mBank SA (MBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what mBank SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 180.60 PLN – 1,516 PLN · fair‑value band 547.81 PLN – 1,071 PLN · the 1,516 PLN price screens above the 755.47 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits.
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mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits. It also provides debit and credit cards; cash, car, secured, and corporate and personal loans, as well as mortgages; pension, insurance, and stock exchange products; and transaction and mobile banking services. In addition, the company offers wealth management services, including portfolio management, investment advisory, investment funds, financial dealer, private broker, and other investment services, as well as succession services. Further, it provides currency exchange and hedging transactions, and forex forward services, as well as treasury and non-treasury bonds, and Eurobonds. Additionally, the company offers leasing, factoring, brokerage, payment gateway, and corporate finance services. The company was formerly known as BRE Bank S.A. and changed its name to mBank S.A. in November 2013. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. mBank S.A. is a subsidiary of Commerzbank AG.
Stock analysis
mBank SA (MBK) currently trades at 1,516 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 755.47 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 100.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 766.06 PLN per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 1,516 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 82.49 PLN, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 547.81 PLN (bear) to 1,071 PLN (bull), the price of 1,516 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
mBank SA reported revenue of 12.6B PLN in FY2025 versus 6.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 64.5B PLN (≈ $17.0B) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 4.79 · EPS (TTM) 89.04 PLN · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −50%, MBK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (82.49 PLN to 1,083 PLN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 547.81 PLNFair Value 755.47 PLNBull 1,071 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (64.65 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +36.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45% vs 11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 40%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 213% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.73× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.29× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF5.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.50× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)21· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)54· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "mBank SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBK
Frequently asked questions
Is mBank SA (MBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 755.47 PLN versus a price of 1,516 PLN, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBK?
Our model-based fair value for mBank SA is 755.47 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,516 PLN.
What is the quality score of MBK?
mBank SA has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for mBank SA (MBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 755.47 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 547.81 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,071 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the mBank SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 755.47 PLN, about −50% upside versus a price of 1,516 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 547.81 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,071 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of mBank SA (MBK)?
mBank SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does mBank SA pay a dividend?
mBank SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into mBank SA (MBK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, mBank SA would have to grow free cash flow by -6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.6 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MBK use?
Our models discount mBank SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For mBank SA that is -6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has mBank SA (MBK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at mBank SA grew +18.6 % a year. The price currently implies -6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of mBank SA (MBK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into mBank SA (-6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of mBank SA (MBK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.76 %: that much free cash flow mBank SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of mBank SA (MBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For mBank SA it is 755.47 PLN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 1,516 PLN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is mBank SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, MBK trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,516 PLN, fair value 755.47 PLN, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,516 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (755.47 PLN). For mBank SA the two are 760.53 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is mBank SA worth?
The market values mBank SA at about 64.5B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 1,516 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 755.47 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBK?
Our models span a range for mBank SA: cautious scenario 547.81 PLN, base 755.47 PLN, optimistic 1,071 PLN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 1,516 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBK?
mBank SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 755.47 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.7, P/S 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MBK?
The PEG ratio of mBank SA is 0.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of mBank SA (MBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for mBank SA (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBK from its 52-week high?
mBank SA trades at 1,516 PLN, about 17% below its 52-week high of 1,297 PLN and 109% above the low of 725.20 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 755.47 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to mBank SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is mBank SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 1,516 PLN, calculated fair value 755.47 PLN (−50%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBK calculated?
We run mBank SA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 755.47 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. mBank SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of mBank SA (MBK)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 1,516 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 755.47 PLN, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with mBank SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,071 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (547.81 PLN to 1,071 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of mBank SA (MBK) come from?
Earnings per share at mBank SA grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of mBank SA
How large is the market capitalisation of mBank SA (MBK)?
The market capitalisation of mBank SA is 64.5B PLN (≈ $17.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of mBank SA (MBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of mBank SA is 4.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of mBank SA (MBK)?
Earnings per share at mBank SA are 89.04 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of mBank SA (MBK)?
The dividend yield of mBank SA is 0.4% (payout 6.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of mBank SA (MBK)?
The net margin of mBank SA is 28.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of mBank SA (MBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of mBank SA is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of mBank SA (MBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of mBank SA is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of mBank SA (MBK)?
The operating margin of mBank SA is 52.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at mBank SA (MBK)?
Revenue at mBank SA is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at mBank SA (MBK)?
Earnings per share at mBank SA are growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does mBank SA (MBK) hold?
mBank SA holds more cash than debt, 18.8B PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 18, 2026