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John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc $55.91, price $67.69, upside -17.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN US8004221078

JB John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc

JBSS · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $55.91 · Overvalued (−17%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.33% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Weak on valuation: 10 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$116.53 $56.23 Fair Value $55.91 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $56.23 – $116.53 · fair‑value band $34.18 – $98.42 · the $67.69 price screens above the $55.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States.

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John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings; and bar product line, including chewy granola, fruit and grain, sweet and salty, dipped chewy granola, crunchy, energy, fiber, and nut bars. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; salad toppings, dried fruit, and chocolate and yogurt coated products; recipe ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, snack mixes, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack and baked cheese snack products; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, Southern Style Nuts, and Just the Cheese brands as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.

Stock analysis

John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) currently trades at $67.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.91, implying the stock looks roughly 21.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $92.74 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the $67.69 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.61, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $34.18 (bear) to $98.42 (bull), the price of $67.69 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $858M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was $58.9M in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $929M · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $5.29 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −17%, JBSS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $34.18 Fair Value $55.91 Bull $98.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.39 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $31.61 $44.27 $60.41 76
EPV $43.69 $49.81 $54.91 72
ROIC Compounder $45.29 $54.35 $64.03 71
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $31.61 $44.27 $60.41 76
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $34.18 $90.63 $118.45 62
PEG = 1.0 $17.49 $24.98 $32.48 55
EPV $43.69 $49.81 $54.91 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $16.17 $29.02 $40.12 65
DDM Multi-Stage $16.17 $23.58 $30.45 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $79.17 $105.56 $131.95 61
P/S Multiple $64.09 $85.46 $106.82 56
P/B Multiple $64.09 $85.46 $106.82 53
EV/EBIT $90.93 $121.64 $152.35 65
EV/EBITDA $95.43 $127.63 $159.84 66
EV/Revenue $64.56 $92.74 $120.92 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $15.38 $20.61 $30.77 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $29.92 $37.48 $80.80 70
ROIC Compounder $45.29 $54.35 $64.03 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $62.11 $88.73 $115.35 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 63
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 41/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

JBSS screens 21% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.58× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.80× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.52× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)10 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)73 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)27 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 77.09 CHF 59.49 −23%
Danone S.A BN €60.90 €50.81 −17%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $24.00 $29.20 +22%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥34.29 ¥37.72 +10%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,387 ₹724.74 −48%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥26.77 ¥41.84 +56%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.12 ¥9.98 −60%
General Mills, Inc GIS $35.45 $34.66 −2%
Uni-President Enterprises Corp 1216 74.50 TWD 68.72 TWD −8%
McCormick & Company MKC $49.42 $51.01 +3%

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John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc · Fair Value
$55.91 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JBSS

Frequently asked questions

Is John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $55.91 versus a price of $67.69, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JBSS?
Our model-based fair value for John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is $55.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.69.
What is the quality score of JBSS?
John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $55.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $34.18, optimistic scenario $98.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $55.91, about −17% upside versus a price of $67.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $34.18, optimistic scenario $98.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc pay a dividend?
John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc it is $55.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $67.69. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JBSS trades above its calculated fair value: price $67.69, fair value $55.91, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JBSS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($55.91). For John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc the two are $11.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc worth?
The market values John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc at about $929M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $67.69; our models calculate a fair value of $55.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JBSS?
Our models span a range for John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc: cautious scenario $34.18, base $55.91, optimistic $98.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $67.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JBSS?
John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $55.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
What is the PEG ratio of JBSS?
The PEG ratio of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Balance-sheet figures for John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JBSS from its 52-week high?
John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc trades at $67.69, about 25% below its 52-week high of $90.60 and 18% above the low of $57.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $55.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $67.69, calculated fair value $55.91 (−17%), Quality Score 54/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JBSS calculated?
We run John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $55.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $67.69. Our model-based fair value is $55.91, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($34.18 to $98.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) come from?
Earnings per share at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The market capitalisation of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is $929M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Earnings per share at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc are $5.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The dividend yield of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 1.3% (payout 17.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The net margin of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 18.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
The operating margin of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Revenue at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is growing +8.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)?
Earnings per share at John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc are growing −16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) generate?
The free cash flow of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is −$20.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS) carry?
The net debt of John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc is $102M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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