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Kier Group (KIERF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kier Group $4.68, price $4.09, upside +14.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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KG
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Kier Group
KIERF · USSpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.
✓Fair value $4.68 · Undervalued (+14.6%)
!Quality 50/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 29/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8280 – $4.55 · fair‑value band $3.33 – $6.04 · the $4.09 price screens below the $4.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate.
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Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate. It constructs power stations, roads, bridges, railways, and tunnels; and buildings for public and private sectors, including schools, hospitals, defence estate optimisation, commercial, residential and heritage buildings for local authorities, the Ministry of Justice, other government departments, and prisons. It also provides maintenance services for the UK road, rail, and utilities infrastructure, as well as reactive repairs; water and network services; mechanical and electrical engineering and fabric maintenance services; and cleaning, grounds' maintenance, security, and pest control services. In addition, the company invests in and develops property schemes and sites. Kier Group plc was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Salford, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Kier Group (KIERF) currently trades at $4.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.68, implying the stock looks roughly 12.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.73 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.09 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.7600, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.33 (bear) to $6.04 (bull), the price of $4.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kier Group reported revenue of £4.1B in FY2025 versus £3.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was £56.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 22.7 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.1800 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 15%, KIERF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.33
Fair Value $4.68
Bull $6.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1020 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$11.07
$13.16
$15.74
82
Growth DCF
$11.21
$13.15
$15.44
80
Owner Earnings
$8.75
$10.11
$11.79
78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$11.07
$13.16
$15.74
82
Owner Earnings
$8.75
$10.11
$11.79
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$8.91
$10.37
$12.11
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$10.25
$12.72
$15.42
77
5Y P/E Exit
$8.57
$9.78
$10.95
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$9.71
$11.08
$12.64
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$10.55
$12.52
$14.79
70
10Y P/E Exit
$9.59
$10.73
$11.88
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.17
$2.41
$3.04
66
EPV
$6.64
$6.95
$7.20
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.5700
$0.7900
$0.9900
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.5700
$0.7600
$0.9600
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.70
$3.60
$4.50
63
P/S Multiple
$2.19
$2.92
$3.65
58
P/B Multiple
$2.19
$2.92
$3.65
55
EV/EBIT
$8.81
$10.28
$11.75
66
EV/EBITDA
$10.46
$12.47
$14.49
67
EV/Revenue
$7.55
$8.90
$10.25
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7900
$1.05
$1.57
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$11.21
$13.15
$15.44
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$8.91
$10.50
$12.24
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.35
$1.48
$1.74
76
ROIC Compounder
$6.64
$6.95
$7.20
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.97
$2.82
$3.67
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
62
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
’15
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’21
’22
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’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 16.8%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.1% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,658 | $1,116 | −33% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | $55.77 | $21.74 | −61% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €407.40 | €203.86 | −50% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $769.03 | $525.05 | −32% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €95.00 | €62.20 | −35% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €43.14 | €66.31 | +54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Kier Group (KIERF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.68 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $4.09, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KIERF?
Our model-based fair value for Kier Group is $4.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $4.09.
What is the quality score of KIERF?
Kier Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kier Group (KIERF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.33, optimistic scenario $6.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kier Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.68, about +15% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $4.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.33, optimistic scenario $6.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kier Group (KIERF)?
Kier Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kier Group pay a dividend?
Kier Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kier Group (KIERF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kier Group would have to grow free cash flow by -13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KIERF use?
Our models discount Kier Group at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kier Group that is -13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kier Group (KIERF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kier Group grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies -13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kier Group (KIERF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kier Group (-13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.57 %: that much free cash flow Kier Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kier Group (KIERF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kier Group it is $4.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.09. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kier Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KIERF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.09, fair value $4.68, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KIERF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.68). For Kier Group the two are $0.5950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kier Group worth?
The market values Kier Group at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.09; our models calculate a fair value of $4.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KIERF?
Our models span a range for Kier Group: cautious scenario $3.33, base $4.68, optimistic $6.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KIERF from its 52-week high?
Kier Group trades at $4.09, about 10% below its 52-week high of $4.55 and 54% above the low of $2.65 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kier Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kier Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.09, calculated fair value $4.68 (+15%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KIERF calculated?
We run Kier Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kier Group currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $4.09. Our model-based fair value is $4.68, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kier Group right now?
A fairly wide model range ($3.33 to $6.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kier Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The market capitalisation of Kier Group is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Kier Group is 22.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kier Group is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kier Group (KIERF)?
Earnings per share at Kier Group are $0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The dividend yield of Kier Group is 1.9% (payout 43.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The net margin of Kier Group is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kier Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kier Group (KIERF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kier Group is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kier Group (KIERF)?
The operating margin of Kier Group is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kier Group (KIERF)?
Revenue at Kier Group is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kier Group (KIERF)?
Earnings per share at Kier Group are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kier Group (KIERF) hold?
Kier Group holds more cash than debt, £53.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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