640 IDR (+73%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITMG calculated?
We run Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 43,640 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk currently trades 73 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 25,200 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 43,640 IDR, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (35,563 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) come from?
Earnings per share at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The market capitalisation of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 28.5T IDR (≈ $2.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Earnings per share at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk are 2,882 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The dividend yield of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The net margin of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 10.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 34.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
The operating margin of Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Revenue at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG)?
Earnings per share at Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk are growing −14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) hold?
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk holds more cash than debt, $710M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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