MSCI Inc (M1SC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MSCI Inc BRL 25.25, price BRL 64.02, upside -60.6%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$41.89 – R$85.69 · fair‑value band R$14.02 – R$35.87 · the R$64.02 price screens above the R$25.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes, supported by advanced technology worldwide.
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MSCI Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides research-based data, analytics, and indexes, supported by advanced technology worldwide. The Index segment provides indexes for use in various areas of the investment process, including indexed financial products, such as ETFs, mutual funds, annuities, futures, options, structured products, and over-the-counter derivatives; performance benchmarking; portfolio construction and rebalancing; and asset allocation, as well as licenses GICS and GICS Direct. The Analytics segment offers risk management, performance attribution and portfolio management content, application, an integrated view of risk and return service, and an analysis of market, credit, liquidity, counterparty, and climate risk across asset classes; managed services, including consolidation of client portfolio data, review and reconciliation of input data and results, and customized reporting; and HedgePlatform to measure, evaluate, and monitor the risk of hedge fund investments. The Sustainability and Climate segment provides products and services that help institutional investors understand how ESG impacts the long-term risk and return of their portfolio and individual security-level investments; and data, ratings, research, and tools to assist investors navigate increasing regulation. The All Other " Private Assets segment comprises private credit, real estate and infrastructure data, benchmarks, return-analytics, climate assessments and market insights; business intelligence to real estate owners, managers, developers, and brokers; and offers investment decision support tools for private capital. The Private Capital Solutions segment offers tools to help private asset investors across mission-critical workflows, such as sourcing terms and conditions, evaluating operating performance, managing risk and other activities supporting private capital investment. MSCI Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
MSCI Inc (M1SC34) currently trades at R$64.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$25.25, 60.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$31.45 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the R$64.02 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$13.81, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$14.02 (bear) to R$35.87 (bull), the price of R$64.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MSCI Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$210B (≈ $40.2B) · P/E ratio 31.1 · P/S ratio 11.9 · EPS (TTM) R$2.06 · Dividend yield 11.6% · Net margin 38.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.4% · Operating margin 53.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −61%, M1SC34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$14.02Fair Value R$25.25Bull R$35.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+29.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 55%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MSCI Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M1SC34
Frequently asked questions
Is MSCI Inc (M1SC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$25.25 versus a price of R$64.02, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M1SC34?
Our model-based fair value for MSCI Inc is R$25.25 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$64.02.
What is the quality score of M1SC34?
MSCI Inc has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$25.25 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$14.02, optimistic scenario R$35.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MSCI Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$25.25, about −61% upside versus a price of R$64.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$14.02, optimistic scenario R$35.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
MSCI Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does MSCI Inc pay a dividend?
MSCI Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MSCI Inc it is R$25.25 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$64.02. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MSCI Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, M1SC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$64.02, fair value R$25.25, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M1SC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$64.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$25.25). For MSCI Inc the two are R$38.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MSCI Inc worth?
The market values MSCI Inc at about R$210B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$64.02; our models calculate a fair value of R$25.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M1SC34?
Our models span a range for MSCI Inc: cautious scenario R$14.02, base R$25.25, optimistic R$35.87 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$64.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is M1SC34 from its 52-week high?
MSCI Inc trades at R$64.02, about 14% below its 52-week high of R$74.67 and 7% above the low of R$60.03 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$25.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MSCI Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MSCI Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$64.02, calculated fair value R$25.25 (−61%), Quality Score 84/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M1SC34 calculated?
We run MSCI Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$25.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MSCI Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$64.02. Our model-based fair value is R$25.25, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MSCI Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$35.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (R$14.02 to R$35.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of MSCI Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The market capitalisation of MSCI Inc is R$210B (≈ $40.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of MSCI Inc is 31.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MSCI Inc is 11.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are R$2.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The dividend yield of MSCI Inc is 11.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The net margin of MSCI Inc is 38.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MSCI Inc is 25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
The operating margin of MSCI Inc is 53.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
Revenue at MSCI Inc is growing +14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MSCI Inc (M1SC34)?
Earnings per share at MSCI Inc are growing +49.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MSCI Inc (M1SC34) generate?
The free cash flow of MSCI Inc is $1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MSCI Inc (M1SC34) carry?
The net debt of MSCI Inc is $5.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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