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BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $356M

BC BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas logo BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas LND · US
Price$3.60
Fair Value$7.67
Upside+113.1%
Quality44/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -1.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.95% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 6/100
Evidence: High Range $4.25 – $8.91 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Share price +1.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 113% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.25). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • A fairly wide model range ($4.25 to $8.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$5.72 $2.99 Fair Value $7.67 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.99 – $5.72 · fair‑value band $4.25 – $8.91 · the $3.60 price screens below the $7.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) currently trades at $3.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.67, implying the stock looks roughly 113.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas generated revenue of $939M at a net margin of -1.6%. Revenue declined 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.7%. Net debt stands at $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $4.25 (bear case) to $8.91 (bull case); at $3.60, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at 113%, LND screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $3.88 $8.89 $18.11 80
Residual Income $14.20 $13.19 $8.91 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.5700 $2.95 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.39 $8.12 $19.26 38
Owner Earnings $1.35 $6.21 31
5Y Revenue Exit $0.0200 $1.57 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.25 $10.25 $21.93 41
5Y P/E Exit $1.50 $6.47 $12.98 38
10Y Revenue Exit $0.9400 $3.41 $4.17 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.31 $13.18 $29.01 37
10Y P/E Exit $2.48 $7.84 $16.48 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.65 $11.48 $16.11 54
Lynch FV $4.16 $5.95 $7.73 50
PEG = 1.0 $4.16 $5.95 $7.73 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.17 $21.92 $30.18 70
DDM Multi-Stage $12.17 $20.03 $23.42 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.81 $5.08 $6.35 63
P/S Multiple $1.83 $2.44 $3.05 58
P/B Multiple $3.09 $4.12 $5.14 55
EV/EBITDA $4.11 $6.71 $9.32 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.93 $14.65 $21.86 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $3.88 $8.89 $18.11 80
Rev-Margin DCF $0.5700 $2.95 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.20 $13.19 $8.91 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.37 $7.67 $9.97 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($20.03) versus Growth DCF ($0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $939M
Revenue growth (YoY) -15.5%
Net margin -1.6%
Return on equity -0.7%
Free cash flow $59.3M FY2025
Operating margin -7.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.0300
Dividend yield 4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -73.5%
Net debt $1.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and sale of agricultural properties in Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. It operates through six segments: Real Estate, Grains, Sugarcane, Cattle Raising, Cotton, and Other.

Full company description

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and sale of agricultural properties in Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia. It operates through six segments: Real Estate, Grains, Sugarcane, Cattle Raising, Cotton, and Other. The company is involved in the cultivation of soybean, corn, sugarcane, sesame, sorghum, bean, and cotton lint and seed, as well as pasture; and production and sale of beef calves after weaning. It also engages in exploration, import, and export of agricultural activities and inputs, cattle raising, livestock, investment properties; and forestry activities; purchases, sells, and rents real estate in rural and/or urban properties; and sale of the raw products. In addition, the company provides real estate brokerage services; manages third-party assets; and operates farms through own and leased lands. BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas reported revenue of $152M in FY2025 versus $716M in FY2021, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was $24.1M in FY2025, compounding −47.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$152M
Latest YoY
−85.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−51.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−22.5%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+35.3%
Revenue −32.1%/yr
FY21 $716M
FY22 $1.4B
FY23 $1.2B
FY24 $1.0B
FY25 $152M
Net income −47.5%/yr
FY21 $318M
FY22 $520M
FY23 $269M
FY24 $227M
FY25 $24.1M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LND

Peer Group

Farm Products · 288 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside +113% · Top 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -7% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -16% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.24× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.38× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 25
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 0 · sector 17
HEALTH 88 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 79 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.90 ¥48.19 +18%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.51 ¥12.08 -17%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 188.40 kr 262.59 +39%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 3,120 IDR 7,076 IDR +127%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 22.00 THB 55.71 THB +153%
PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG 1,540 IDR 3,105 IDR +102%
PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA 7,300 IDR 7,463 IDR +2%
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA 2,070 IDR 7,231 IDR +249%
Thaifoods Group TFGR 10.60 THB 23.53 THB +122%
PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR 1,845 IDR 610.80 IDR -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.67 versus a price of $3.60, about +113% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LND?
Our model-based fair value for BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas is $7.67 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $3.60.
What is the quality score of LND?
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND)?
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $939M (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LND?
The net profit margin of BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas is about -1.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas pay a dividend?
BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 24, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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