PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk (JAYA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · ID · Market cap 96.3B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 119.26 IDR to 96.55 IDR (−19.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (120.68 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 71.78 IDR – 218.00 IDR · fair‑value band 72.41 IDR – 120.68 IDR · the 134.00 IDR price screens above the 96.55 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk (JAYA) currently trades at 134.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 96.55 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk generated revenue of 84.4B IDR at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 63.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.2%. Net debt stands at 77.2B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 72.41 IDR (bear case) to 120.68 IDR (bull case); at 134.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -28%, JAYA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (108.33 IDR) versus DCF Models (30.21 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk engages in the transportation business in Indonesia. The company offers land transportation services, including loose cargo and container transportation, and long box truck fleet services; import and export custom clearance services for cargoes; and domestic freight forwarding and door to door services to various destinations.
Full company description
PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk engages in the transportation business in Indonesia. The company offers land transportation services, including loose cargo and container transportation, and long box truck fleet services; import and export custom clearance services for cargoes; and domestic freight forwarding and door to door services to various destinations. It also provides warehousing services; and engages in real estate development activities. PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk was formerly known as PT Armada Beton. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Jakarta Timur, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Armada Berjaya Trans Tbk reported revenue of 73.9B IDR in FY2025 versus 72.4B IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B IDR in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
JAYA screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 46 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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