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Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lucara Diamond Corp $0.20, price $0.11, upside +77.8%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Lucara Diamond Corp
LUCRF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $0.2000 · Strongly undervalued (+77.8%)
!Quality 37/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1000 – $0.7000 · fair‑value band $0.1200 – $0.2800 · the $0.1125 price screens below the $0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds.
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Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds. The company was formerly known as Bannockburn Resources Limited and changed its name to Lucara Diamond Corp. in August 2007. Lucara Diamond Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) currently trades at $0.1125, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2000, implying the stock looks roughly 43.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $0.2300 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the $0.1125 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.1400, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1200 (bear) to $0.2800 (bull), the price of $0.1125 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lucara Diamond Corp reported revenue of $162M in FY2025 versus $230M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $26.6M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $164M · P/E ratio 2.3 · P/S ratio 0.37 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 78%, LUCRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1200
Fair Value $0.2000
Bull $0.2800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0378 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$0.1600
$0.1700
$0.1900
71
EPV
n/a
n/a
$0.0200
68
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
$0.0200
68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.1200
$0.1500
$0.1700
67
EPV
n/a
n/a
$0.0200
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.2300
$0.3000
$0.3800
63
P/S Multiple
$0.1200
$0.1600
$0.2000
58
P/B Multiple
$0.2300
$0.3000
$0.3800
55
EV/EBIT
$0.1100
$0.1900
$0.2700
64
EV/EBITDA
$0.1100
$0.1900
$0.2700
65
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.0300
$0.0800
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1100
$0.1400
$0.2100
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.1600
$0.1700
$0.1900
71
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
$0.0200
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.1600
$0.2300
$0.3000
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
37/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs −11.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,240 IDR | 878.20 IDR | −79% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $17.00 | $16.30 | −4% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $32.05 | $26.98 | −16% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.19 | $14.83 | +46% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$39.53 | C$43.48 | +10% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$40.20 | C$15.84 | −61% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.19 | $32.48 | +1% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | $21.82 | $6.07 | −72% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥18.02 | ¥13.23 | −27% |
| Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company 1322 | 70.50 SAR | 77.55 SAR | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2000 versus a price of $0.1125, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUCRF?
Our model-based fair value for Lucara Diamond Corp is $0.2000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1125.
What is the quality score of LUCRF?
Lucara Diamond Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.2800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucara Diamond Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2000, about +78% upside versus a price of $0.1125 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1200, optimistic scenario $0.2800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Lucara Diamond Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $151M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lucara Diamond Corp pay a dividend?
Lucara Diamond Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucara Diamond Corp it is $0.2000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1125. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lucara Diamond Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LUCRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1125, fair value $0.2000, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUCRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1125); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2000). For Lucara Diamond Corp the two are $0.0875 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucara Diamond Corp worth?
The market values Lucara Diamond Corp at about $164M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1125; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUCRF?
Our models span a range for Lucara Diamond Corp: cautious scenario $0.1200, base $0.2000, optimistic $0.2800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1125). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LUCRF?
Lucara Diamond Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2000 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucara Diamond Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUCRF from its 52-week high?
Lucara Diamond Corp trades at $0.1125, about 46% below its 52-week high of $0.2100 and 13% above the low of $0.1000 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucara Diamond Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucara Diamond Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1125, calculated fair value $0.2000 (+78%), Quality Score 37/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUCRF calculated?
We run Lucara Diamond Corp through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lucara Diamond Corp currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1125. Our model-based fair value is $0.2000, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucara Diamond Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1200). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1200 to $0.2800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp grew −8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.8 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate +6.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lucara Diamond Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The market capitalisation of Lucara Diamond Corp is $164M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucara Diamond Corp is 0.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The dividend yield of Lucara Diamond Corp is 0.1% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The net margin of Lucara Diamond Corp is 16.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lucara Diamond Corp is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucara Diamond Corp is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
The operating margin of Lucara Diamond Corp is −46.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Revenue at Lucara Diamond Corp is growing −28.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF)?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp are growing −82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Lucara Diamond Corp is −$48.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lucara Diamond Corp (LUCRF) carry?
The net debt of Lucara Diamond Corp is $192M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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