RXO, Inc (RXO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.5B
RXO, Inc
RXO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $42.05 to $3.48 (−91.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −19.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.33 to $5.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range $10.48 – $31.90 · fair‑value band $1.33 – $5.63 · the $21.70 price screens above the $3.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
RXO, Inc (RXO) currently trades at $21.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.48, implying the stock looks roughly 84.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, RXO, Inc generated revenue of $5.7B at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue declined 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.8%. Net debt stands at $843M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.33 (bear case) to $5.63 (bull case); at $21.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -69% fair-value upside, at -84%, RXO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($6.35) versus Asset-Based ($6.26). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
RXO, Inc. engages in truck brokerage business in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Asia, and Europe. It offers truckload freight brokering services.
Full company description
RXO, Inc. engages in truck brokerage business in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Asia, and Europe. It offers truckload freight brokering services. The company also provides asset-light managed transportation and last mile services, as well as freight forwarding services, including facilitation of ocean and air transportation, customs brokerage, and additional domestic services including middle mile. RXO, Inc. was incorporated in 2022 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
RXO, Inc reported revenue of $5.7B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$100M in FY2025.
RXO screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- RXO anticipates $35M-$45M Q3 adjusted EBITDA as brokerage momentum offsets last mile headwinds
- RXO Inc (RXO) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Profitable Market Share Gains and Record Spot ...
- RXO, post-Montgomery, sees benefit in its insurance, vetting
- RXO (RXO) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$23.47 | C$19.35 | -18% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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