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Data-driven stock valuation

Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.5B · ISIN US5768752074

At a glance

MS Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR logo Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR MAUSY · US
Price$13.88
Fair Value$9.97
Upside−28.1%
Quality69/100

A solid business, but trading 39% above our fair value of $9.97.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR is $9.97 per share against a price of $13.88, so the fair value sits 28% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.7 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 30.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
·4.96% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 73/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $7.48 to $12.47

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $10.09 to $9.97 (−1.2%) since Aug 15, 2026. Share price +3.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$14.87 $8.74 Fair Value $9.97 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.74 – $14.87 · fair‑value band $7.48 – $12.47 · the $13.88 price screens above the $9.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY) currently trades at $13.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.97, implying the stock looks roughly 39.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥22.6B at a net margin of 30.5%. Revenue grew 60.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.2%. Net debt stands at ¥264B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $7.48 (bear) to $12.47 (bull), the price of $13.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −28%, MAUSY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple $409.36 $545.81 $682.26 55
NCAV (Graham) $321.06 $430.22 $642.13 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $409.36 $545.81 $682.26 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $321.06 $430.22 $642.13 54

Widest divergence: Multiples ($545.81) versus Asset-Based ($430.22). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.5
P/S ratio 5.44 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.7500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.5
Dividend yield 5.0% payout 91.8%
Net margin 29.4% FY2026
Return on equity 17.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 49.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥22.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +60.4% 3y avg +21.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +118%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥115B FY2026
Net debt ¥264B FY2026 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. provides online securities brokerage services to retail investors in Japan. The company offers brokerage services of stocks, futures, and options; services for underwriting, offering, and secondary distribution and solicitation for selling; and foreign exchange margin trading services.

Full company description

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. provides online securities brokerage services to retail investors in Japan. The company offers brokerage services of stocks, futures, and options; services for underwriting, offering, and secondary distribution and solicitation for selling; and foreign exchange margin trading services. It also engages in the investment trusts, wholesale business, asset management, and crypto asset-related businesses. Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥55.8B in FY2026 versus ¥33.3B in FY2022, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.4B in FY2026, compounding +9.4%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$55.8B
Latest YoY
+42.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +31.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+26.0%
Dividend yield5.0%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 26.0% vs 10Y 8.3%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36.7% (2020) → 38.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop53% (2020) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2026 sits 235% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +13.8%/yr
FY22 ¥33.3B
FY23 ¥31.1B
FY24 ¥36.9B
FY25 ¥39.2B
FY26 ¥55.8B
Net income +9.4%/yr
FY22 ¥11.4B
FY23 ¥7.8B
FY24 ¥9.8B
FY25 ¥10.5B
FY26 ¥16.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +0.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.1 %

of which total revenue +3.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %

EBIT margin −4.4 %
Tax rate +0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

MAUSY screens 39% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MAUSY

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 457 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 60% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.0% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.5× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-15.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+11.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.1 %
FCF yield on price20.99 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 13
FUTURE100 · sector 91
PAST69 · sector 30
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND99 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $217.72 $138.97 −36%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $1,039 $756.89 −27%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $110.16 $66.17 −40%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $104.26 $30.94 −70%
Macquarie Group MQG A$251.87 A$75.58 −70%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥27.93 ¥17.68 −37%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.87 ¥18.62 +4%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥19.42 ¥4.77 −75%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥25.78 ¥14.17 −45%
Huatai Securities Co 601688 ¥19.56 ¥19.26 −2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.97 versus a price of $13.88, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MAUSY?
Our model-based fair value for Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR is $9.97 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.88.
What is the quality score of MAUSY?
Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.97 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.48, optimistic scenario $12.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.97, about −28% upside versus a price of $13.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.48, optimistic scenario $12.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY)?
Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥22.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MAUSY?
The net profit margin of Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR is about 30.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR (MAUSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -15.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MAUSY use?
Our models discount Matsui Securities Co Ltd ADR at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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