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ITM Power Plc (ITMPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ITM Power Plc $0.32, price $1.35, upside -76.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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IP
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
ITM Power Plc
ITMPF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.3200 · Strongly overvalued (−76.3%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +51.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -108.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3280 – $7.10 · fair‑value band $0.2100 – $0.4000 · the $1.35 price screens above the $0.3200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ITM Power Plc designs and manufactures proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers in the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, Australia, and internationally.
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ITM Power Plc designs and manufactures proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers in the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, Australia, and internationally. Its product portfolio comprises TRIDENT, an PEM electrolysers stack technology; NEPTUNE, a 2MW plug and play electrolyser for small to mid-size projects; and POSEIDON, a 20 MW electrolysis process module for large-scale projects. ITM Power Plc was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sheffield, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
ITM Power Plc (ITMPF) currently trades at $1.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3200, 76.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.2100 (bear) to $0.4000 (bull), the price of $1.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ITM Power Plc reported revenue of £26.0M in FY2025 versus £4.3M in FY2021, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was −£45.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/S ratio 40.2 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −108% · Return on equity −13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.5% · Operating margin −96.7% · Revenue (TTM) £28.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −76%, ITMPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2100
Fair Value $0.3200
Bull $0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2200
$0.2900
$0.4300
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2200
$0.2900
$0.4300
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
70
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +31.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.8%
’14
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−694.7% (2020) → −209.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
ITMPF screens overvalued: fair value 76% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $950.49 | $142.61 | −85% |
| SIE SIE | €271.90 | €150.42 | −45% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $433.27 | $173.12 | −60% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $970.37 | $494.81 | −49% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.10 | $62.54 | −60% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $257.28 | $153.33 | −40% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $516.57 | $359.11 | −30% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $250.74 | $125.77 | −50% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $442.45 | $139.31 | −69% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 362.00 | kr 193.59 | −47% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ITM Power Plc (ITMPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3200 versus a price of $1.35, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ITMPF?
Our model-based fair value for ITM Power Plc is $0.3200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.35.
What is the quality score of ITMPF?
ITM Power Plc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ITM Power Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3200, about −76% upside versus a price of $1.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
ITM Power Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £28.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ITM Power Plc it is $0.3200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.35. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ITM Power Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ITMPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.35, fair value $0.3200, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITMPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3200). For ITM Power Plc the two are $1.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ITM Power Plc worth?
The market values ITM Power Plc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.35; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITMPF?
Our models span a range for ITM Power Plc: cautious scenario $0.2100, base $0.3200, optimistic $0.4000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ITM Power Plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −13.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITMPF from its 52-week high?
ITM Power Plc trades at $1.35, about 51% below its 52-week high of $2.77 and 70% above the low of $0.7950 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ITM Power Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ITM Power Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.35, calculated fair value $0.3200 (−76%), Quality Score 47/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITMPF calculated?
We run ITM Power Plc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ITM Power Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.35. Our model-based fair value is $0.3200, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ITM Power Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.2100 to $0.4000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ITM Power Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The market capitalisation of ITM Power Plc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ITM Power Plc is 40.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
Earnings per share at ITM Power Plc are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The net margin of ITM Power Plc is −108% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ITM Power Plc is −13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ITM Power Plc is −14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
The operating margin of ITM Power Plc is −96.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ITM Power Plc (ITMPF)?
Revenue at ITM Power Plc is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +66.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does ITM Power Plc (ITMPF) generate?
The free cash flow of ITM Power Plc is −£32.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does ITM Power Plc (ITMPF) hold?
ITM Power Plc holds more cash than debt, £195M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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