Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Jungfraubahn Holding AG CHF 224, price CHF 227, upside -1.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 97.61 – CHF 312.56 · fair‑value band CHF 144.55 – CHF 280.04 · the CHF 226.50 price screens above the CHF 224.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Jungfraubahn Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates cogwheel railway and winter sports related facilities in Jungfrau region, and Switzerland. It operates through Jungfraujoch " Top of Europe, Winter Sports, Experience Mountains, and Secondary Business segments.
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Jungfraubahn Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates cogwheel railway and winter sports related facilities in Jungfrau region, and Switzerland. It operates through Jungfraujoch " Top of Europe, Winter Sports, Experience Mountains, and Secondary Business segments. The company's destinations include Jungfraujoch, Grindelwald-First, Schynige Platte, Harder Kulm, Winteregg Mürren, and Kleine Scheidegg. In addition, it offers tourist railways, cableways, skiing, flyer, glider, mountain cart, Trotti bike scooter, hiking, sledging, and shopping; food and beverages; and restaurant services, as well as operates a hydroelectric power station. Jungfraubahn Holding AG was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Interlaken, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) currently trades at CHF 226.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 224.03, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 253.18 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the CHF 226.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 83.16, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 144.55 (bear) to CHF 280.04 (bull), the price of CHF 226.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Jungfraubahn Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 272M in FY2025 versus CHF 97.0M in FY2021, a compound +29.4%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 78.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 1.5B · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 4.78 · EPS (TTM) CHF 13.60 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 28.7% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −1%, JFN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 144.55Fair Value CHF 224.03Bull CHF 280.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 3.80 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 10.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−42% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.8% a year for the price.
Compare Jungfraubahn Holding AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−1.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.4% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)33.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jungfraubahn Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JFN
Frequently asked questions
Is Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 224.03 versus a price of CHF 226.50, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JFN?
Our model-based fair value for Jungfraubahn Holding AG is CHF 224.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 226.50.
What is the quality score of JFN?
Jungfraubahn Holding AG has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 224.03 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 144.55, optimistic scenario CHF 280.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jungfraubahn Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 224.03, about −1% upside versus a price of CHF 226.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario CHF 144.55, optimistic scenario CHF 280.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Jungfraubahn Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 306M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Jungfraubahn Holding AG pay a dividend?
Jungfraubahn Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jungfraubahn Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JFN use?
Our models discount Jungfraubahn Holding AG at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jungfraubahn Holding AG that is +6.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jungfraubahn Holding AG grew +23.5 % a year. The price currently implies +6.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jungfraubahn Holding AG (+6.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.76 %: that much free cash flow Jungfraubahn Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jungfraubahn Holding AG it is CHF 224.03 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of CHF 226.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jungfraubahn Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, JFN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 226.50, fair value CHF 224.03, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JFN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 226.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 224.03). For Jungfraubahn Holding AG the two are CHF 2.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jungfraubahn Holding AG worth?
The market values Jungfraubahn Holding AG at about CHF 1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is CHF 226.50; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 224.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JFN?
Our models span a range for Jungfraubahn Holding AG: cautious scenario CHF 144.55, base CHF 224.03, optimistic CHF 280.04 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price CHF 226.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JFN?
Jungfraubahn Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 224.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jungfraubahn Holding AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JFN from its 52-week high?
Jungfraubahn Holding AG trades at CHF 226.50, about 28% below its 52-week high of CHF 312.56 and 6% above the low of CHF 213.37 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 224.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jungfraubahn Holding AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jungfraubahn Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price CHF 226.50, calculated fair value CHF 224.03 (−1%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JFN calculated?
We run Jungfraubahn Holding AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 224.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Jungfraubahn Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was CHF 226.50. Our model-based fair value is CHF 224.03, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jungfraubahn Holding AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (CHF 144.55 to CHF 280.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) come from?
Earnings per share at Jungfraubahn Holding AG grew +10.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Jungfraubahn Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The market capitalisation of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is CHF 1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 4.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Earnings per share at Jungfraubahn Holding AG are CHF 13.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The dividend yield of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 3.8% (payout 62.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The net margin of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 28.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
The operating margin of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is 33.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Revenue at Jungfraubahn Holding AG is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN)?
Earnings per share at Jungfraubahn Holding AG are growing −2.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jungfraubahn Holding AG (JFN) carry?
The net debt of Jungfraubahn Holding AG is CHF 26.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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