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Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$442M

JM Jaguar Mining Inc JAG · TO
PriceC$6.71
Fair ValueC$6.27
Upside-6.6%
Quality36/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -6.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Ranks above peers (8/11)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: Low Range C$4.87 – C$7.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from C$6.48 to C$6.27 (−3.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +30.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$9.46 C$1.14 Fair Value C$6.27 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$1.14 – C$9.46 · fair‑value band C$4.87 – C$7.67 · the C$6.71 price screens above the C$6.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) currently trades at C$6.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$6.27, implying the stock looks roughly 6.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Jaguar Mining Inc generated revenue of C$152M at a net margin of -6.2%. Revenue grew 63.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$58.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$4.87 (bear case) to C$7.67 (bull case); at C$6.71, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -7%, JAG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder C$3.94 C$4.89 C$6.09 72
EPV C$3.65 C$4.04 C$4.37 59
EV/EBITDA C$5.13 C$6.58 C$8.03 54
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV C$3.65 C$4.04 C$4.37 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$4.97 C$6.37 C$7.76 53
EV/EBITDA C$5.13 C$6.58 C$8.03 54
EV/Revenue C$2.44 C$3.16 C$3.87 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.43 C$1.92 C$2.87 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$3.94 C$4.89 C$6.09 72

Widest divergence: Multiples (C$6.37) versus Asset-Based (C$1.92). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$152M
Revenue growth (YoY) +63.4%
Net margin -6.2%
Return on equity -3.9%
Free cash flow −C$4.8M FY2025
Operating margin 47.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) C$-0.1800
EPS growth (YoY) +450%
Net cash C$58.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 56
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil.

Full company description

Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil. The company's principal project includes the Turmalina Gold Mine Complex and Caeté Gold Mine Complex with mineral claims covering an area of approximately 46,619.08 hectares located in the Iron Quadrangle in the state of Minas Gerais. It also owns the Paciência Gold Mine complex. Jaguar Mining Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Jaguar Mining Inc reported revenue of C$135M in FY2025 versus C$151M in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −C$15.8M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$135M
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.3%
Avg. growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+24.2%
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 C$151M
FY22 C$143M
FY23 C$137M
FY24 C$159M
FY25 C$135M
Net income
FY21 C$24.1M
FY22 C$21.4M
FY23 C$15.9M
FY24 −C$1.3M
FY25 −C$15.8M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jaguar Mining Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAG

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −7% · Above median
Return on assets 11% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 47% · Above median
Revenue growth 63% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.30× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.08× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 25 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.36 ¥30.58 +8%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$6.27 versus a price of C$6.71, about −7% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JAG?
Our model-based fair value for Jaguar Mining Inc is C$6.27 (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$6.71.
What is the quality score of JAG?
Jaguar Mining Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Jaguar Mining Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$152M (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JAG?
The net profit margin of Jaguar Mining Inc is about -6.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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