Luca Mining Corp (LUCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$317M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −2.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 11% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (C$0.5865 to C$1.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from C$0.5865 (bear) to C$1.37 (bull), base C$1.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 35/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.2200 – C$6.40 · fair‑value band C$0.5865 – C$1.37 · the C$0.9500 price screens below the C$1.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Luca Mining Corp (LUCA) currently trades at C$0.9500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$1.05, implying the stock looks roughly 11.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Luca Mining Corp generated revenue of C$193M at a net margin of -6.7%. Revenue grew 39.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.9%. Net debt stands at C$6.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.5865 (bear case) to C$1.37 (bull case); at C$0.9500, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 11%, LUCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$1.47) versus Asset-Based (C$0.1400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 3
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Luca Mining Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in North America. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, concentrate, lead, and copper deposits, as well as base and precious metals.
Full company description
Luca Mining Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral resource properties in North America. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, concentrate, lead, and copper deposits, as well as base and precious metals. It holds 100% interest in the Campo Morado mine that consists of six mining concessions covering an area of approximately 12,090 hectares located in Guerrero state, Mexico; and 100 % interest the Tahuehueto covering an area of approximately 7,492 hectares located in Durango State, Mexico. The company was formerly known as Altaley Mining Corporation and changed its name to Luca Mining Corp. in March 2023. Luca Mining Corp. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Luca Mining Corp reported revenue of C$177M in FY2025 versus C$54.7M in FY2021, a compound +34.1%/yr. Reported net income was −C$21.1M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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