JD.com Inc (JD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of JD.com Inc stock $40.72, price $25.45, upside +60.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?Yes
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?No
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.59 – $80.45 · fair‑value band $26.88 – $70.53 · the $25.45 price screens below the $40.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses.
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The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products.
It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment.
In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services.
Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services.
Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services.
The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
JD.com Inc (JD) currently trades at $25.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.72, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $68.37 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the $25.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.62, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $26.88 (bear) to $70.53 (bull), the price of $25.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
JD.com Inc Adr reported revenue of 1.3T CNY in FY2025 versus 952B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 19.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $35.8B Large · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $1.43 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, JD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.88Fair Value $40.72Bull$70.53
Price $25.45 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3136 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 0%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.72 versus a price of $25.45, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JD?
Our model-based fair value for JD.com Inc Adr is $40.72 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.45.
What is the quality score of JD?
JD.com Inc Adr has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JD.com Inc (JD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.72 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.88, optimistic scenario $70.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JD.com Inc Adr stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.72, about +60% upside versus a price of $25.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $26.88, optimistic scenario $70.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JD.com Inc (JD)?
JD.com Inc Adr reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3T CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does JD.com Inc Adr pay a dividend?
JD.com Inc Adr currently shows a dividend yield of 4.13% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into JD.com Inc (JD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD.com Inc Adr would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JD use?
Our models discount JD.com Inc Adr at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JD.com Inc Adr that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JD.com Inc (JD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at JD.com Inc Adr grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JD.com Inc (JD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JD.com Inc Adr (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow JD.com Inc Adr produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JD.com Inc (JD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD.com Inc Adr it is $40.72 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $25.45. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JD.com Inc Adr stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, JD trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.45, fair value $40.72, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.72). For JD.com Inc Adr the two are $15.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JD.com Inc Adr worth?
The market values JD.com Inc Adr at about $35.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $25.45; our models calculate a fair value of $40.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JD?
Our models span a range for JD.com Inc Adr: cautious scenario $26.88, base $40.72, optimistic $70.53 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $25.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JD?
JD.com Inc Adr trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.72 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 18.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
What is the PEG ratio of JD?
The PEG ratio of JD.com Inc Adr is 0.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of JD.com Inc (JD)?
Balance-sheet figures for JD.com Inc Adr (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JD from its 52-week high?
JD.com Inc Adr trades at $25.45, about 25% below its 52-week high of $33.77 and 4% above the low of $24.54 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JD.com Inc Adr?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, MercadoLibre, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JD.com Inc Adr stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $25.45, calculated fair value $40.72 (+60%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JD calculated?
We run JD.com Inc Adr through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. JD.com Inc Adr currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $25.45. Our model-based fair value is $40.72, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JD.com Inc Adr right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($26.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($26.88 to $70.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of JD.com Inc Adr
How large is the market capitalisation of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The market capitalisation of JD.com Inc Adr is $35.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JD.com Inc Adr is 0.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JD.com Inc (JD)?
Earnings per share at JD.com Inc Adr are $1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The dividend yield of JD.com Inc Adr is 4.1% (payout 73.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The net margin of JD.com Inc Adr is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JD.com Inc Adr is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JD.com Inc (JD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JD.com Inc Adr is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JD.com Inc (JD)?
The operating margin of JD.com Inc Adr is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JD.com Inc (JD)?
Revenue at JD.com Inc Adr is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JD.com Inc (JD)?
Earnings per share at JD.com Inc Adr are growing +21.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does JD.com Inc (JD) hold?
JD.com Inc Adr holds more cash than debt, 42.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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