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Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Liontown Resources Ltd A$0.12, price A$1.05, upside -88.6%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000LTR4

LR Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Liontown Resources Ltd

LTR · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.1200 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 25/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +188.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -89.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$3.15 A$0.4350 Fair Value A$0.1200 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.4350 – A$3.15 · fair‑value band A$0.0900 – A$0.1800 · the A$1.05 price screens above the A$0.1200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Liontown Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium and nickel deposits. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia.

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Liontown Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium and nickel deposits. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Liontown Resources Limited and change its name to Liontown Limited in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) currently trades at A$1.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1200, implying the stock looks roughly 774.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0900 (bear) to A$0.1800 (bull), the price of A$1.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Liontown Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$298M in FY2025 versus A$1.5M in FY2020, a compound +188.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$193M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$3.7B (≈ $2.6B) · P/S ratio 9.09 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1400 · Net margin −65.0% · Return on equity −47.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.8% · Operating margin −33.3% · Revenue (TTM) A$405M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −89%, LTR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0900 Fair Value A$0.1200 Bull A$0.1800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0900 A$0.1200 A$0.1800 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0900 A$0.1200 A$0.1800 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 21
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 38
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+188.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +90.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−860.3% (2020) → −62.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LTR screens 775% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −89% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −33% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 107% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.56× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.46× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 6.40× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥36.66 ¥54.86 +50%

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Liontown Resources Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1200 −775%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Liontown Resources Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LTR

Frequently asked questions

Is Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1200 versus a price of A$1.05, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LTR?
Our model-based fair value for Liontown Resources Ltd is A$0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.05.
What is the quality score of LTR?
Liontown Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Liontown Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1200, about −89% upside versus a price of A$1.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0900, optimistic scenario A$0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Liontown Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$405M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Liontown Resources Ltd it is A$0.1200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$1.05. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Liontown Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LTR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.05, fair value A$0.1200, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1200). For Liontown Resources Ltd the two are A$0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Liontown Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Liontown Resources Ltd at about A$3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$1.05; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LTR?
Our models span a range for Liontown Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0900, base A$0.1200, optimistic A$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$1.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Liontown Resources Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −47.6%, debt of 0.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LTR from its 52-week high?
Liontown Resources Ltd trades at A$1.05, about 60% below its 52-week high of A$2.64 and 19% above the low of A$0.8800 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Liontown Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Liontown Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$1.05, calculated fair value A$0.1200 (−89%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LTR calculated?
We run Liontown Resources Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Liontown Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$1.05. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1200, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Liontown Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0900 to A$0.1800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Liontown Resources Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The market capitalisation of Liontown Resources Ltd is A$3.7B (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Liontown Resources Ltd is 9.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Earnings per share at Liontown Resources Ltd are A$−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The net margin of Liontown Resources Ltd is −65.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Liontown Resources Ltd is −47.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Liontown Resources Ltd is −20.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The operating margin of Liontown Resources Ltd is −33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Revenue at Liontown Resources Ltd is growing +107% versus a year earlier (3y avg +692%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) generate?
The free cash flow of Liontown Resources Ltd is −A$330M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) carry?
The net debt of Liontown Resources Ltd is A$676M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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