Kao Corp (KAOOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kao Corp stock $5.25, price $7.98, upside -34.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.60 – $8.01 · fair‑value band $3.78 – $6.56 · the $7.98 price screens above the $5.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Kao Corporation develops and sells hygiene living care, health beauty care, life care, cosmetics, and chemical products in Japan.
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It offers fabric, kitchen, home, and sanitary care products; facial, body, hair, and oral care, hair styling and color, salon, in-bathroom health care, and warming products; and self-selection cosmetics, as well as provides cosmetics counselling services.
It also provides oleo chemicals, such as oleochemicals, fat and oil derivatives, surfactants, and fragrances; water-reducing admixtures for concrete, casting sand binders, plastics additives, and process chemicals for various industries; and toners/toner binders, inkjet ink colorants, ink, fine polishing agents and cleaners for hard disk, and materials and process chemicals for semiconductor.
The company was formerly known as Kao Soap Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Kao Corporation in 1982. Kao Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kao Corp (KAOOY) currently trades at $7.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.25, 34.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $6.21 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $7.98 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.81, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.78 (bear) to $6.56 (bull), the price of $7.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kao Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥1.8T in FY2025 versus ¥1.4T in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥126B in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.7B Large · P/E ratio 33.3 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.2400 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −34%, KAOOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.78Fair Value $5.25Bull$6.56
Price $7.98 · Upside -34.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1946 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$4.47$6.27$9.2980
Growth DCF$4.64$6.39$9.1979
Owner Earnings$3.86$5.37$7.9376
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$4.47$6.27$9.2980
Owner Earnings$3.86$5.37$7.9376
5Y Revenue Exit$4.11$5.84$8.0873
5Y EBITDA Exit$5.28$7.88$10.9275
5Y P/E Exit$4.53$6.58$8.7171
10Y Revenue Exit$4.09$5.69$7.6067
10Y EBITDA Exit$4.96$7.11$9.6769
10Y P/E Exit$4.47$6.21$8.0665
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.01$3.97$4.9766
EPV$3.44$3.98$4.4774
Multiples
P/E Multiple$4.66$6.21$7.7663
P/S Multiple$3.77$5.03$6.2858
P/B Multiple$7.30$9.74$12.1755
EV/EBIT$5.31$7.01$8.7266
EV/EBITDA$6.16$8.15$10.1567
EV/Revenue$3.84$5.41$6.9754
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.1500$0.2200$0.280054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$4.64$6.39$9.1979
Rev-Margin DCF$4.11$5.90$7.8773
Economic Profit
Residual Income$2.38$2.81$3.7076
ROIC Compounder$3.52$4.24$5.0372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$3.36$4.80$6.2567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.8% vs 3.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Stable margins backed by efficiency measures form the main strength, while limited signals of organic product momentum remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Continued dependence on one-off gains and cost reductions without stronger organic innovation risks limiting sustained margin and ROIC progress.
Kao delivered record first-half operating income this year, but a sizable chunk traced to a land sale plus broad cost cuts and fewer SKUs rather than fresh product momentum. The company keeps R&D spending steady around four percent of sales while pushing high-value-added items and tighter operations to lift margins and ROIC. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will efficiency gains alone close the gap to peers, or does the business need visibly stronger organic innovation to sustain the improvement?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets6.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.94× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow23.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.6× · Pricier than median
PEG2.96× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)47· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)49· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.25 versus a price of $7.98, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KAOOY?
Our model-based fair value for Kao Corp ADR is $5.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.98.
What is the quality score of KAOOY?
Kao Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.78, optimistic scenario $6.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kao Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.25, about −34% upside versus a price of $7.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.78, optimistic scenario $6.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Kao Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.8T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Kao Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Kao Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kao Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +6.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAOOY use?
Our models discount Kao Corp ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kao Corp ADR that is +6.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kao Corp (KAOOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kao Corp ADR grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +6.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kao Corp (KAOOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kao Corp ADR (+6.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.27 %: that much free cash flow Kao Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kao Corp ADR it is $5.25 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $7.98. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kao Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, KAOOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.98, fair value $5.25, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAOOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.25). For Kao Corp ADR the two are $2.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kao Corp ADR worth?
The market values Kao Corp ADR at about $21.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $7.98; our models calculate a fair value of $5.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAOOY?
Our models span a range for Kao Corp ADR: cautious scenario $3.78, base $5.25, optimistic $6.56 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $7.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KAOOY?
Kao Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 3.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
What is the PEG ratio of KAOOY?
The PEG ratio of Kao Corp ADR is 2.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kao Corp ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAOOY from its 52-week high?
Kao Corp ADR trades at $7.98, at its 52-week high of $7.98 and 43% above the low of $5.59 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kao Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kao Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $7.98, calculated fair value $5.25 (−34%), Quality Score 58/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAOOY calculated?
We run Kao Corp ADR through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kao Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $7.98. Our model-based fair value is $5.25, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kao Corp ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Kao Corp (KAOOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Kao Corp ADR grew −0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin −3.2 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kao Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The market capitalisation of Kao Corp ADR is $21.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kao Corp ADR is 2.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Earnings per share at Kao Corp ADR are $0.2400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The dividend yield of Kao Corp ADR is 2.0% (payout 67.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The net margin of Kao Corp ADR is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kao Corp ADR is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kao Corp ADR is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
The operating margin of Kao Corp ADR is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Revenue at Kao Corp ADR is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kao Corp (KAOOY)?
Earnings per share at Kao Corp ADR are growing +32.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kao Corp (KAOOY) hold?
Kao Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥80.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Oct 22, 2026