Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $1.5B
Kosmos Energy Ltd
KOS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $1.60 to $0.6000 (−62.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.4500 to $0.8900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8707 – $8.55 · fair‑value band $0.4500 – $0.8900 · the $2.48 price screens above the $0.6000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) currently trades at $2.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kosmos Energy Ltd generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of -59.5%. Revenue grew 27.7% year over year. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.4500 (bear case) to $0.8900 (bull case); at $2.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 197% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -76%, KOS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kosmos Energy Ltd., a deepwater exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. It has oil and gas production projects in offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Senegal, and the Gulf of America. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kosmos Energy Ltd reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$700M in FY2025.
KOS screens 76% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 88/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
Compare Kosmos Energy Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of KOS?
What is the quality score of KOS?
What is the revenue of Kosmos Energy Ltd (KOS)?
What is the net profit margin of KOS?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Kosmos Energy Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.