Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT IDR 98, price IDR 162, upside -39.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 71.78 IDR – 218.00 IDR · fair‑value band 72.41 IDR – 120.68 IDR · the 162.00 IDR price screens above the 98.14 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk engages in the transportation business in Indonesia. The company offers land transportation services, including loose cargo and container transportation, and long box truck fleet services; import and export custom clearance services for cargoes; and domestic freight forwarding and door to door services to various destinations.
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PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk engages in the transportation business in Indonesia. The company offers land transportation services, including loose cargo and container transportation, and long box truck fleet services; import and export custom clearance services for cargoes; and domestic freight forwarding and door to door services to various destinations. It also provides warehousing services; and engages in real estate development activities. PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk was formerly known as PT Armada Beton. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Jakarta Timur, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA) currently trades at 162.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 98.14 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 65.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 143.40 IDR per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the 162.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 59.20 IDR, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 72.41 IDR (bear) to 120.68 IDR (bull), the price of 162.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT reported revenue of 73.9B IDR in FY2025 versus 72.4B IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B IDR in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 129B IDR (≈ $7.2M) · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) 8.17 IDR · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −39%, JAYA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 72.41 IDRFair Value 98.14 IDRBull 120.68 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (6.00 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
Compare Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth64% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.04× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.53× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA4.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAYA
Frequently asked questions
Is Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 98.14 IDR versus a price of 162.00 IDR, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAYA?
Our model-based fair value for Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 98.14 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 162.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of JAYA?
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 98.14 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 72.41 IDR, optimistic scenario 120.68 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 98.14 IDR, about −39% upside versus a price of 162.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 72.41 IDR, optimistic scenario 120.68 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 84.4B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT pay a dividend?
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT it is 98.14 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 162.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JAYA trades above its calculated fair value: price 162.00 IDR, fair value 98.14 IDR, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (162.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (98.14 IDR). For Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT the two are 63.86 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT worth?
The market values Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT at about 129B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 162.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 98.14 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAYA?
Our models span a range for Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT: cautious scenario 72.41 IDR, base 98.14 IDR, optimistic 120.68 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 162.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JAYA?
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 98.14 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAYA from its 52-week high?
Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT trades at 162.00 IDR, about 26% below its 52-week high of 218.00 IDR and 64% above the low of 99.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 98.14 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 162.00 IDR, calculated fair value 98.14 IDR (−39%), Quality Score 37/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAYA calculated?
We run Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 98.14 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 162.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 98.14 IDR, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (120.68 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The market capitalisation of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 129B IDR (≈ $7.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 1.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Earnings per share at Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT are 8.17 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The dividend yield of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 4.1% (payout 82.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The net margin of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
The operating margin of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Revenue at Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is growing +63.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA)?
Earnings per share at Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT are growing +918% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA) generate?
The free cash flow of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is −8.6B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT (JAYA) carry?
The net debt of Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk PT is 77.2B IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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