Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Liontown Resources Ltd stock A$0.30, price A$0.65, that is 53.9% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.4350 – A$3.15 · fair‑value band A$0.2380 – A$0.3570 · the A$0.6450 price screens above the A$0.2975 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Liontown Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for lithium and nickel deposits. Its flagship property is the Kathleen Valley lithium project located in Perth, Western Australia.
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The company was formerly known as Liontown Resources Limited and change its name to Liontown Limited in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) currently trades at A$0.6450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2975, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.3950 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.6450 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1900, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2380 (bear) to A$0.3570 (bull), the price of A$0.6450 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Liontown Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$639M in FY2026 versus A$600K in FY2021, a compound +303.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$92.6M in FY2026, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 21.5 · P/S ratio 3.21 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 27.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −54%, LTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.2380Fair Value A$0.2975BullA$0.3570
Price A$0.6450 · Downside -53.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0108 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.2400A$0.2800A$0.340080
Growth DCFA$0.2400A$0.2700A$0.330078
Owner EarningsA$0.1800A$0.2100A$0.250076
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.2400A$0.2800A$0.340080
Owner EarningsA$0.1800A$0.2100A$0.250076
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.2200A$0.2700A$0.350072
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.3200A$0.4500A$0.620073
5Y P/E ExitA$0.3200A$0.4400A$0.590069
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.2200A$0.2600A$0.300066
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.2800A$0.3500A$0.430068
10Y P/E ExitA$0.2800A$0.3500A$0.420063
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.2000A$0.2400A$0.270065
EPVA$0.1300A$0.1400A$0.140074
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.3700A$0.4900A$0.620063
P/S MultipleA$0.2300A$0.3000A$0.380058
P/B MultipleA$1.04A$1.38A$1.7355
EV/EBITA$0.1800A$0.2400A$0.290066
EV/EBITDAA$0.4000A$0.5200A$0.650067
EV/RevenueA$0.1600A$0.2200A$0.280054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.2300A$0.3100A$0.460054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.2400A$0.2700A$0.330078
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.2200A$0.2800A$0.350072
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.3400A$0.3400A$0.360068
ROIC CompounderA$0.1300A$0.1400A$0.140070
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.2600A$0.3800A$0.490065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+114.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,532.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+303.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +157.3% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+83.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1,846% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price and +20.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 371 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Fair Value upside−53.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)27.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)118.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.39× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.21× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)42.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 92
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2975 versus a price of A$0.6450, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LTR?
Our model-based fair value for Liontown Resources Ltd is A$0.2975 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.6450.
What is the quality score of LTR?
Liontown Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2975 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2380, optimistic scenario A$0.3570. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Liontown Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2975, about 54% lower versus a price of A$0.6450 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2380, optimistic scenario A$0.3570. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Liontown Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$639M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Liontown Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +29.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +303.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LTR use?
Our models discount Liontown Resources Ltd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Liontown Resources Ltd that is +29.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Liontown Resources Ltd grew +303.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +29.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Liontown Resources Ltd (+29.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.33 %: that much free cash flow Liontown Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Liontown Resources Ltd it is A$0.2975 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.6450. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Liontown Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, LTR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.6450, fair value A$0.2975, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.6450); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2975). For Liontown Resources Ltd the two are A$0.3475 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Liontown Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Liontown Resources Ltd at about A$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.6450; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2975 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LTR?
Our models span a range for Liontown Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2380, base A$0.2975, optimistic A$0.3570 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.6450). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LTR?
Liontown Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2975 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Liontown Resources Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LTR from its 52-week high?
Liontown Resources Ltd trades at A$0.6450, about 76% below its 52-week high of A$2.64 and 8% above the low of A$0.6000 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2975 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Liontown Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Liontown Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.6450, calculated fair value A$0.2975 (−54%), Quality Score 43/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LTR calculated?
We run Liontown Resources Ltd through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.2975 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Liontown Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.6450. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2975, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Liontown Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.3570). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Liontown Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The market capitalisation of Liontown Resources Ltd is A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Liontown Resources Ltd is 3.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Earnings per share at Liontown Resources Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The net margin of Liontown Resources Ltd is 14.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Liontown Resources Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Liontown Resources Ltd is −5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
The operating margin of Liontown Resources Ltd is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR)?
Revenue at Liontown Resources Ltd is growing +119% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) hold?
Liontown Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$55.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026