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Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lithium Argentina AG $3.13, price $5.68, upside -44.9%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · Home Switzerland · ISIN CH1403212751

LA Lithium Argentina AG logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Lithium Argentina AG

LAR · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $3.13 · Strongly overvalued (−45%)
!Quality 28/100
!Weak Growth
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/9)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.49 $1.73 Fair Value $3.13 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.73 – $16.49 · fair‑value band $2.34 – $4.67 · the $5.68 price screens above the $3.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Lithium Argentina AG, a resource company, engages in the operation and development of lithium projects in Argentina. It owns interests in the Cauchari-Olaroz project located in Jujuy province; and the Pastos Grandes project located in Salta Province of Argentina. The company was formerly known as Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp.

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Lithium Argentina AG, a resource company, engages in the operation and development of lithium projects in Argentina. It owns interests in the Cauchari-Olaroz project located in Jujuy province; and the Pastos Grandes project located in Salta Province of Argentina. The company was formerly known as Lithium Americas (Argentina) Corp. and changed its name to Lithium Argentina AG in January 2025. Lithium Argentina AG was incorporated in 2007 is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) currently trades at $5.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.13, implying the stock looks roughly 81.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 90/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $2.34 (bear) to $4.67 (bull), the price of $5.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Lithium Argentina AG reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$75.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $986M · EPS (TTM) $−0.3300 · Return on equity −6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.9% · Free cash flow −$30.5M · Net debt $173M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, LAR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.34 Fair Value $3.13 Bull $4.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $2.34 $3.13 $4.67 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.34 $3.13 $4.67 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 33
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LAR screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.29× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.42× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Boliden AB BOL kr 539.40 kr 464.47 −14%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%

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Lithium Argentina AG · Fair Value
$3.13 −81%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lithium Argentina AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LAR

Frequently asked questions

Is Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.13 versus a price of $5.68, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LAR?
Our model-based fair value for Lithium Argentina AG is $3.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.68.
What is the quality score of LAR?
Lithium Argentina AG has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.34, optimistic scenario $4.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lithium Argentina AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.13, about −45% upside versus a price of $5.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.34, optimistic scenario $4.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lithium Argentina AG it is $3.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.68. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lithium Argentina AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LAR trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.68, fair value $3.13, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.13). For Lithium Argentina AG the two are $2.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lithium Argentina AG worth?
The market values Lithium Argentina AG at about $986M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.68; our models calculate a fair value of $3.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LAR?
Our models span a range for Lithium Argentina AG: cautious scenario $2.34, base $3.13, optimistic $4.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LAR?
The PEG ratio of Lithium Argentina AG is 0.42 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lithium Argentina AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.6%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LAR from its 52-week high?
Lithium Argentina AG trades at $5.68, about 52% below its 52-week high of $11.79 and 70% above the low of $3.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lithium Argentina AG?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lithium Argentina AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.68, calculated fair value $3.13 (−45%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LAR calculated?
We run Lithium Argentina AG through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lithium Argentina AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.68. Our model-based fair value is $3.13, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lithium Argentina AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.34 to $4.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Lithium Argentina AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
The market capitalisation of Lithium Argentina AG is $986M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
Earnings per share at Lithium Argentina AG are $−0.3300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lithium Argentina AG is −6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lithium Argentina AG (LAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lithium Argentina AG is −3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) generate?
The free cash flow of Lithium Argentina AG is −$30.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lithium Argentina AG (LAR) carry?
The net debt of Lithium Argentina AG is $173M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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