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KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company (KGI) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · TH · Market cap 9.4B THB

KS KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company KGI · BK
Price5.10 THB
Fair Value5.71 THB
Upside+12.0%
Quality70/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 25.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.57% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/14)
Wide moat 72/100
Evidence: High Range 4.28 THB – 7.13 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +11.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
  • Our model range runs from 4.28 THB (bear) to 7.13 THB (bull), base 5.71 THB. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 70/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

5.49 THB 2.68 THB Fair Value 5.71 THB Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 2.68 THB – 5.49 THB · fair‑value band 4.28 THB – 7.13 THB · the 5.10 THB price screens below the 5.71 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company (KGI) currently trades at 5.10 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.71 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 12.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company generated revenue of 3.8B THB at a net margin of 25.8%. Revenue grew 29.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at 5.9B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.28 THB (bear case) to 7.13 THB (bull case); at 5.10 THB, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 12%, KGI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 10.15 THB 19.80 THB 34.30 THB 80
Residual Income 3.62 THB 4.02 THB 5.86 THB 76
Gordon GGM 2.72 THB 5.42 THB 8.21 THB 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 6.85 THB 13.54 THB 25.82 THB 31
5Y P/E Exit 5.99 THB 10.08 THB 14.87 THB 38
10Y P/E Exit 7.38 THB 11.79 THB 18.25 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 2.96 THB 17.00 THB 23.65 THB 54
Lynch FV 4.79 THB 6.85 THB 8.90 THB 50
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2.72 THB 5.42 THB 8.21 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 2.72 THB 4.69 THB 5.73 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 4.24 THB 5.65 THB 7.07 THB 63
P/B Multiple 4.28 THB 5.71 THB 7.13 THB 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.04 THB 2.73 THB 4.08 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 10.15 THB 19.80 THB 34.30 THB 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income 3.62 THB 4.02 THB 5.86 THB 76

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (19.80 THB) versus Asset-Based (2.73 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.8B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) +29.5%
Net margin 25.8%
Return on equity 12.0%
Free cash flow 1.6B THB FY2025
P/E ratio 8.7
More key figures
Operating margin 35.8%
EPS (TTM) 0.4900 THB
Dividend yield 7.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +60.0%
Net debt 5.9B THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 97
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the securities and derivatives business in Thailand.

Full company description

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the securities and derivatives business in Thailand. It provides securities brokerage, securities dealing, investment advisory, securities underwriting, securities borrowing and lending, securities registrar, derivatives brokerage, and financial advisory services, as well as over-the-counter derivatives; and sells mutual fund units. The company also offers equity and derivatives trading, derivative warrants, fixed income, exchange traded funds, structured notes, and depositary receipts. In addition, it provides investment banking services, including fund raising, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, debenture, financial instruments, and corporate advisory services, as well as non-life and life insurance broker, investment, and wealth management services. The company was formerly known as KGI Securities One Public Company Limited and changed its name to KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited in May 2001. KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company reported revenue of 2.2B THB in FY2025 versus 5.3B THB in FY2021, a compound −19.5%/yr. Reported net income was 866M THB in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.2B THB
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Revenue −19.5%/yr
FY21 5.3B THB
FY22 4.1B THB
FY23 3.5B THB
FY24 3.4B THB
FY25 2.2B THB
Net income −17.4%/yr
FY21 1.9B THB
FY22 1.0B THB
FY23 868M THB
FY24 865M THB
FY25 866M THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.1 pp

of which total revenue +1.1 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −1.2 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGI

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 424 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +12% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Above median
Revenue growth 30% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.16× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.46× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 49 · sector 9
FUTURE 100 · sector 94
PAST 48 · sector 31
HEALTH 97 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 36

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

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Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 38,750 KRW 31,645 KRW -18%
Meritz Financial Group 138040 117,000 KRW 87,706 KRW -25%
Korea Investment Holdings 071050 239,000 KRW 318,825 KRW +33%
NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 31,000 KRW 37,133 KRW +20%
Samsung Securities Co 016360 107,700 KRW 126,487 KRW +17%
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS ₹967.00 ₹299.65 -69%
Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 322,000 KRW 358,091 KRW +11%
SSI Securities Corporation SSI 24,250 VND 28,021 VND +16%
Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA 313.75 ARS 120.22 ARS -62%

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Frequently asked questions

Is KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company (KGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.71 THB versus a price of 5.10 THB, about +12% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KGI?
Our model-based fair value for KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company is 5.71 THB (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 5.10 THB.
What is the quality score of KGI?
KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company (KGI)?
KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KGI?
The net profit margin of KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company is about 25.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company pay a dividend?
KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.21% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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