Kogeneracja SA (KGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · PL · Market cap 1.1B PLN (≈ $292M) · ISIN PLKGNRC00015
What is Kogeneracja SA really worth?
A solid business, trading 78% below our fair value of 325.11 PLN.
As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Kogeneracja SA is 325.11 PLN per share against a price of 70.60 PLN, so the fair value sits 361% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (238.63 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.90 PLN – 83.60 PLN · fair‑value band 238.63 PLN – 411.59 PLN · the 70.60 PLN price screens below the 325.11 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Kogeneracja SA (KGN) currently trades at 70.60 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 325.11 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 78.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 388.96 PLN per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the 70.60 PLN price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 116.81 PLN, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kogeneracja SA generated revenue of 2.9B PLN at a net margin of 12.6%. Revenue grew 21.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at 310M PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 238.63 PLN (bear case) to 411.59 PLN (bull case); at 70.60 PLN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 361%, KGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 16.61 PLN per share, which is 7.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (388.96 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (4.09 PLN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. engages in the production of electricity and heat in Poland. It is also involved in the wholesale and retail sale of electricity, heat, and power industry products and services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Wroclaw, Poland. Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A.
Full company description
Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. engages in the production of electricity and heat in Poland. It is also involved in the wholesale and retail sale of electricity, heat, and power industry products and services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Wroclaw, Poland. Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. operates as a subsidiary of PGE Energia Ciepla S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kogeneracja SA reported revenue of 2.7B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was 277M PLN in FY2025, compounding +49.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +11.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $83.47 | $32.94 | −61% |
| The Southern Company SO | $88.25 | $58.81 | −33% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $120.25 | $74.89 | −38% |
| National Grid plc NGG | $80.68 | $63.94 | −21% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $122.96 | $77.23 | −37% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $66.01 | $46.34 | −30% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $105.75 | $52.92 | −50% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $76.34 | $44.61 | −42% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $43.64 | $37.60 | −14% |
| Endesa, S.A ELE | €42.30 | €25.72 | −39% |
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