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Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Invicta Holdings Ltd $5.80, price $2.27, upside +156.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · Home South Africa · ISIN ZAE000173399

IH Invicta Holdings Ltd logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Invicta Holdings Ltd

IVCHF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $5.80 · Strongly undervalued (+156.1%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +4.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/13)
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$2.27 $1.14 Fair Value $5.80 Sep 2023 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

36‑month range $1.14 – $2.27 · fair‑value band $3.45 – $8.77 · the $2.27 price screens below the $5.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Invicta Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of engineering components and consumables in South Africa, the Rest of Africa, Europe, and Asia.

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Invicta Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the distribution of engineering components and consumables in South Africa, the Rest of Africa, Europe, and Asia. It operates in Replacement Parts for Industrial Equipment; Replacement Parts for Auto and Agri; Capital Equipment and Related Services; and Replacement Parts for Earthmoving Equipment. The company offers technical services, including on-site installation, maintenance work, breakdown repair, condition monitoring, failure analysis, design engineering, and manufacturing services; engineering consumables, such as bearings, seals and gaskets, power transmissions, light and heavy materials handling, fasteners, geared and electric drives, and motors; and fluid technology products and solutions comprising hydraulic, pneumatic, valves, pumps, filtration, hose, fittings, and lubrication. It also supplies tools and equipment, cutting, welding, lifting, personal protective equipment, locks, and machine tools; imported and local vibrator motors, tensioning, and suspension systems; and vibrating equipment and material handling solutions. In addition, the company manufactures and supplies heavy-duty belting components and imported conveyer belting to the industry. Further, it supplies automotive and agricultural after-market replacement parts and kits; forklifts, off-road dump trucks, and related spare parts; earthmoving and materials-handling equipment; after-market replacement spare parts, ground engaging tools, and undercarriage parts for earthmoving equipment; aftermarket heavy-duty diesel engine parts for industrial and agricultural machinery; and heavy machinery parts and diesel engine components used for excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders, motor graders, trucks, trailers, power generation sets, and marine engines. Additionally, it provides technical support and value-added assembly services. Invicta Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) currently trades at $2.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.80, implying the stock looks roughly 60.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.54 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $2.27 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.23, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.45 (bear) to $8.77 (bull), the price of $2.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Invicta Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 8.1B ZAR in FY2025 versus 6.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 769M ZAR in FY2025, compounding +20.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $208M · P/E ratio 4.6 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Net margin 9.5% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.5% · Operating margin 7.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 156%, IVCHF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.45 Fair Value $5.80 Bull $8.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $1.67 $2.30 $3.05 78
Growth DCF $1.68 $2.23 $2.86 77
Owner Earnings $5.60 $7.59 $9.99 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.67 $2.30 $3.05 78
Owner Earnings $5.60 $7.59 $9.99 74
5Y Revenue Exit $3.20 $5.36 $8.10 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.85 $6.55 $9.65 71
5Y P/E Exit $4.77 $8.23 $11.79 67
10Y Revenue Exit $2.37 $3.97 $6.08 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.83 $4.67 $7.07 65
10Y P/E Exit $3.33 $5.65 $8.43 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.63 $10.02 $13.16 62
Lynch FV $2.00 $2.86 $3.72 58
PEG = 1.0 $2.00 $2.86 $3.72 55
EPV $2.87 $3.23 $3.52 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.40 $11.20 $14.00 63
P/S Multiple $6.80 $9.07 $11.33 58
P/B Multiple $6.80 $9.07 $11.33 55
EV/EBIT $6.65 $8.90 $11.16 66
EV/EBITDA $6.39 $8.56 $10.74 67
EV/Revenue $4.71 $6.78 $8.85 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.86 $2.49 $3.72 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.68 $2.23 $2.86 77
Rev-Margin DCF $3.20 $5.34 $7.71 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.32 $3.78 $4.77 68
ROIC Compounder $2.87 $3.23 $3.52 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.68 $9.54 $12.40 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83

Profitability 55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside +54.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14.5% · Above median
Return on assets 5.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 58.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.65× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 21.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)30 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)58 · sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW $1,256 $623.81 −50%
Fastenal Company FAST $50.23 $41.28 −18%
Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG $222.74 $32.49 −85%
WESCO International, Inc WCC $367.44 $151.88 −59%
Toromont Industries Ltd TIH C$226.98 C$127.90 −44%
Watsco, Inc WSO $317.23 $250.18 −21%
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT $332.29 $205.13 −38%
Finning International Inc FTT C$106.19 C$74.26 −30%
Indutrade AB INDT kr 258.60 kr 284.46 +10%
Core & Main, Inc CNM $42.64 $50.21 +18%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Invicta Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IVCHF

Frequently asked questions

Is Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.80 versus a price of $2.27, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IVCHF?
Our model-based fair value for Invicta Holdings Ltd is $5.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.27.
What is the quality score of IVCHF?
Invicta Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.45, optimistic scenario $8.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Invicta Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.80, about +156% upside versus a price of $2.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.45, optimistic scenario $8.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Invicta Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.3B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Invicta Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IVCHF use?
Our models discount Invicta Holdings Ltd at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Invicta Holdings Ltd that is +16.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Invicta Holdings Ltd grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +16.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Invicta Holdings Ltd (+16.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.67 %: that much free cash flow Invicta Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Invicta Holdings Ltd it is $5.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.27. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Invicta Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, IVCHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.27, fair value $5.80, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVCHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.80). For Invicta Holdings Ltd the two are $3.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Invicta Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Invicta Holdings Ltd at about $208M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.27; our models calculate a fair value of $5.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVCHF?
Our models span a range for Invicta Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $3.45, base $5.80, optimistic $8.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IVCHF?
Invicta Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Invicta Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVCHF from its 52-week high?
Invicta Holdings Ltd trades at $2.27, at its 52-week high of $2.27 and 33% above the low of $1.70 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Invicta Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Invicta Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.27, calculated fair value $5.80 (+156%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVCHF calculated?
We run Invicta Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Invicta Holdings Ltd currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $2.27. Our model-based fair value is $5.80, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Invicta Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.45 to $8.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Invicta Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The market capitalisation of Invicta Holdings Ltd is $208M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 0.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Earnings per share at Invicta Holdings Ltd are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The net margin of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 9.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 7.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
The operating margin of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Revenue at Invicta Holdings Ltd is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF)?
Earnings per share at Invicta Holdings Ltd are growing +6.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Invicta Holdings Ltd (IVCHF) carry?
The net debt of Invicta Holdings Ltd is 358M ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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