Joint Stock Company (KSPI) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $15.6B

A solid business, screening 84% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($111.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The model range is unusually wide ($111.89 to $475.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $34.64 – $128.73 · fair‑value band $111.89 – $475.07 · the $90.30 price screens below the $166.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Joint Stock Company (KSPI) currently trades at $90.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $166.05, implying the stock looks roughly 83.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Joint Stock Company generated revenue of $3.6T at a net margin of 24.9%. Revenue grew 31.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $433B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $111.89 (bear case) to $475.07 (bull case); at $90.30, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at 84%, KSPI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($191,257) versus Asset-Based ($8,786). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech.

Full company description

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments segment offers a platform that facilities transactions between and among merchants and consumers. This segment provides ways for consumers to pay for shopping transactions and regular household bills, as well as make peer to peer payments; and enables merchants to accept payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor merchant turnover. It also offers proprietary data, which facilitates informed decision-making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects both online and offline merchants with consumers, enabling merchants to increase sales through an omnichannel strategy and allowing consumers to purchase products and services from various merchants. This segment operates marketplaces through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person; e-Commerce, which allows consumers to shop anywhere and anytime with free delivery; and Kaspi Travel that allows consumers to book domestic and international flights, domestic rail tickets, and international package holidays. It also enhances merchants' sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with buy-now-pay-later, finance and savings products, and merchants with merchant finance services. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; e-grocery; classifieds; and storage and processing of information services. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Joint Stock Company reported revenue of $3.9T in FY2025 versus $885B in FY2021, a compound +45.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0T in FY2025, compounding +24.5%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.