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LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what LanzaTech Global Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Jun 23, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US51655R2004

LG LanzaTech Global Inc. logo Thin data Jun 23, 2026

LanzaTech Global Inc.

LNZA · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $8.53 · Undervalued (+41.2%)
!Quality 45/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -87.7% net margin (FY2025)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/7)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,043 $5.20 Fair Value $8.53 Sep 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.20 – $1,043 · fair‑value band $6.40 – $10.67 · the $6.04 price screens below the $8.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

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Company profile

LanzaTech Global, Inc. operates as a nature-based carbon refining company in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It develops technology that transforms waste carbon into chemical building blocks for transportation fuels, household cleaners, packaging materials, fibers for clothing, and fragrances.

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LanzaTech Global, Inc. operates as a nature-based carbon refining company in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. It develops technology that transforms waste carbon into chemical building blocks for transportation fuels, household cleaners, packaging materials, fibers for clothing, and fragrances. The company's gas fermentation technology platform converts waste carbon gases into ethanol and its derivative products. It also provides techno-economic feasibility studies; basic engineering design services for commercial plants; and biotechnology research and development services for commercial and government entities. In addition, the company licenses and sells biocatalysts, such as microbes and media. Further, it provides fuel-grade ethanol under the CarbonSmart brand; and protein-rich byproducts, which are used as industrial protein, animal and fish feed, and fertilizers. LanzaTech Global, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Skokie, Illinois.

Stock analysis

LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA) currently trades at $6.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.53, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $6.40 (bear) to $10.67 (bull), the price of $6.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

LanzaTech Global Inc. reported revenue of $55.8M in FY2025 versus $25.5M in FY2021, a compound +21.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.0M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $77.5M · P/E ratio 0.3 · P/S ratio 1.33 · EPS (TTM) $20.01 · Net margin −87.7% · Return on equity 139% · Return on assets (EBIT) −52.4% · Operating margin −110%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 41%, LNZA screens cheaper than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 52
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−216.3% (2020) → −141.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 157 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −10.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −87.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −109.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 0.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)88 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $203.92 $224.31 +10%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $211.92 $128.63 −39%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN $150.66 $165.73 +10%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €30.73 €20.32 −34%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $313.04 $155.54 −50%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL $40.43 $34.29 −15%
Umicore SA UMI €21.40 €25.28 +18%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €10.72 €7.30 −32%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST $82.24 $14.82 −82%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.12 ¥5.27 −14%

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LanzaTech Global Inc. · Fair Value
$8.53 +29%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LanzaTech Global Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LNZA

Frequently asked questions

Is LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.53 versus a price of $6.04, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNZA?
Our model-based fair value for LanzaTech Global Inc. is $8.53 (as of Jun 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.04.
What is the quality score of LNZA?
LanzaTech Global Inc. has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.53 (as of Jun 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.40, optimistic scenario $10.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LanzaTech Global Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.53, about +41% upside versus a price of $6.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.40, optimistic scenario $10.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
LanzaTech Global Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $58.3M (latest available figure, as of Jun 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LanzaTech Global Inc. it is $8.53 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026), against a price of $6.04. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LanzaTech Global Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 23, 2026, LNZA trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.04, fair value $8.53, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LNZA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.53). For LanzaTech Global Inc. the two are $2.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LanzaTech Global Inc. worth?
The market values LanzaTech Global Inc. at about $77.5M (market capitalisation, as of Jun 23, 2026). Per share that is $6.04; our models calculate a fair value of $8.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LNZA?
Our models span a range for LanzaTech Global Inc.: cautious scenario $6.40, base $8.53, optimistic $10.67 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026, price $6.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LNZA?
LanzaTech Global Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.3 (as of Jun 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.53 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
Balance-sheet figures for LanzaTech Global Inc. (as of Jun 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LNZA from its 52-week high?
LanzaTech Global Inc. trades at $6.04, about 85% below its 52-week high of $41.42 and 16% above the low of $5.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LanzaTech Global Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LanzaTech Global Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 23, 2026: price $6.04, calculated fair value $8.53 (+41%), Quality Score 45/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LNZA calculated?
We run LanzaTech Global Inc. through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. LanzaTech Global Inc. currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.04. Our model-based fair value is $8.53, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LanzaTech Global Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of LanzaTech Global Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The market capitalisation of LanzaTech Global Inc. is $77.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LanzaTech Global Inc. is 1.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
Earnings per share at LanzaTech Global Inc. are $20.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The net margin of LanzaTech Global Inc. is −87.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LanzaTech Global Inc. is 139% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LanzaTech Global Inc. is −52.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
The operating margin of LanzaTech Global Inc. is −110% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA)?
Revenue at LanzaTech Global Inc. is growing −0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA) generate?
The free cash flow of LanzaTech Global Inc. is −$66.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does LanzaTech Global Inc. (LNZA) carry?
The net debt of LanzaTech Global Inc. is $14.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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