Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd stock $18.69, price $18.45, upside +1.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.66 – $19.64 · fair‑value band $9.88 – $26.67 · the $18.45 price screens below the $18.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Kirin Holdings Company, Limited engages in food and beverages, alcoholic beverages, pharmaceuticals, and health science businesses. The company's products include beer, wine, soft drinks, dairy products, margarine, jams, and honey.
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It engages in the management and operation of a chain of Kirin City beer pubs. The company also produces and sells pharmaceutical products.
In addition, it manufactures and sells amino acids and nucleic acids for pharmaceutical and industrial use, as well as bulk pharmaceuticals, machines, cosmetics, and health foods. Further, the company provides logistics, accounting, human resources, and real estate services.
Additionally, it is involved in the development of internal information systems and the manufacturing and sale of nutritional supplements. The company was formerly known as Kirin Brewery Company, Limited and changed its name to Kirin Holdings Company, Limited in July 2007.
Kirin Holdings Company, Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Nakano, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) currently trades at $18.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.69, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $21.03 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the $18.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.35, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.88 (bear) to $26.67 (bull), the price of $18.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2025 versus ¥1.8T in FY2021, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥155B in FY2025, compounding +26.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.8B · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $1.54 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 1%, KNBWY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.88Fair Value $18.69Bull$26.67
Price $18.45 · Upside +1.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8493 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.4% vs 8.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (81 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−5.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kirin Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KNBWY
Frequently asked questions
Is Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.69 versus a price of $18.45, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KNBWY?
Our model-based fair value for Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is $18.69 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.45.
What is the quality score of KNBWY?
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.69 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.88, optimistic scenario $26.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kirin Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.69, about +1% upside versus a price of $18.45 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.88, optimistic scenario $26.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.5T (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Kirin Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.57% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kirin Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNBWY use?
Our models discount Kirin Holdings Co Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kirin Holdings Co Ltd that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.36 %: that much free cash flow Kirin Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kirin Holdings Co Ltd it is $18.69 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $18.45. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kirin Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, KNBWY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.45, fair value $18.69, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNBWY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.69). For Kirin Holdings Co Ltd the two are $0.2400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kirin Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Kirin Holdings Co Ltd at about $14.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $18.45; our models calculate a fair value of $18.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNBWY?
Our models span a range for Kirin Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario $9.88, base $18.69, optimistic $26.67 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $18.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNBWY?
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 1.8, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of KNBWY?
The PEG ratio of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNBWY from its 52-week high?
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd trades at $18.45, about 6% below its 52-week high of $19.64 and 33% above the low of $13.90 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kirin Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kirin Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $18.45, calculated fair value $18.69 (+1%), Quality Score 58/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNBWY calculated?
We run Kirin Holdings Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Kirin Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $18.45. Our model-based fair value is $18.69, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kirin Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.88 to $26.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) come from?
Earnings per share at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd grew +5.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The market capitalisation of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is $14.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Earnings per share at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd are $1.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The dividend yield of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 2.6% (payout 30.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The net margin of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
The operating margin of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Revenue at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY)?
Earnings per share at Kirin Holdings Co Ltd are growing +165% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kirin Holdings Co Ltd (KNBWY) carry?
The net debt of Kirin Holdings Co Ltd is ¥799B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026