Knife River Corporation (KNF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $4.7B
Knife River Corporation
KNF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −16.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 43% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($49.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($26.48 to $49.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range $35.02 – $107.31 · fair‑value band $26.48 – $49.68 · the $66.80 price screens above the $37.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Knife River Corporation (KNF) currently trades at $66.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.83, implying the stock looks roughly 43.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Knife River Corporation generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $26.48 (bear case) to $49.68 (bull case); at $66.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -43%, KNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($47.06) versus Asset-Based ($19.37). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Knife River Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company operates through West, Mountain, Central, and Energy Services segments.
Full company description
Knife River Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company operates through West, Mountain, Central, and Energy Services segments. It mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates, including crushed stone and sand, and gravel; and produces and sells asphalt and ready-mix concrete. The company also provides contracting services, such as heavy-civil construction, asphalt and concrete paving, and site development and grading. In addition, it sells cement, merchandise, and other building materials and related services; and produces and supplies liquid asphalt for use in asphalt road construction. The company sells its construction materials to public and private-sector customers comprising federal, state, and municipal governments; industrial, commercial, and residential developers, as well as other private parties; and provides its contracting services to public-sector customers for the development and servicing of highways, local roads, bridges, and other public-infrastructure projects. Knife River Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Knife River Corporation reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $157M in FY2025, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2021.
KNF screens 43% overvalued. Compare with CRH plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Knife River Corp (KNF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Offset by ...
- Knife River (KNF) Is Down 12.0% After Q2 Revenue Beat But Profit Miss - What's Changed
- Knife River (KNF) Could Be 33% Undervalued Following Earnings And 2026 Guidance
- Knife River Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Building Materials · 254 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRH plc CRH | $102.92 | $70.57 | -31% |
| UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO | ₹11,711 | ₹4,719 | -60% |
| China Jushi Co 600176 | ¥54.52 | ¥13.95 | -74% |
| Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM | ₹3,073 | ₹1,245 | -59% |
| CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO | 21.71 MXN | 15.42 MXN | -29% |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 | ¥16.99 | ¥26.14 | +54% |
| Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM | ₹435.25 | ₹227.96 | -48% |
| Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM | ₹26,930 | ₹8,215 | -69% |
| TCC Group 1101B | 43.70 TWD | 10.48 TWD | -76% |
| Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 | 53.30 TWD | 13.98 TWD | -74% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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