PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk $11.20, price $7.00, upside +60.0%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range $6.47 – $7.00 · fair‑value band $11.13 – $14.06 · the $7.00 price screens below the $11.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, explores for and produces oil and gas in Indonesia, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas; Services; Power; Chemicals; and Trading segments.
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PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, explores for and produces oil and gas in Indonesia, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas; Services; Power; Chemicals; and Trading segments. The company operates an independent power producer in the gas, geothermal, and other renewables sectors, as well as manages a portfolio of onshore and offshore assets in the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It is also involved in copper and gold mining operations in Sumbawa and Nusa Tenggara; and providing operation and maintenance services, and support services for oil and gas activities. The company was formerly known as PT Medco Energi Corporation and changed its name to PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk in 2000. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Pt Medco Daya Abadi Lestari.
Stock analysis
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) currently trades at $7.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.20, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $9.37 per share, and 10 of the 20 models we run sit above the $7.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.37, and 10 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.13 (bear) to $14.06 (bull), the price of $7.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) $0.6100 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, MDCOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.13Fair Value $11.20Bull $14.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4512 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 29%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+75.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +71.6% a year for the price and −1.8% for the forecasts.
Compare PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 297 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Above median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)25.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDCOY
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.20 versus a price of $7.00, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MDCOY?
Our model-based fair value for PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is $11.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.00.
What is the quality score of MDCOY?
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.13, optimistic scenario $14.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.20, about +60% upside versus a price of $7.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.13, optimistic scenario $14.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk pay a dividend?
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +75.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDCOY use?
Our models discount PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk that is +75.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies +75.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (+75.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.23 %: that much free cash flow PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk it is $11.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.00. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDCOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.00, fair value $11.20, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDCOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.20). For PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk the two are $4.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk worth?
The market values PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.00; our models calculate a fair value of $11.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDCOY?
Our models span a range for PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk: cautious scenario $11.13, base $11.20, optimistic $14.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDCOY?
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.0%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.00, calculated fair value $11.20 (+60%), Quality Score 45/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDCOY calculated?
We run PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $7.00. Our model-based fair value is $11.20, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The market capitalisation of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Earnings per share at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk are $0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The dividend yield of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 4.6% (payout 53.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The net margin of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
The operating margin of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Revenue at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY)?
Earnings per share at PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk are growing +288% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MDCOY) carry?
The net debt of PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026