Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock €15.93, price €25.49, upside -37.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.55 – €29.05 · fair‑value band €11.65 – €21.11 · the €25.49 price screens above the €15.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy, Other European countries, the United States, Asia, and internationally.
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It operates through Wealth Management, Consumer Finance, Corporate and Investment Banking, Insurance - Principal Investing, and Holding Functions segments. The Wealth Management segment offers portfolio management, asset management, and management services to private banking and premier customers.
Its Consumer Finance segment provides a range of consumer credit products, including personal and special-purpose loans, salary-or pension-backed finances, and credit cards, as well as Pagolight, a buy-now-pay-later solution.
The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers lending, capital market, advisory, and trading services; and specialty finance services, such as factoring and credit management services. Its Insurance - Principal Investing segment engages in equity investment and holding activities.
The Holding Functions segment is involved in treasury, and asset and liability management operations. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.
Stock analysis
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) currently trades at €25.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €15.93, 37.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €16.52 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €25.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €8.65, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €11.65 (bear) to €21.11 (bull), the price of €25.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A reported revenue of €2.6B in FY2026 versus €2.5B in FY2022, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0B in FY2026, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €20.6B Large · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 7.55 · EPS (TTM) €1.50 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 39.1% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −38%, MB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€11.65Fair Value €15.93Bull€21.11
Price €25.49 · Upside -37.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0913 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−26.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.4% vs 6.2%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 35%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+45.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.7% a year for the price and +42.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate profitability stands as the main strength while the absence of a clear durable moat in a competitive regional banking sector forms the primary weakness.
Main risk: The merger integration risks diluting the distinct corporate and investment focus and would hit specialized banking operations.
Mediobanca's shareholders will vote on merging into Monte dei Paschi at the end of October. Proxy advisor ISS backs the plan for its strategic logic and potential synergies, even amid Intesa's competing bid for MPS. Our models see the bank as overvalued. Will the integration strengthen its position in Italian banking or dilute its distinct corporate and investment focus?
Compare Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1061 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)39.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)53.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.80× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.55× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow8.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA34.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.02× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)76· sector 50
PAST (return on equity)46· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)96· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MB.MI
Frequently asked questions
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €15.93 versus a price of €25.49, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MB?
Our model-based fair value for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is €15.93 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.49.
What is the quality score of MB?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €15.93 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.65, optimistic scenario €21.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €15.93, about −38% upside versus a price of €25.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €11.65, optimistic scenario €21.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A pay a dividend?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of 4.79% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MB use?
Our models discount Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.99 %: that much free cash flow Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A it is €15.93 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of €25.49. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, MB trades above its calculated fair value: price €25.49, fair value €15.93, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€15.93). For Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A the two are €9.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A worth?
The market values Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A at about €20.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is €25.49; our models calculate a fair value of €15.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MB?
Our models span a range for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A: cautious scenario €11.65, base €15.93, optimistic €21.11 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price €25.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MB?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €15.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.8, P/S 7.5, EV/EBITDA 34.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MB?
The PEG ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 2.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MB from its 52-week high?
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A trades at €25.49, about 12% below its 52-week high of €29.05 and 71% above the low of €14.92 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €15.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price €25.49, calculated fair value €15.93 (−38%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MB calculated?
We run Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €15.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €25.49. Our model-based fair value is €15.93, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€21.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€11.65 to €21.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A grew +7.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The market capitalisation of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is €20.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 7.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Earnings per share at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A are €1.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The dividend yield of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 4.8% (payout 81.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The net margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 39.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
The operating margin of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is 53.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Revenue at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB)?
Earnings per share at Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A are growing +15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A (MB) carry?
The net debt of Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A is €37.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026