Liontown Limited (LTR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$4.6B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from A$0.5500 to A$0.5400 (−1.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −19.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.7700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.2900 to A$0.7700). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4167 – A$3.15 · fair‑value band A$0.2900 – A$0.7700 · the A$1.18 price screens above the A$0.5400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Liontown Limited (LTR) currently trades at A$1.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5400, implying the stock looks roughly 54.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Liontown Limited generated revenue of A$405M at a net margin of -89.5%. Revenue grew 106.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -47.6%. Net debt stands at A$676M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.2900 (bear case) to A$0.7700 (bull case); at A$1.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -54%, LTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.5400) versus Asset-Based (A$0.1200). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Liontown Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium and nickel deposits. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia.
Full company description
Liontown Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium and nickel deposits. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Liontown Resources Limited and change its name to Liontown Limited in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Liontown Limited reported revenue of A$298M in FY2025 versus A$1.5M in FY2020, a compound +188.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$193M in FY2025.
LTR screens 54% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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