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Longfor Group (LNGPF) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $9.3B

LG Longfor Group logo Longfor Group LNGPF · US
Price$0.8815
Fair Value$1.55
Upside+75.8%
Quality52/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.19% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: Medium Range $0.8100 – $1.55 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Share price −34.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 76% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($0.8100 to $1.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$4.69 $0.7642 Fair Value $1.55 Apr 2016 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.7642 – $4.69 · fair‑value band $0.8100 – $1.55 · the $0.8815 price screens below the $1.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Longfor Group (LNGPF) currently trades at $0.8815, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.55, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Longfor Group generated revenue of $97.3B at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 52.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at $137B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.8100 (bear case) to $1.55 (bull case); at $0.8815, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 76%, LNGPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $21.75 $46.07 $84.14 80
Residual Income $15.85 $14.67 $10.09 76
Rev-Margin DCF $4.81 $11.49 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $21.88 $48.07 $90.35 38
5Y Revenue Exit $4.28 $9.55 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $0.7400 $6.55 $12.95 41
10Y Revenue Exit $7.09 $13.84 $22.25 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $7.94 $15.45 $24.96 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8400 $1.67 $2.54 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8400 $1.45 $1.77 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple $1.85 $2.47 $3.08 58
P/B Multiple $1.85 $2.47 $3.08 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.87 $15.90 $23.74 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $21.75 $46.07 $84.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF $4.81 $11.49 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.85 $14.67 $10.09 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($15.90) versus Dividend Discount ($1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $97.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) -52.2%
Net margin 1.1%
Return on equity 0.4%
Free cash flow $21.8B FY2025
P/E ratio 7.9
More key figures
Operating margin -3.4%
EPS (TTM) $0.1700
Dividend yield 5.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -46.9%
Net debt $137B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Longfor Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, property operation, asset management, property management, and smart construction businesses in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through three segments: Property Development, Investment Property Operation, and Property Service.

Full company description

Longfor Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development, property operation, asset management, property management, and smart construction businesses in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through three segments: Property Development, Investment Property Operation, and Property Service. The Property Development segment develops and sells office and commercial premises, and residential properties. The Investment Property Operation segment leases investment properties, including shopping malls and rental housing. The Property Service segment provides property management and related services. It also owns hotel properties. The company was formerly known as Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Longfor Group Holdings Limited in June 2018. Longfor Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Longfor Group reported revenue of $94.9B in FY2025 versus $223B in FY2021, a compound −19.3%/yr. Reported net income was $995M in FY2025, compounding −54.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$94.9B
Latest YoY
−25.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−27.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−12.4%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y)
+19.7%
Revenue −19.3%/yr
FY21 $223B
FY22 $251B
FY23 $181B
FY24 $127B
FY25 $94.9B
Net income −54.8%/yr
FY21 $23.9B
FY22 $24.4B
FY23 $12.9B
FY24 $10.4B
FY25 $995M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Longfor Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LNGPF

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +76% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -3% · Below median
Revenue growth -52% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.84× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.06× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.10× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 37.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.37× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 48
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 2 · sector 10
HEALTH 58 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,100 IDR 6,239 IDR +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Longfor Group (LNGPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.55 versus a price of $0.8815, about +76% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNGPF?
Our model-based fair value for Longfor Group is $1.55 (as of Jul 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $0.8815.
What is the quality score of LNGPF?
Longfor Group has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Longfor Group (LNGPF)?
Longfor Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $97.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LNGPF?
The net profit margin of Longfor Group is about 1.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Longfor Group pay a dividend?
Longfor Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.19% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 27, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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