Medley, Inc (MDLYF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medley, Inc stock $9.04, price $16.25, that is 44.4% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range $16.25 – $28.84 · fair‑value band $4.99 – $14.93 · the $16.25 price screens above the $9.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Medley, Inc. operates platforms for recruitment and medical businesses in Japan and the United States. It operates through three segments: Human Resources Platform Business, Medical Platform Business, and New Development Services.
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The company manages JobMedley, a human resource recruitment system for medical and healthcare, and related businesses; JobMedley Academy, an online video nursing training service; Medley, an electronic medical records for hospitals; Mall, a cloud dental business support system; Dentis, a cloud based dental clinic supports system; CLINICS Telemedicine, a telemedicine system for patients and medical institutions; CLINICS, a cloud medical support system; Pharms, pharmacy window support systems; Lalune, a women health consultation application; and Jobley for job board.
It also operates and provides the facility reservation system @link. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Medley, Inc (MDLYF) currently trades at $16.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.04, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $11.87 per share, and 1 of the 9 models we run sit above the $16.25 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.37, and 8 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.99 (bear) to $14.93 (bull), the price of $16.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Medley, Inc reported revenue of ¥36.8B in FY2025 versus ¥10.9B in FY2021, a compound +35.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥975M in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $491M Small · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 20.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −44%, MDLYF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.99Fair Value $9.04Bull$14.93
Price $16.25 · Downside -44.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3387 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.7% a year for the price and +16.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 142 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.7× · Pricier than median
P/B5.31× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.92× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 2
HEALTH (low debt)58· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medley, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDLYF
Frequently asked questions
Is Medley, Inc (MDLYF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.04 versus a price of $16.25, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDLYF?
Our model-based fair value for Medley, Inc is $9.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.25.
What is the quality score of MDLYF?
Medley, Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.99, optimistic scenario $14.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medley, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.04, about 44% lower versus a price of $16.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.99, optimistic scenario $14.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Medley, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥41.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medley, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +19.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.0 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDLYF use?
Our models discount Medley, Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medley, Inc that is +19.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medley, Inc (MDLYF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medley, Inc grew +40.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medley, Inc (MDLYF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medley, Inc (+19.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.81 %: that much free cash flow Medley, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medley, Inc it is $9.04 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $16.25. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Medley, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, MDLYF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.25, fair value $9.04, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDLYF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.04). For Medley, Inc the two are $7.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medley, Inc worth?
The market values Medley, Inc at about $491M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $16.25; our models calculate a fair value of $9.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDLYF?
Our models span a range for Medley, Inc: cautious scenario $4.99, base $9.04, optimistic $14.93 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $16.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDLYF?
Medley, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.7 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medley, Inc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDLYF from its 52-week high?
Medley, Inc trades at $16.25, about 26% below its 52-week high of $21.90 and 20% above the low of $13.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medley, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Tempus AI, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medley, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $16.25, calculated fair value $9.04 (−44%), Quality Score 66/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDLYF calculated?
We run Medley, Inc through 9 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $9.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Medley, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $16.25. Our model-based fair value is $9.04, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medley, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($4.99 to $14.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Medley, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The market capitalisation of Medley, Inc is $491M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medley, Inc is 1.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Earnings per share at Medley, Inc are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The net margin of Medley, Inc is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medley, Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medley, Inc is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
The operating margin of Medley, Inc is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Revenue at Medley, Inc is growing +21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medley, Inc (MDLYF)?
Earnings per share at Medley, Inc are growing +131% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Medley, Inc (MDLYF) carry?
The net debt of Medley, Inc is ¥7.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 12, 2026