Matson, Inc (MATX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.4B
Matson, Inc
MATX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $176.93 to $177.60 (+0.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($100.20 to $312.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.67 – $223.55 · fair‑value band $100.20 – $312.33 · the $206.77 price screens above the $177.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Matson, Inc (MATX) currently trades at $206.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.60, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Matson, Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 12.9%. Revenue declined 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. Net debt stands at $585M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $100.20 (bear case) to $312.33 (bull case); at $206.77, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 140% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at -14%, MATX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($261.80) versus Dividend Discount ($20.05). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. It operates through two segments, Ocean Transportation and Logistics.
Full company description
Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. It operates through two segments, Ocean Transportation and Logistics. The company offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska and Guam, and to other island economies in Micronesia; and transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, food products, beverages, building materials, automobiles, household goods, livestock, seafood, general sustenance cargo, e-commerce related goods, garments, consumer electronics, footwear, retail merchandise, and other merchandise. It also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides stevedoring, refrigerated cargo, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska terminal locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company provides multimodal transportation brokerage of domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload (LCL), and expedited freight services; LCL consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing, trans-loading, value-added packaging and distribution services; purchase order management, booking services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. It serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders and non-vessel owning common carriers, retailers and consumer goods manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Matson, Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $445M in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
MATX screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Matson (MATX) Upgraded to Strong Buy: Here's Why
- Wall Street Analysts Believe Matson (MATX) Could Rally 27.33%: Here's is How to Trade
- Matson profit surges 30% on China shipping demand
- Matson, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.35 | ¥5.58 | +67% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.88 | ¥15.97 | +80% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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