Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kosmos Energy Ltd $0.50, price $2.65, upside -81.1%, quality 16 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8707 – $8.55 · fair‑value band $0.3740 – $0.7565 · the $2.65 price screens above the $0.5015 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kosmos Energy Ltd., a deepwater exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. It has oil and gas production projects in offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal, and the Gulf of America. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) currently trades at $2.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5015, implying the stock looks roughly 428.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.3740 (bear) to $0.7565 (bull), the price of $2.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kosmos Energy Ltd reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$700M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) $−1.04 · Net margin −53.9% · Return on equity −63.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% · Operating margin 53.8% · Revenue (TTM) $1.6B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 204% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −81%, KOS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3740Fair Value $0.5015Bull $0.7565
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.4% (2020) → −20.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score12 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−34% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth55% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.03× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.01× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kosmos Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KOS
Frequently asked questions
Is Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5015 versus a price of $2.65, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KOS?
Our model-based fair value for Kosmos Energy Ltd is $0.5015 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.65.
What is the quality score of KOS?
Kosmos Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5015 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3740, optimistic scenario $0.7565. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kosmos Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5015, about −81% upside versus a price of $2.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3740, optimistic scenario $0.7565. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Kosmos Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kosmos Energy Ltd it is $0.5015 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.65. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kosmos Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KOS trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.65, fair value $0.5015, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5015). For Kosmos Energy Ltd the two are $2.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kosmos Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Kosmos Energy Ltd at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.65; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5015 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KOS?
Our models span a range for Kosmos Energy Ltd: cautious scenario $0.3740, base $0.5015, optimistic $0.7565 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kosmos Energy Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −63.0%, debt of 5.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KOS from its 52-week high?
Kosmos Energy Ltd trades at $2.65, about 19% below its 52-week high of $3.27 and 204% above the low of $0.8707 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5015 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kosmos Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kosmos Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.65, calculated fair value $0.5015 (−81%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KOS calculated?
We run Kosmos Energy Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5015, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kosmos Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $2.65. Our model-based fair value is $0.5015, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kosmos Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7565). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3740 to $0.7565) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kosmos Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The market capitalisation of Kosmos Energy Ltd is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kosmos Energy Ltd is 1.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Earnings per share at Kosmos Energy Ltd are $−1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The net margin of Kosmos Energy Ltd is −53.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kosmos Energy Ltd is −63.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kosmos Energy Ltd is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
The operating margin of Kosmos Energy Ltd is 53.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Revenue at Kosmos Energy Ltd is growing +54.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
Earnings per share at Kosmos Energy Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) generate?
The free cash flow of Kosmos Energy Ltd is −$180M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) carry?
The net debt of Kosmos Energy Ltd is $3.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026