Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Koninklijke KPN NV stock €3.77, price €4.45, that is 15.3% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 15% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 63/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +2.0 %/yr in EUR)
Solidly profitable · 15.2% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
4.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat72/100
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
Fair value €3.77 · Overvalued (−15.3%)
High debt
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Satellite competitors acquiring spectrum for direct mobile services🚩Agentic AI could reduce telco service demand🚩MVNOs on its network could squeeze retail prices🚩Regulators could block fiber network consolidation
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.10 – €4.76 · fair‑value band €2.49 – €5.47 · the €4.45 price screens above the €3.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Koninklijke KPN N.V. provides telecommunications and information technology (IT) services in the Netherlands. The company operates through Consumer, Business, Wholesale and Network, and Operations & IT segments.
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It offers fixed and mobile telephony, fixed and mobile broadband internet, and TV to retail and business consumers; infrastructure and network-related IT solutions to business customers; and wholesale network services to third parties.
The company also provides network-related ICT solutions, such as security, internet of things, cloud, connectivity, and smart combinations; interconnect traffic, visitor roaming, digital products, and NL-ix interconnect exchange services; and sale of handsets and peripheral equipment, as well as software licenses.
It offers its products and services under the KPN, XS4ALL, Simyo, KPN Security, KPN Health, Solcon, Inspark, and KPN Partner Network, KPN IoT, and youfone brands. The company was formerly known as Koninklijke PTT Nederland NV and changed its name to Koninklijke KPN N.V. in June 1998.
Koninklijke KPN N.V. was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) currently trades at €4.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.77, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.99 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the €4.45 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €1.48, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.49 (bear) to €5.47 (bull), the price of €4.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Koninklijke KPN NV reported revenue of €5.8B in FY2025 versus €5.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €855M in FY2025, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €16.8B Large · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 2.86 · EPS (TTM) €0.2200 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity 27.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −15%, KPN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.49Fair Value €3.77Bull€5.47
Price €4.45 · Downside -15.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0263 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Per share before 1997divided by the spin-off factor 1.0256
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 6.6% / 2.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 48%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.5% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (68 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate infrastructure-based organization capital supports decent profitability metrics, while thin moat signals across other factors and elevated debt relative to equity remain the main weakness.
Main risk: Agentic AI tools could automate customer interactions and network tasks enough to cut demand for traditional telecom services and pressure KPN revenues and margins.
Bull case: KPN could integrate agentic AI deeply into its operations and customer offerings to cut costs faster than rivals and develop new AI-enhanced connectivity services that offset any demand shifts.
Bear case: Agentic AI could reduce service needs while MVNOs and regulatory blocks persist and thereby put sustained pressure on KPN retail revenues, slow fiber expansion and thin margins across its core telecom business.
KPN is promoting long-serving internal leaders into the CFO and CTO roles while streamlining its management structure so that HR reports directly to the CEO. This approach draws on proven company knowledge to drive the fiber rollout and digital services. Will the focus on continuity deliver steadier execution or leave the business short of outside perspectives needed for faster adaptation?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.2× · Pricier than median
P/B6.64× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.86× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.1× · Pricier than median
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Is Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.77 versus a price of €4.45, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KPN?
Our model-based fair value for Koninklijke KPN NV is €3.77 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.45.
What is the quality score of KPN?
Koninklijke KPN NV has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.77 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.49, optimistic scenario €5.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koninklijke KPN NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.77, about 15% lower versus a price of €4.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.49, optimistic scenario €5.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Koninklijke KPN NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Koninklijke KPN NV pay a dividend?
Koninklijke KPN NV currently shows a dividend yield of 4.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Koninklijke KPN NV would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KPN use?
Our models discount Koninklijke KPN NV at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Netherlands. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Koninklijke KPN NV that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Koninklijke KPN NV grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Koninklijke KPN NV (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.22 %: that much free cash flow Koninklijke KPN NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koninklijke KPN NV it is €3.77 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €4.45. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Koninklijke KPN NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, KPN trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.45, fair value €3.77, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.77). For Koninklijke KPN NV the two are €0.6810 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koninklijke KPN NV worth?
The market values Koninklijke KPN NV at about €16.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €4.45; our models calculate a fair value of €3.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KPN?
Our models span a range for Koninklijke KPN NV: cautious scenario €2.49, base €3.77, optimistic €5.47 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €4.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KPN?
Koninklijke KPN NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.77 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 19.3 (reported for FY2025: 21.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 16.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 6.6, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
What is the PEG ratio of KPN?
The PEG ratio of Koninklijke KPN NV is 2.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koninklijke KPN NV (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 27.3%, debt of 2.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KPN from its 52-week high?
Koninklijke KPN NV trades at €4.45, about 6% below its 52-week high of €4.76 and 20% above the low of €3.71 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koninklijke KPN NV?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koninklijke KPN NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €4.45, calculated fair value €3.77 (−15%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KPN calculated?
We run Koninklijke KPN NV through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Koninklijke KPN NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €4.45. Our model-based fair value is €3.77, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koninklijke KPN NV right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€2.49 to €5.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) come from?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke KPN NV grew +2.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.7 %, EBIT margin +13.0 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Koninklijke KPN NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The market capitalisation of Koninklijke KPN NV is €16.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koninklijke KPN NV is 2.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Earnings per share at Koninklijke KPN NV are €0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The dividend yield of Koninklijke KPN NV is 4.2% (payout 76.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 85.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The net margin of Koninklijke KPN NV is 15.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koninklijke KPN NV is 27.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koninklijke KPN NV is 13.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
The operating margin of Koninklijke KPN NV is 24.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN)?
Revenue at Koninklijke KPN NV is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Koninklijke KPN NV (KPN) carry?
The net debt of Koninklijke KPN NV is €8.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026