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Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kelt Exploration Ltd $2.90, price $7.17, upside -59.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Kelt Exploration Ltd
KELTF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.90 · Strongly overvalued (−59.6%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +17.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.19 – $8.01 · fair‑value band $2.03 – $3.77 · the $7.17 price screens above the $2.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources natural gas primarily in Northwestern Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia. Kelt Exploration Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF) currently trades at $7.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.90, 59.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.87 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $7.17 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.3100, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.03 (bear) to $3.77 (bull), the price of $7.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kelt Exploration Ltd reported revenue of C$467M in FY2025 versus C$317M in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$63.0M in FY2025, compounding −13.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 44.8 · P/S ratio 6.05 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 13.5% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −60%, KELTF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.03
Fair Value $2.90
Bull $3.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1210 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$0.2000
$0.3100
$0.4000
72
Residual Income
$2.89
$2.88
$3.03
71
ROIC Compounder
$0.2000
$0.3100
$0.4000
71
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.49
$5.68
$7.69
64
Lynch FV
$1.38
$1.97
$2.57
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.38
$1.97
$2.57
57
EPV
$0.2000
$0.3100
$0.4000
72
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.30
$3.06
$3.83
63
P/S Multiple
$1.46
$1.94
$2.43
58
P/B Multiple
$2.79
$3.72
$4.65
55
EV/EBIT
$0.6900
$1.13
$1.57
64
EV/EBITDA
$3.03
$4.25
$5.47
67
EV/Revenue
$0.7400
$1.32
$1.90
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.98
$2.65
$3.95
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.89
$2.88
$3.03
71
ROIC Compounder
$0.2000
$0.3100
$0.4000
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.01
$2.87
$3.73
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Profitability
30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
70
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
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’17
’18
’19
’20
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.3% vs 13.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−30% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.90 versus a price of $7.17, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KELTF?
Our model-based fair value for Kelt Exploration Ltd is $2.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.17.
What is the quality score of KELTF?
Kelt Exploration Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.03, optimistic scenario $3.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kelt Exploration Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.90, about −60% upside versus a price of $7.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.03, optimistic scenario $3.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Kelt Exploration Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$493M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kelt Exploration Ltd it is $2.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.17. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kelt Exploration Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KELTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.17, fair value $2.90, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KELTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.90). For Kelt Exploration Ltd the two are $4.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kelt Exploration Ltd worth?
The market values Kelt Exploration Ltd at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.17; our models calculate a fair value of $2.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KELTF?
Our models span a range for Kelt Exploration Ltd: cautious scenario $2.03, base $2.90, optimistic $3.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KELTF?
Kelt Exploration Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kelt Exploration Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KELTF from its 52-week high?
Kelt Exploration Ltd trades at $7.17, about 10% below its 52-week high of $8.01 and 65% above the low of $4.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kelt Exploration Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kelt Exploration Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.17, calculated fair value $2.90 (−60%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KELTF calculated?
We run Kelt Exploration Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kelt Exploration Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.17. Our model-based fair value is $2.90, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kelt Exploration Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.03 to $3.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kelt Exploration Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The market capitalisation of Kelt Exploration Ltd is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kelt Exploration Ltd is 6.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Earnings per share at Kelt Exploration Ltd are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The net margin of Kelt Exploration Ltd is 13.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kelt Exploration Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kelt Exploration Ltd is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
The operating margin of Kelt Exploration Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Revenue at Kelt Exploration Ltd is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF)?
Earnings per share at Kelt Exploration Ltd are growing −96.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF) generate?
The free cash flow of Kelt Exploration Ltd is −C$49.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kelt Exploration Ltd (KELTF) carry?
The net debt of Kelt Exploration Ltd is C$181M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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