Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Luca Mining Corp. C$0.90, price C$1.11, upside -18.8%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.2200 – C$6.40 · fair‑value band C$0.7225 – C$1.15 · the C$1.11 price screens above the C$0.9010 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Luca Mining Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in North America. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, concentrate, lead, and copper deposits, as well as base and precious metals.
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Luca Mining Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in North America. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, concentrate, lead, and copper deposits, as well as base and precious metals. It holds 100% interest in the Campo Morado mine that consists of six mining concessions covering an area of approximately 12,090 hectares located in Guerrero state, Mexico; and 100 % interest the Tahuehueto covering an area of approximately 7,492 hectares located in Durango State, Mexico. The company was formerly known as Altaley Mining Corporation and changed its name to Luca Mining Corp. in March 2023. Luca Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) currently trades at C$1.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.9010, implying the stock looks roughly 23.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$1.39 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$1.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.1400, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.7225 (bear) to C$1.15 (bull), the price of C$1.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Luca Mining Corp. reported revenue of $177M in FY2025 versus $54.7M in FY2021, a compound +34.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$299M (≈ $212M) · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0800 · Net margin −11.9% · Return on equity −17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% · Operating margin 29.2% · Revenue (TTM) $193M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −19%, LUCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.7225Fair Value C$0.9010Bull C$1.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+102.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
36.6% (2021) → 14.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+21.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.2% a year for the price and +18.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Below median
Fair Value upside−19% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.9010 versus a price of C$1.11, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LUCA?
Our model-based fair value for Luca Mining Corp. is C$0.9010 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.11.
What is the quality score of LUCA?
Luca Mining Corp. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.9010 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.7225, optimistic scenario C$1.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luca Mining Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.9010, about −19% upside versus a price of C$1.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.7225, optimistic scenario C$1.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Luca Mining Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Luca Mining Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +34.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUCA use?
Our models discount Luca Mining Corp. at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.87, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Luca Mining Corp. that is +20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Luca Mining Corp. grew +34.1 % a year. The price currently implies +20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Luca Mining Corp. (+20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.83 %: that much free cash flow Luca Mining Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luca Mining Corp. it is C$0.9010 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$1.11. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Luca Mining Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LUCA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$1.11, fair value C$0.9010, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.9010). For Luca Mining Corp. the two are C$0.2090 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luca Mining Corp. worth?
The market values Luca Mining Corp. at about C$299M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$1.11; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.9010 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUCA?
Our models span a range for Luca Mining Corp.: cautious scenario C$0.7225, base C$0.9010, optimistic C$1.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$1.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luca Mining Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −17.9%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUCA from its 52-week high?
Luca Mining Corp. trades at C$1.11, about 46% below its 52-week high of C$2.05 and 37% above the low of C$0.8100 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.9010 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luca Mining Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luca Mining Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$1.11, calculated fair value C$0.9010 (−19%), Quality Score 35/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUCA calculated?
We run Luca Mining Corp. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.9010, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Luca Mining Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was C$1.11. Our model-based fair value is C$0.9010, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luca Mining Corp. right now?
Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Luca Mining Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The market capitalisation of Luca Mining Corp. is C$299M (≈ $212M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luca Mining Corp. is 1.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Earnings per share at Luca Mining Corp. are C$−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The net margin of Luca Mining Corp. is −11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luca Mining Corp. is −17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luca Mining Corp. is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
The operating margin of Luca Mining Corp. is 29.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Revenue at Luca Mining Corp. is growing +39.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +59.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA)?
Earnings per share at Luca Mining Corp. are growing +104% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Luca Mining Corp. (LUCA) carry?
The net debt of Luca Mining Corp. is $6.8M (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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