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Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jaguar Mining Inc stock C$2.71, price C$5.57, that is 51.3% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials CA · ISIN CA47009M8896

JM Jaguar Mining Inc logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Jaguar Mining Inc

JAG · TO
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 51% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +43% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 7.5% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Moderate moat 46/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value C$2.71 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 30/100
Negative free cash flow
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$9.46 C$1.14 Fair Value C$2.71 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$1.14 – C$9.46 · fair‑value band C$2.39 – C$4.04 · the C$5.57 price screens above the C$2.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil.

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The company's principal project includes the Turmalina Gold Mine Complex and Caeté Gold Mine Complex with mineral claims covering an area of approximately 46,619.08 hectares located in the Iron Quadrangle in the state of Minas Gerais. It also owns the Paciência Gold Mine complex.

Jaguar Mining Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) currently trades at C$5.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.71, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$3.98 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the C$5.57 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$2.54, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$2.39 (bear) to C$4.04 (bull), the price of C$5.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Jaguar Mining Inc reported revenue of $135M in FY2025 versus $151M in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$15.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$484M (≈ $343M) Small · P/E ratio 30.9 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) C$0.1800 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 40.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −51%, JAG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$2.39 Fair Value C$2.71 Bull C$4.04
Price C$5.57 · Downside -51.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1544 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV C$2.39 C$2.54 C$2.65 74
ROIC Compounder C$2.39 C$2.54 C$2.65 72
EV/EBITDA C$4.49 C$5.67 C$6.85 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV C$2.39 C$2.54 C$2.65 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$3.22 C$3.98 C$4.73 66
EV/EBITDA C$4.49 C$5.67 C$6.85 67
EV/Revenue C$2.92 C$3.76 C$4.60 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$2.02 C$2.71 C$4.04 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$2.39 C$2.54 C$2.65 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 11
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 66
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 47
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 34
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 27
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 18
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2019) → 8.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

JAG screens overvalued: fair value 51% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 205 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.1% · Below median
Return on assets −4.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 7.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 40.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 43.3% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 30.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.40× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 2.04× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $191.57 $220.07 +15% vs JAG
Newmont Corporation NEM $120.91 $133.00 +10% vs JAG
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $92.99 $88.58 −5% vs JAG
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $265.81 $248.53 −7% vs JAG
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥26.20 ¥23.61 −10% vs JAG
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $254.95 $212.28 −17% vs JAG
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.24 $18.00 −19% vs JAG
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$25.85 A$16.87 −35% vs JAG
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $136.31 $87.64 −36% vs JAG
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.28 ¥15.62 −45% vs JAG

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Jaguar Mining Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jaguar Mining Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAG

Frequently asked questions

Is Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.71 versus a price of C$5.57, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAG?
Our model-based fair value for Jaguar Mining Inc is C$2.71 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$5.57.
What is the quality score of JAG?
Jaguar Mining Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.71 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$2.39, optimistic scenario C$4.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jaguar Mining Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.71, about 51% lower versus a price of C$5.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$2.39, optimistic scenario C$4.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Jaguar Mining Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $168M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jaguar Mining Inc it is C$2.71 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of C$5.57. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Jaguar Mining Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, JAG trades above its calculated fair value: price C$5.57, fair value C$2.71, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$5.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.71). For Jaguar Mining Inc the two are C$2.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jaguar Mining Inc worth?
The market values Jaguar Mining Inc at about C$484M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is C$5.57; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAG?
Our models span a range for Jaguar Mining Inc: cautious scenario C$2.39, base C$2.71, optimistic C$4.04 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price C$5.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JAG?
Jaguar Mining Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$2.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jaguar Mining Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAG from its 52-week high?
Jaguar Mining Inc trades at C$5.57, about 41% below its 52-week high of C$9.46 and 15% above the low of C$4.83 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jaguar Mining Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jaguar Mining Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price C$5.57, calculated fair value C$2.71 (−51%), Quality Score 30/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAG calculated?
We run Jaguar Mining Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$2.71 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jaguar Mining Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$5.57. Our model-based fair value is C$2.71, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jaguar Mining Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$4.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Jaguar Mining Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The market capitalisation of Jaguar Mining Inc is C$484M (≈ $343M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jaguar Mining Inc is 2.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Earnings per share at Jaguar Mining Inc are C$0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The net margin of Jaguar Mining Inc is 7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jaguar Mining Inc is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jaguar Mining Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The operating margin of Jaguar Mining Inc is 40.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Revenue at Jaguar Mining Inc is growing +43.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Earnings per share at Jaguar Mining Inc are growing +450% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) generate?
The free cash flow of Jaguar Mining Inc is −$4.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) hold?
Jaguar Mining Inc holds more cash than debt, $58.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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