mBank S.A (MBK) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 58.1B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +2.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,354 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 180.60 PLN – 1,457 PLN · fair‑value band 812.44 PLN – 1,354 PLN · the 1,437 PLN price screens above the 1,083 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
mBank S.A (MBK) currently trades at 1,437 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,083 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 24.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, mBank S.A generated revenue of 12.1B PLN at a net margin of 31.3%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 18.8B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 812.44 PLN (bear case) to 1,354 PLN (bull case); at 1,437 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -25%, MBK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (2,472 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (82.49 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits.
Full company description
mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services. It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits. It also provides debit and credit cards; cash, car, secured, and corporate and personal loans, as well as mortgages; pension, insurance, and stock exchange products; and transaction and mobile banking services. In addition, the company offers wealth management services, including portfolio management, investment advisory, investment funds, financial dealer, private broker, and other investment services, as well as succession services. Further, it provides currency exchange and hedging transactions, and forex forward services, as well as treasury and non-treasury bonds, and Eurobonds. Additionally, the company offers leasing, factoring, brokerage, payment gateway, and corporate finance services. The company was formerly known as BRE Bank S.A. and changed its name to mBank S.A. in November 2013. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. mBank S.A. is a subsidiary of Commerzbank AG.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
mBank S.A reported revenue of 12.6B PLN in FY2025 versus 6.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B PLN in FY2025.
MBK screens 25% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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