Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$442M
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from C$6.48 to C$6.27 (−3.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +30.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.14 – C$9.46 · fair‑value band C$4.87 – C$7.67 · the C$6.71 price screens above the C$6.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Jaguar Mining Inc (JAG) currently trades at C$6.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$6.27, implying the stock looks roughly 6.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jaguar Mining Inc generated revenue of C$152M at a net margin of -6.2%. Revenue grew 63.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$58.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$4.87 (bear case) to C$7.67 (bull case); at C$6.71, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -7%, JAG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$6.37) versus Asset-Based (C$1.92). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil.
Full company description
Jaguar Mining Inc., a junior gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold mineral properties in Brazil. The company's principal project includes the Turmalina Gold Mine Complex and Caeté Gold Mine Complex with mineral claims covering an area of approximately 46,619.08 hectares located in the Iron Quadrangle in the state of Minas Gerais. It also owns the Paciência Gold Mine complex. Jaguar Mining Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jaguar Mining Inc reported revenue of C$135M in FY2025 versus C$151M in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −C$15.8M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Gold · 259 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEMCL | $112.00 | $132.73 | +19% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥28.36 | ¥30.58 | +8% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | C$191.93 | C$154.33 | -20% |
| Barrick Mining Corporation B | $34.93 | $50.66 | +45% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | C$152.57 | C$52.47 | -66% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | C$284.75 | C$97.76 | -66% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $76.35 | $88.63 | +16% |
| Gold Fields Limited GFI | $33.33 | $59.06 | +77% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $22.57 | $34.62 | +53% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$20.48 | A$15.98 | -22% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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