Lake Resources N.L. (LKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Lake Resources N.L. A$0.03, price A$0.04, upside -15.9%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0260 – A$2.45 · fair‑value band A$0.0310 – A$0.0415 · the A$0.0410 price screens above the A$0.0345 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lake Resources NL engages in the exploration and development of lithium brine and mineral properties primarily in Argentina, Australia, and the United States. Its flagship project is the Kachi lithium brine project located in the Catamarca province of Argentina. Lake Resources NL was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lake Resources N.L. (LKE) currently trades at A$0.0410, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0345, implying the stock looks roughly 18.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0310 (bear) to A$0.0415 (bull), the price of A$0.0410 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Lake Resources N.L. reported revenue of A$5.7M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$19.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$115M (≈ $80.9M) · P/S ratio 63.7 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.5% · Operating margin −1,813% · Revenue growth (YoY) −85.7% · Free cash flow −A$30.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −16%, LKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0310Fair Value A$0.0345Bull A$0.0415
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−74.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.3%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−453.5% (2001) → −378.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−86% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lake Resources N.L. (LKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0345 versus a price of A$0.0410, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LKE?
Our model-based fair value for Lake Resources N.L. is A$0.0345 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0410.
What is the quality score of LKE?
Lake Resources N.L. has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0345 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0310, optimistic scenario A$0.0415. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lake Resources N.L. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0345, about −16% upside versus a price of A$0.0410 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0310, optimistic scenario A$0.0415. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lake Resources N.L. it is A$0.0345 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0410. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lake Resources N.L. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LKE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0410, fair value A$0.0345, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0410); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0345). For Lake Resources N.L. the two are A$0.0065 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lake Resources N.L. worth?
The market values Lake Resources N.L. at about A$115M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0410; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0345 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LKE?
Our models span a range for Lake Resources N.L.: cautious scenario A$0.0310, base A$0.0345, optimistic A$0.0415 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0410). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lake Resources N.L. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −18.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LKE from its 52-week high?
Lake Resources N.L. trades at A$0.0410, about 74% below its 52-week high of A$0.1550 and 41% above the low of A$0.0290 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0345 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lake Resources N.L.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lake Resources N.L. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0410, calculated fair value A$0.0345 (−16%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LKE calculated?
We run Lake Resources N.L. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0345, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Lake Resources N.L. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0410. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0345, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lake Resources N.L. right now?
Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Lake Resources N.L.
How large is the market capitalisation of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
The market capitalisation of Lake Resources N.L. is A$115M (≈ $80.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lake Resources N.L. is 63.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
Earnings per share at Lake Resources N.L. are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lake Resources N.L. is −18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lake Resources N.L. is −8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
The operating margin of Lake Resources N.L. is −1,813% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lake Resources N.L. (LKE)?
Revenue at Lake Resources N.L. is growing −85.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lake Resources N.L. (LKE) generate?
The free cash flow of Lake Resources N.L. is −A$30.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lake Resources N.L. (LKE) hold?
Lake Resources N.L. holds more cash than debt, A$10.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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