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Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Jaguar Mining Inc C$2.53, price C$7.70, upside -67.1%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA47009M8896

JM Some data Sep 23, 2026

Jaguar Mining Inc

JAG · TO

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value C$2.53 · Strongly overvalued (−67%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (7/11)
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$9.46 C$1.14 Fair Value C$2.53 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$1.14 – C$9.46 · fair‑value band C$2.38 – C$2.64 · the C$7.70 price screens above the C$2.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil.

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Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil. The company's principal project includes the Turmalina Gold Mine Complex and Caeté Gold Mine Complex with mineral claims covering an area of approximately 46,619.08 hectares located in the Iron Quadrangle in the state of Minas Gerais. It also owns the Paciência Gold Mine complex. Jaguar Mining Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) currently trades at C$7.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.53, implying the stock looks roughly 204.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$2.91 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the C$7.70 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$1.92, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$2.38 (bear) to C$2.64 (bull), the price of C$7.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Jaguar Mining Inc reported revenue of $135M in FY2025 versus $151M in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$15.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$621M (≈ $439M) · P/S ratio 2.90 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.1800 · Net margin −11.7% · Return on equity −3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 47.4% · Revenue (TTM) $152M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −67%, JAG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$2.38 Fair Value C$2.53 Bull C$2.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV C$1.88 C$2.03 C$2.15 74
ROIC Compounder C$1.88 C$2.03 C$2.15 72
EV/EBITDA C$3.28 C$4.11 C$4.95 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV C$1.88 C$2.03 C$2.15 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$2.38 C$2.91 C$3.45 66
EV/EBITDA C$3.28 C$4.11 C$4.95 67
EV/Revenue C$2.17 C$2.76 C$3.35 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.43 C$1.92 C$2.87 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$1.88 C$2.03 C$2.15 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 56
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.6% (2019) → 8.2% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

JAG screens 204% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Below median
Fair Value upside −67% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 11% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 47% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 63% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.80× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.89× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥31.41 ¥43.81 +39%
Newmont Corporation NEM A$177.02 A$265.78 +50%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $195.57 $222.49 +14%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $42.49 $65.40 +54%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $145.45 $89.12 −39%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$146.60 HK$83.20 −43%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $27.62 $51.30 +86%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.78 $278.06 +10%

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C$2.53 −204%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jaguar Mining Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAG

Frequently asked questions

Is Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$2.53 versus a price of C$7.70, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAG?
Our model-based fair value for Jaguar Mining Inc is C$2.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$7.70.
What is the quality score of JAG?
Jaguar Mining Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$2.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$2.38, optimistic scenario C$2.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jaguar Mining Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$2.53, about −67% upside versus a price of C$7.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$2.38, optimistic scenario C$2.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Jaguar Mining Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $152M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jaguar Mining Inc it is C$2.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$7.70. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jaguar Mining Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JAG trades above its calculated fair value: price C$7.70, fair value C$2.53, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$7.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$2.53). For Jaguar Mining Inc the two are C$5.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jaguar Mining Inc worth?
The market values Jaguar Mining Inc at about C$621M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$7.70; our models calculate a fair value of C$2.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAG?
Our models span a range for Jaguar Mining Inc: cautious scenario C$2.38, base C$2.53, optimistic C$2.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$7.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jaguar Mining Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −3.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAG from its 52-week high?
Jaguar Mining Inc trades at C$7.70, about 19% below its 52-week high of C$9.46 and 59% above the low of C$4.83 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$2.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jaguar Mining Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jaguar Mining Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$7.70, calculated fair value C$2.53 (−67%), Quality Score 36/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAG calculated?
We run Jaguar Mining Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$2.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Jaguar Mining Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$7.70. Our model-based fair value is C$2.53, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jaguar Mining Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$2.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (C$2.38 to C$2.64), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Jaguar Mining Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The market capitalisation of Jaguar Mining Inc is C$621M (≈ $439M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jaguar Mining Inc is 2.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Earnings per share at Jaguar Mining Inc are C$−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The net margin of Jaguar Mining Inc is −11.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jaguar Mining Inc is −3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jaguar Mining Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
The operating margin of Jaguar Mining Inc is 47.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Revenue at Jaguar Mining Inc is growing +63.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG)?
Earnings per share at Jaguar Mining Inc are growing +450% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) generate?
The free cash flow of Jaguar Mining Inc is −$4.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) hold?
Jaguar Mining Inc holds more cash than debt, $58.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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