Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock IDR 1,693, price IDR 1,200, upside +41.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 355.50 IDR – 1,942 IDR · fair‑value band 989.82 IDR – 2,116 IDR · the 1,200 IDR price screens below the 1,693 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, explores for and produces oil and gas in Indonesia, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the United Kingdom. It operates through Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas; Services; Power; Chemicals; and Trading segments.
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The company operates an independent power producer in the gas, geothermal, and other renewables sectors, as well as manages a portfolio of onshore and offshore assets in the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
It is also involved in copper and gold mining operations in Sumbawa and Nusa Tenggara; and providing operation and maintenance services, and support services for oil and gas activities.
The company was formerly known as PT Medco Energi Corporation and changed its name to PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk in 2000. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk operates as a subsidiary of Pt Medco Daya Abadi Lestari.
Stock analysis
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) currently trades at 1,200 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,693 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 29% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 3,302 IDR per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the 1,200 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 761.82 IDR, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 989.82 IDR (bear) to 2,116 IDR (bull), the price of 1,200 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 31.1T IDR (≈ $1.7B) Small · P/E ratio 5.2 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) 230.89 IDR · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 41%, MEDC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear989.82 IDRFair Value 1,693 IDRBull2,116 IDR
Price 1,200 IDR · Upside +41.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (166.41 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF2,464 IDR5,104 IDR9,015 IDR77
Residual Income1,159 IDR1,165 IDR1,210 IDR76
Growth DCF2,448 IDR4,884 IDR8,343 IDR75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF2,464 IDR5,104 IDR9,015 IDR77
Owner Earnings485.87 IDR1,957 IDR4,135 IDR69
5Y Revenue Exit548.84 IDR1,673 IDR3,069 IDR68
5Y EBITDA Exit1,975 IDR4,487 IDR7,497 IDR72
5Y P/E Exit94.21 IDR776.56 IDR1,467 IDR65
10Y Revenue Exit1,199 IDR2,420 IDR4,040 IDR64
10Y EBITDA Exit2,111 IDR4,302 IDR7,364 IDR66
10Y P/E Exit963.93 IDR1,820 IDR2,837 IDR62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd502.44 IDR1,984 IDR2,694 IDR64
Lynch FV490.32 IDR700.46 IDR910.60 IDR61
PEG = 1.0490.32 IDR700.46 IDR910.60 IDR57
EPV469.04 IDR823.17 IDR1,122 IDR71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM475.26 IDR884.23 IDR1,252 IDR67
DDM Multi-Stage475.26 IDR793.95 IDR941.24 IDR67
Multiples
P/E Multiple775.83 IDR1,034 IDR1,293 IDR63
P/S Multiple942.07 IDR1,256 IDR1,570 IDR58
P/B Multiple1,538 IDR2,051 IDR2,564 IDR55
EV/EBIT1,375 IDR2,646 IDR3,916 IDR63
EV/EBITDA1,657 IDR3,022 IDR4,387 IDR65
EV/Revenuen/an/a297.58 IDR50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)736.92 IDR987.47 IDR1,474 IDR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF2,448 IDR4,884 IDR8,343 IDR75
Rev-Margin DCF548.84 IDR1,720 IDR3,177 IDR68
Economic Profit
Residual Income1,159 IDR1,165 IDR1,210 IDR76
ROIC Compounder469.04 IDR823.17 IDR1,122 IDR70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E697.59 IDR996.56 IDR1,296 IDR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.9% vs −3.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.5% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Medco Energi Internasional Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside+41.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)27.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medco Energi Internasional Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEDC
Frequently asked questions
Is Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,693 IDR versus a price of 1,200 IDR, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MEDC?
Our model-based fair value for Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 1,693 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,200 IDR.
What is the quality score of MEDC?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,693 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 989.82 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,116 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,693 IDR, about +41% upside versus a price of 1,200 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 989.82 IDR, optimistic scenario 2,116 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Medco Energi Internasional Tbk pay a dividend?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk pays a dividend of 36.21 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 79.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.88 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medco Energi Internasional Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEDC use?
Our models discount Medco Energi Internasional Tbk at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medco Energi Internasional Tbk that is +1.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk grew +17.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (+1.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.86 %: that much free cash flow Medco Energi Internasional Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medco Energi Internasional Tbk it is 1,693 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 1,200 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, MEDC trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,200 IDR, fair value 1,693 IDR, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,200 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,693 IDR). For Medco Energi Internasional Tbk the two are 492.89 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medco Energi Internasional Tbk worth?
The market values Medco Energi Internasional Tbk at about 31.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 1,200 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 1,693 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEDC?
Our models span a range for Medco Energi Internasional Tbk: cautious scenario 989.82 IDR, base 1,693 IDR, optimistic 2,116 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 1,200 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEDC?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,693 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of MEDC?
The PEG ratio of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 0.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEDC from its 52-week high?
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk trades at 1,200 IDR, about 38% below its 52-week high of 1,942 IDR and 17% above the low of 1,025 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,693 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medco Energi Internasional Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medco Energi Internasional Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 1,200 IDR, calculated fair value 1,693 IDR (+41%), Quality Score 46/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEDC calculated?
We run Medco Energi Internasional Tbk through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 1,693 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Medco Energi Internasional Tbk currently trades 29% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 1,200 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 1,693 IDR, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medco Energi Internasional Tbk right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (989.82 IDR to 2,116 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) come from?
Earnings per share at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The market capitalisation of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 31.1T IDR (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Earnings per share at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk are 230.89 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The dividend yield of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 3.0% (payout 15.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The net margin of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
The operating margin of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is 37.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Revenue at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is growing +27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC)?
Earnings per share at Medco Energi Internasional Tbk are growing +14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) carry?
The net debt of Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is $3.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026