MCH Group AG (MCHN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of MCH Group AG CHF 11.54, price CHF 6.54, upside +76.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 2.99 – CHF 14.81 · fair‑value band CHF 8.75 – CHF 14.52 · the CHF 6.54 price screens below the CHF 11.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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MCH Group AG operates as a live marketing company that provides a network of services in the exhibition and event market worldwide.
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MCH Group AG operates as a live marketing company that provides a network of services in the exhibition and event market worldwide. The company provides community platforms for use in the construction, hospitality, life sciences, and education sectors; and experience marketing solutions to institutions, event organizers, or companies in the fields of business, culture, and sports under the MCH Global, Expomobilia, and MC2 brands. It offers trade fairs, guest events, and event venues, as well as trade fair and conference infrastructures. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
MCH Group AG (MCHN) currently trades at CHF 6.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 11.54, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 11.50 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the CHF 6.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 2.38, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 8.75 (bear) to CHF 14.52 (bull), the price of CHF 6.54 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MCH Group AG reported revenue of CHF 430M in FY2025 versus CHF 190M in FY2021, a compound +22.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 18.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 202M · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) CHF 0.6000 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 118% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at 76%, MCHN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 8.75Fair Value CHF 11.54Bull CHF 14.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.4405 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−35.2% (2020) → 6.3% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 198 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+77% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MCH Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCHN
Frequently asked questions
Is MCH Group AG (MCHN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 11.54 versus a price of CHF 6.54, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MCHN?
Our model-based fair value for MCH Group AG is CHF 11.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 6.54.
What is the quality score of MCHN?
MCH Group AG has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 11.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 8.75, optimistic scenario CHF 14.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MCH Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 11.54, about +76% upside versus a price of CHF 6.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario CHF 8.75, optimistic scenario CHF 14.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
MCH Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 389M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does MCH Group AG pay a dividend?
MCH Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MCH Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by -3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCHN use?
Our models discount MCH Group AG at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MCH Group AG that is -3.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MCH Group AG (MCHN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MCH Group AG grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies -3.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MCH Group AG (MCHN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MCH Group AG (-3.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.07 %: that much free cash flow MCH Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MCH Group AG it is CHF 11.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 6.54. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MCH Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MCHN trades below its calculated fair value: price CHF 6.54, fair value CHF 11.54, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCHN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 6.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 11.54). For MCH Group AG the two are CHF 5.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MCH Group AG worth?
The market values MCH Group AG at about CHF 202M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 6.54; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 11.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCHN?
Our models span a range for MCH Group AG: cautious scenario CHF 8.75, base CHF 11.54, optimistic CHF 14.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 6.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCHN?
MCH Group AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 11.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Balance-sheet figures for MCH Group AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCHN from its 52-week high?
MCH Group AG trades at CHF 6.54, about 2% below its 52-week high of CHF 6.68 and 118% above the low of CHF 3.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 11.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MCH Group AG?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MCH Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 6.54, calculated fair value CHF 11.54 (+76%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCHN calculated?
We run MCH Group AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 11.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. MCH Group AG currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was CHF 6.54. Our model-based fair value is CHF 11.54, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MCH Group AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (CHF 8.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of MCH Group AG (MCHN) come from?
Earnings per share at MCH Group AG grew −25.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −16.0 %, EBIT margin −7.0 %, tax rate −5.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MCH Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The market capitalisation of MCH Group AG is CHF 202M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MCH Group AG is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Earnings per share at MCH Group AG are CHF 0.6000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The dividend yield of MCH Group AG is 0.1% (payout 1.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The net margin of MCH Group AG is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MCH Group AG is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MCH Group AG is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
The operating margin of MCH Group AG is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Revenue at MCH Group AG is growing −6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MCH Group AG (MCHN)?
Earnings per share at MCH Group AG are growing +41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MCH Group AG (MCHN) carry?
The net debt of MCH Group AG is CHF 36.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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