Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Luca Mining Corp. stock C$0.77, price C$1.02, that is 25.0% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.2200 – C$5.76 · fair‑value band C$0.5525 – C$1.16 · the C$1.02 price screens above the C$0.7650 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Luca Mining Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in North America. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, concentrate, lead, and copper deposits, as well as base and precious metals.
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It holds 100% interest in the Campo Morado mine that consists of six mining concessions covering an area of approximately 12,090 hectares located in Guerrero state, Mexico; and 100 % interest the Tahuehueto covering an area of approximately 7,492 hectares located in Durango State, Mexico.
The company was formerly known as Altaley Mining Corporation and changed its name to Luca Mining Corp. in March 2023. Luca Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) currently trades at C$1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.7650, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$1.03 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the C$1.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.2000, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.5525 (bear) to C$1.16 (bull), the price of C$1.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Luca Mining Corp. reported revenue of $177M in FY2025 versus $54.7M in FY2021, a compound +34.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$275M (≈ $195M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.22 · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 19.4% · Revenue (TTM) $212M · Revenue growth (YoY) +47.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −25%, LUCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$0.5525Fair Value C$0.7650BullC$1.16
Price C$1.02 · Downside -25.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFC$0.7000C$0.9000C$1.4674
Growth DCFC$0.6700C$0.9400C$1.3773
5Y EBITDA ExitC$0.4900C$0.6600C$0.990070
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$0.7000C$0.9000C$1.4674
5Y Revenue ExitC$0.6500C$0.9900C$1.7166
5Y EBITDA ExitC$0.4900C$0.6600C$0.990070
10Y Revenue ExitC$0.6500C$1.16C$1.4463
10Y EBITDA ExitC$0.5700C$0.8800C$1.3563
Multiples
EV/EBITDAC$0.1900C$0.2600C$0.340067
EV/RevenueC$0.4400C$0.6500C$0.850053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$0.1500C$0.2000C$0.300054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$0.6700C$0.9400C$1.3773
Rev-Margin DCFC$0.7000C$1.12C$1.9965
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+102.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+97.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +92.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Below median
Fair Value upside−25.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.0% · Above median
Return on assets−11.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)19.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)47.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.32× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.92× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 92
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.7650 versus a price of C$1.02, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LUCA?
Our model-based fair value for Luca Mining Corp. is C$0.7650 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.02.
What is the quality score of LUCA?
Luca Mining Corp. has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.7650 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.5525, optimistic scenario C$1.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luca Mining Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.7650, about 25% lower versus a price of C$1.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.5525, optimistic scenario C$1.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Luca Mining Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $212M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Luca Mining Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +34.1 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUCA use?
Our models discount Luca Mining Corp. at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.75, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Luca Mining Corp. that is +17.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Luca Mining Corp. grew +34.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Luca Mining Corp. (+17.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.24 %: that much free cash flow Luca Mining Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luca Mining Corp. it is C$0.7650 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of C$1.02. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Luca Mining Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, LUCA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$1.02, fair value C$0.7650, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.7650). For Luca Mining Corp. the two are C$0.2550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luca Mining Corp. worth?
The market values Luca Mining Corp. at about C$275M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is C$1.02; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.7650 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUCA?
Our models span a range for Luca Mining Corp.: cautious scenario C$0.5525, base C$0.7650, optimistic C$1.16 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price C$1.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luca Mining Corp. (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 1.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUCA from its 52-week high?
Luca Mining Corp. trades at C$1.02, about 50% below its 52-week high of C$2.05 and 26% above the low of C$0.8100 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.7650 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luca Mining Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luca Mining Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price C$1.02, calculated fair value C$0.7650 (−25%), Quality Score 33/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUCA calculated?
We run Luca Mining Corp. through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$0.7650 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Luca Mining Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$1.02. Our model-based fair value is C$0.7650, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luca Mining Corp. right now?
Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$0.5525 to C$1.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Luca Mining Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The market capitalisation of Luca Mining Corp. is C$275M (≈ $195M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luca Mining Corp. is 1.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The net margin of Luca Mining Corp. is 0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luca Mining Corp. is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luca Mining Corp. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The operating margin of Luca Mining Corp. is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Revenue at Luca Mining Corp. is growing +47.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +59.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Earnings per share at Luca Mining Corp. are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) carry?
The net debt of Luca Mining Corp. is $6.8M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026