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Data-driven stock valuation

mBank SA (MBK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of mBank SA stock PLN 855, price PLN 1,634, that is 47.7% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services PL · ISIN PLBRE0000012

MS mBank SA logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

mBank SA

MBK · WAR
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 62/100
Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin (TTM)
Profit last quarter +30% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.6 %/yr in PLN)
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Wide moat 72/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value 854.57 PLN · Strongly overvalued (−47.7%)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩CHF mortgage lawsuits could require further provisions🚩KNF fines for compliance and security lapses
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

1,668 PLN 180.60 PLN Fair Value 854.57 PLN Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 180.60 PLN – 1,668 PLN · fair‑value band 640.93 PLN – 1,068 PLN · the 1,634 PLN price screens above the 854.57 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

mBank S.A. provides various banking and financial services in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and internationally. The company provides retail, SME, corporate, and investment banking services.

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It offers banking services, such as personal, savings, currency, investment, and business accounts, as well as various deposits.

It also provides debit and credit cards; cash, car, secured, and corporate and personal loans, as well as mortgages; pension, insurance, and stock exchange products; and transaction and mobile banking services.

In addition, the company offers wealth management services, including portfolio management, investment advisory, investment funds, financial dealer, private broker, and other investment services, as well as succession services.

Further, it provides currency exchange and hedging transactions, and forex forward services, as well as treasury and non-treasury bonds, and Eurobonds. Additionally, the company offers leasing, factoring, brokerage, payment gateway, and corporate finance services.

The company was formerly known as BRE Bank S.A. and changed its name to mBank S.A. in November 2013. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. mBank S.A. is a subsidiary of Commerzbank AG.

Stock analysis

mBank SA (MBK) currently trades at 1,634 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 854.57 PLN, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 713.56 PLN per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the 1,634 PLN price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 301.72 PLN, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 640.93 PLN (bear) to 1,068 PLN (bull), the price of 1,634 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

mBank SA reported revenue of 12.6B PLN in FY2025 versus 6.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 69.6B PLN (≈ $17.7B) Large · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 5.73 · EPS (TTM) 97.24 PLN · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% · Operating margin 57.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −48%, MBK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 640.93 PLN Fair Value 854.57 PLN Bull 1,068 PLN
Price 1,634 PLN · Downside -47.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (82.59 PLN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 538.03 PLN 713.56 PLN 1,147 PLN 68
P/E Multiple 812.01 PLN 1,083 PLN 1,353 PLN 63
P/B Multiple 469.84 PLN 626.45 PLN 783.07 PLN 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple 812.01 PLN 1,083 PLN 1,353 PLN 63
P/B Multiple 469.84 PLN 626.45 PLN 783.07 PLN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 225.17 PLN 301.72 PLN 450.33 PLN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 538.03 PLN 713.56 PLN 1,147 PLN 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 39
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 78
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 57
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 42
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 73
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 79
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 98
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +36.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +36.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 44.7% / 10.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 40%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 25.1 per share, median 64.4 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 213% above its own trend.

MBK screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −47.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 18.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 34.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 57.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 3.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.93× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 16.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 3.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.73× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 22.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.50× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)18 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)72 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)54 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs MBK
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs MBK
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs MBK
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs MBK
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs MBK
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 27.73 SGD 18.20 SGD −34% vs MBK
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.39 $5.90 −37% vs MBK
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs MBK
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs MBK
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs MBK

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mBank SA: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "mBank SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MBK

Frequently asked questions

Is mBank SA (MBK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 854.57 PLN versus a price of 1,634 PLN, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MBK?
Our model-based fair value for mBank SA is 854.57 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,634 PLN.
What is the quality score of MBK?
mBank SA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for mBank SA (MBK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 854.57 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 640.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,068 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the mBank SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 854.57 PLN, about 48% lower versus a price of 1,634 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 640.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,068 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of mBank SA (MBK)?
mBank SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.1B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of mBank SA (MBK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For mBank SA it is 854.57 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 1,634 PLN. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is mBank SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, MBK trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,634 PLN, fair value 854.57 PLN, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MBK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,634 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (854.57 PLN). For mBank SA the two are 779.43 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is mBank SA worth?
The market values mBank SA at about 69.6B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 1,634 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 854.57 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MBK?
Our models span a range for mBank SA: cautious scenario 640.93 PLN, base 854.57 PLN, optimistic 1,068 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 1,634 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MBK?
mBank SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 854.57 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 3.3, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MBK?
The PEG ratio of mBank SA is 0.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of mBank SA (MBK)?
Balance-sheet figures for mBank SA (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MBK from its 52-week high?
mBank SA trades at 1,634 PLN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 1,668 PLN and 74% above the low of 936.80 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 854.57 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to mBank SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is mBank SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 1,634 PLN, calculated fair value 854.57 PLN (−48%), Quality Score 62/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MBK calculated?
We run mBank SA through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 854.57 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. mBank SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of mBank SA (MBK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 1,634 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 854.57 PLN, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with mBank SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,068 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of mBank SA (MBK) come from?
Earnings per share at mBank SA grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.7 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of mBank SA

How large is the market capitalisation of mBank SA (MBK)?
The market capitalisation of mBank SA is 69.6B PLN (≈ $17.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of mBank SA (MBK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of mBank SA is 5.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of mBank SA (MBK)?
Earnings per share at mBank SA are 97.24 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of mBank SA (MBK)?
The net margin of mBank SA is 34.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of mBank SA (MBK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of mBank SA is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of mBank SA (MBK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of mBank SA is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of mBank SA (MBK)?
The operating margin of mBank SA is 57.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at mBank SA (MBK)?
Revenue at mBank SA is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at mBank SA (MBK)?
Earnings per share at mBank SA are growing +29.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does mBank SA (MBK) generate?
The free cash flow of mBank SA is 3.1B PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does mBank SA (MBK) hold?
mBank SA holds more cash than debt, 18.8B PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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