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Data-driven stock valuation

Lydia Holding (LYDHO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lydia Holding stock TRY 13.29, price TRY 36.60, upside -63.7%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · TR

LH Lydia Holding logo Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Lydia Holding

LYDHO · IS

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 64% below what the stock costs today.

Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +275.4 %/yr in TRY)
Fair value 13.29 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−63.7%)
Quality 28/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 24/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

213.70 TRY 3.05 TRY Fair Value 13.29 TRY Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 3.05 TRY – 213.70 TRY · fair‑value band 9.96 TRY – 16.60 TRY · the 36.60 TRY price screens above the 13.29 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Lydia Holding A.S., together with its subsidiaries, invests in the energy, technology, sustainability, logistics, and media businesses in Tukey. The company provides valuation and processing of underground and aboveground resources.

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It is also involved in the activities in the field of technology; management of resources; and provision of logistics solutions and access to information.

In addition, the company engages in the production, packaging, and packing of fresh vegetables and fruits, as well as fresh or dried products, semi-finished products, and raw and auxiliary materials related to such products; establishment, operation, leasing, and sale of electricity production facilities and other energy production facilities generating from renewable energy sources and other sources; engineering, project development, and consulting activities; and investment, buying and selling trade, import, and export in various sectors.

Further, it operates electricity storage units and storage-based electricity generation facilities; storage and sales activities; and provides passenger air transport and aircraft leasing services.

The company was formerly known as Milpa Ticari ve Sinai Ürünler Pazarlama Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Lydia Holding A.S. in July 2024. Lydia Holding A.S. was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Stock analysis

Lydia Holding (LYDHO) currently trades at 36.60 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.29 TRY, 63.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 10 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 9.96 TRY (bear) to 16.60 TRY (bull), the price of 36.60 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lydia Holding reported revenue of 63.5M TRY in FY2025 versus 1.8M TRY in FY2021, a compound +145.0%/yr. Reported net income was 386M TRY in FY2025, compounding +51.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 12.9B TRY (≈ $260M) Micro · EPS (TTM) −0.8600 TRY · Return on equity −10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.8% · Operating margin −647% · Revenue (TTM) 58.2M TRY · Revenue growth (YoY) −18.4% · Free cash flow −683M TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 83% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −64%, LYDHO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 9.96 TRY Fair Value 13.29 TRY Bull 16.60 TRY
Price 36.60 TRY · Upside -63.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple 11.72 TRY 15.63 TRY 19.53 TRY 55
NCAV (Graham) 3.16 TRY 4.78 TRY 5.98 TRY 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple 11.72 TRY 15.63 TRY 19.53 TRY 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.16 TRY 4.78 TRY 5.98 TRY 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 80
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 3
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+275.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+34.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3,165% → −166%

LYDHO screens overvalued: fair value 64% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 353 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −63.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 6.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −18.4% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.99× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 31.4× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $55.58 $78.34 +41% vs LYDHO
Honeywell International Inc HON $207.29 $244.82 +18% vs LYDHO
thyssenkrupp AG TKA €14.35 €15.69 +9% vs LYDHO
Kingdom Holding 4280 13.82 SAR 13.40 SAR −3% vs LYDHO
Koç Holding KCHOL 212.50 TRY 182.26 TRY −14% vs LYDHO
Aker ASA AKER kr 1,360 kr 1,017 −25% vs LYDHO
SK Inc 034730 540,000 KRW 348,688 KRW −35% vs LYDHO
3M Company MMM $164.46 $72.78 −56% vs LYDHO
Keppel Ltd BN4 10.42 SGD 3.88 SGD −63% vs LYDHO
Swire Pacific Limited 0019 HK$102.60 HK$28.34 −72% vs LYDHO

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Lydia Holding · Fair Value
13.29 TRY −64%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lydia Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYDHO

Frequently asked questions

Is Lydia Holding (LYDHO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.29 TRY versus a price of 36.60 TRY, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LYDHO?
Our model-based fair value for Lydia Holding is 13.29 TRY (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 36.60 TRY.
What is the quality score of LYDHO?
Lydia Holding has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.29 TRY (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 9.96 TRY, optimistic scenario 16.60 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lydia Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.29 TRY, about −64% upside versus a price of 36.60 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 9.96 TRY, optimistic scenario 16.60 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Lydia Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 58.2M TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lydia Holding it is 13.29 TRY per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 36.60 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lydia Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, LYDHO trades above its calculated fair value: price 36.60 TRY, fair value 13.29 TRY, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYDHO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (36.60 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.29 TRY). For Lydia Holding the two are 23.31 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lydia Holding worth?
The market values Lydia Holding at about 12.9B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 36.60 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 13.29 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYDHO?
Our models span a range for Lydia Holding: cautious scenario 9.96 TRY, base 13.29 TRY, optimistic 16.60 TRY per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 36.60 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lydia Holding (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −10.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYDHO from its 52-week high?
Lydia Holding trades at 36.60 TRY, about 83% below its 52-week high of 213.70 TRY and at the low of 36.52 TRY (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.29 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lydia Holding?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SK Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lydia Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 36.60 TRY, calculated fair value 13.29 TRY (−64%), Quality Score 28/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYDHO calculated?
We run Lydia Holding through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 13.29 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Lydia Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was 36.60 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 13.29 TRY, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lydia Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (16.60 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Lydia Holding

How large is the market capitalisation of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
The market capitalisation of Lydia Holding is 12.9B TRY (≈ $260M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Earnings per share at Lydia Holding are −0.8600 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lydia Holding is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lydia Holding is −1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
The operating margin of Lydia Holding is −647% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lydia Holding (LYDHO)?
Revenue at Lydia Holding is growing −18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +66.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lydia Holding (LYDHO) generate?
The free cash flow of Lydia Holding is −683M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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